That institutional inertia, i.e. the airtight legal architecture and bureaucratic path dependence, is the decisive factor in the US-Israel relationship.
And I dont believe this at all. Yes, the institutional inertia is a factor, but Israel has had such a chokehold on some politicians that it goes way beyond this. We are in a position now where the US is depleting its own missile defense in a war that serves no obvious benefits for anyone except Israel.
Re AIPAC, consider that it is a human organisation run by humans with very human judgements that are neither perfect nor 100% rational. Yet, they have been extremely competent in shaping elite opinion and supporting So yes, they want "their" candidates to win. But even if they don't, the US-Israel relationship would still be protected by institutional inertia.
This is interesting. So we are supposed to believe that hundreds of millions are being spent by what is arguably the most successful lobbying operation to ever exist, and it is all for no reason at all? Because nothing can change! Yeah, I am going to trust Aipacs judgement on this, over yours.
rudig
18d ago
I suspect know AOC is not quite as incorruptible as you would have me believe
I dont think she is incorruptible at all. However there are multiple people in line to take her mantle as leader of the left if she does not deliver. Remember AOC crawled back to DSA this year to ask for their endorsement and promised not to support the iron dome. This is after they had un-endorsed her over this. She quite obviously did this because she sees where the wind is blowing, and was worried Mamdani would outshine her as the standard bearer of the left.
Building a case gradually" suggests that you're winning tangible stepping-stone victories along the path
Yes, and winning multiple pro-Palestinian senators + winning primaries against pro-Israel incumbents in congress in one midterm, would be one of these stepping stones.
successful political movement for change is so laughable This is a clear example that you are in a echo-chamber, which is a vibe I get from many zionists these days.
rudig
18d ago
There seems to be a motte and bailey in your argument. The fact that AOC cannot completely over night turn Israel into a pariah, does not mean that she (or someone like her) cannot take serious steps to disadvantage Israel.
Aipac is spending 100 million or more each cycle now to keep their representatives in congress and senate. That is a big increase from previously. They are quite obviously doing this because "their" candidate winning is important to keep the rest of Dems in line.
these movements rarely impact foreign policy
I think we will see, but a DSA member winning statewide in a swing state (which seems possible at this point) is a rare moment indeed. It quite obviously will have knock-on effects.
rudig
18d ago
Comparisons with BLM are illustrative.
No they are not, because support for BLM rose in the weeks after George Floyds death, and then within a few month fell off a cliff. Support for ending aid to Israel is on the rise for 3 continuous years.
Let's say AOC secures both the Dem nomination and the presidency. At the end of her first term (in 2032) do you honestly think relations between the US and Israel will have significantly changed in any way?
Yes, it will quite obviously entirely change the US policies towards the whole of the Middle East, including Israels enemies. If you are in denial about this, I suspect you are in a minority, even among zionists.
Aipac is spending 40 million on one senate race in Michigan, and they spent 30 million to primary Thomas Massie.
Okay, but what has any of this actually accomplished for the Palestinian people with which the movement is ostensibly so concerned?
Well like any movement, they build their case gradually. See the pro-life movement.
rudig
18d ago
The pro-Palestinian movement in the US is absolutely an underdog compared to the zionist one, but have been very successful in shaping public opinion against Israel in the past few years.
Aipac now routinely have to spend tens of millions for their candidate to win, and the ads mostly dont even mention Israel, because they know it is a losing position in most of the country. As we know from many culture war issues, elite consensus can hold on for a while against overwhelming public disapproval, but usually not forever.
Israel have been a rallying cry for the leftist insurgents in the party and many democrats have already fallen in line, and are promising to never take aipac money again. If the august primaries goes well for the DSA types, I expect AOC to be the dem frontrunner for 2028.
rudig
18d ago
I dont see how him being Moroccan changes anything. Living in an antisemitic society is not the same as being a part of a successful political movement for change.
Suffice it to say I think he has more than a passing familiarity with the movement.
Im sure there are many lolcows among protestors, but do zionist like Meshkout ever stop to think why the American public have moved sharply against Israel in recent years, even accounting for this? Could it be that people like himself, and other online warriors like Destiny and Ben Shapiro are even more off-putting?
Dems and indys, and basically every voter group under the age of 50, have adopted the pro-palestinian movements most important political goals according to nearly every poll on the matter, so all Meshkout is revealing himself as a zionist zealot.
rudig
18d ago
I have asked a few palestine supporters how they think palenstine might treat the Jews if they were suddenly in charge.
I could write a long reply, but to keep it short:
I dont want to use my tax money to make sure jews are the ones who dominate Palestinians and not the other way around.
From a humanitarian perspective, I would prefer if they find some workable 2-state solution. There are plenty of Palestinians in the West Bank who live with constant harassment from IDF and settlers, and they mostly try to live their lives the best they can. I think that shows some promise towards peaceful coexistence being possible. Muslims and Christians also coexist in the West Bank much better than with Israeli settlers.
But again, even if it is not possible, I dont particularly get riled up over possible future bloodshed among Israelis
rudig
18d ago
No doubt there are numerous movements meeting the descriptions above, but for me the first that comes to mind is the pro-Palestine/anti-Zionist movement.
This is quite weak from Meshkout and gives the impression that he has never been a part of a movement. The comparision to NAACP is particularily hilarious, because the black liberation movement had plenty of radical elements, and the pro-palestinian movement also have orgs like IMEU that stick to respectable retoric.
To take a more recent example:
The pro-life movement including very wide ranging views on women/society:
-girl-bosses like Amy Coney Barrett
-the Quiverfull
-mormons
-some who want to fight abortions by increasing access to contraceptives, other who want to teach chastity culture.
-even som democrats
But they all had one overarching "Abortion is murder. Period. Abortion should be outlawed".
I could make the same case for the civil rights movement, MAGA, hell the american zionist movement is full of contradictory positions.
The pro-Palestinian movement is, like the pro-lifers aligned, on 1 very potent political cause: "Israel is committing genocide. We should not give Israel any of our money".
Thats it, that is the winning message according to every poll, and before that is achieved the movement is not going to fracture. If it is achieved, meaning zionist zealots are reduced to mere 20-30% of congress/senate, I expect the cause to quickly lose steam outside of select pockets.
rudig
23d ago
We have the stats from the Netherlands, non-Western, non-East Asian migrants are usually net losses in tax, they comprise the bulk of the migrant pool. Mass immigration is expensive!
I suspect the solution from many of these countries will be to pivot to Indian immigration. Most of the culture war in Europe is focused on muslims more than immigrants as a whole, and the thought leaders on the right seems quite comfortable with Indians.
rudig
1mo ago
The first part is entirely wrong. Ukrainians got collective protection immediately in 2022, and soon many will be eligable for permanent residency. The only talk now is about men who could serve in the military, and even then my guess is it would be a small minority who would actually be "deported" and the countries most likely to do it would be neighbouring ones like Poland.
rudig
1mo ago
Palestinians not being ethnically cleansed from their ancestral homeland is good for everyone including Europe. The only exception is Israel.
European governments going hard against Israel and trying to support palestinians "where they are" instead of allowing more MENA refugees into Europe, would be a great policy that would appease alot of the bleeding heart left, but alas they prefer to do the opposite.
rudig
1mo ago
The problem is that even the people who are agreeing with me are bots! And now I cant even get any meaningful insight from them. I have tried to find out how significant the opposition to data centers are in Michigan for example (not just polling, but actual hard opposition that would make people change their support for a candidate). Obviously the anger is real, but how widespread, does it go beyond leftist for example? Will Whitmer support tank due to this (she is very pro data centers)
But it all drowns out in the bot wars between supporters of the 3 candidates in the senate dem primary who accuse each other of being jihadist or zionist shills. The governors race is obviously more important for this issue, but since that race has a clear front runner, there is much less discourse.
rudig
1mo ago
I would be more motivated to fight against this if bot-infestation was not such a massive issue on social media.
You say that many are accused of being "foreign shills" on social media, but is that really wrong? We already know how lopsided posting on reddit is (with 1% of users generating 40% of posts), and if you throw in some well funded astroturf campaign, you have basically replaced all intersting common dialogue with something entirely else.
I increasingly find social media so exhausting, there is so little room for actually exchanging ideas. Post are usually pushing an agenda, or increasingly just bots arguing with each other. Of course I dont actively support censorship or online ID-laws, but also do have less fucks to give.
rudig
2mo ago
I have seen some people say that Maine is a purple, or slightly-blue state. If it elects this guy to the Senate, then I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the state is quite a bit more left than that.
Left and right are not always the best words to describe these populations. Many voter groups have ideosyncrytic beliefs that can fit with both the far left and far right. No party is socially right wing, economically left wing and isolationist, but voters increasingly are. Due to the economic fallout of the Iran war economic matters are very salient right now, which would benefit a guy like Platner, particularily in a state like Maine with a less religious population.
The typical swing voter probably has a negative view of both parties, war, immigration, crime and billionaires, yet somehow political strategist keep envisioning them as a love child between Hillary Clinton and Liz Cheney.
rudig
3mo ago
I have a feeling youre not american, because there is no way the pro-Palestinian side is the most unhinged. We literally have a congressman who tweetet: "Nuke Gaza", and a more than one senator who has said they main motivation for doing their job is helping Israel. The pro-Israel side started a multi-months harassment campaign and send death threats to a christian childrens youtuber because she mentioned Gaza in a fundraiser for Save the Children. Ackman tried to get a fellow finance guy fired because his daughter had protested Israel.
This is nothing like George Floyd, where I totally agree than republicans came out much better. The only way you would think this is if youre opinion is entirely filtered through zionist sources.
I do not believe that it was all just some random thing when from all the conflicts and all the suffering of women and children in the world right now Outside of 50 leftist on 10 campuses who are communists, and possibly even paid by China, the reactions are entirely related to the insane degree that the American establishment supports Israels crimes. Do you think someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Theo Von are influenced by leftist media bubbles? Then how come their reaction is nearly identical to that of a bunch of lib moms?
rudig
3mo ago
People like Theo Von and Marjorie Taylor Greene absolutely come off as sympathetic to Palestinians, definitively more than most democrat politicians. Even Tucker seems supportive of the pro-Palestinian struggle.
rudig
3mo ago
Support for Israel has taken a nose dive in every group except republicans over 50. If you think this is all due to Third Worlders I dont know what to tell you. People are increasingly seing the behavior of Israel and being put off by it.
rudig
3mo ago
The control is because they can easily block it, and by not doing so so far they have shown restraint.
Except it is probably more complicated given that Israel is an ally
this is something people dont want and its not just leftist, but its increasingly common to believe the US relationship with Israel is more beneficial to Israel than vice versa. The US is such a loyal and unconditional ally to Israel due to the influence of the Israel lobby and zionists.
[https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/4/20/voters-in-multiple-states-say-iran-war-benefits-israel-and-that-us-military-aid-to-the-country-should-be-halted](This is just one recent poll)
The republicans might be going through a generational loss in the Midterms due to how unpopular the war in Iran and subsequent cost of living crises will be. Everything they fought for might be evaporated, and there might be a generational rift in the party that might upend all power constellations. Democrats arent much better, but are probably likely to benefit from not being the ones who
Besides many European countries stood up to their American ally during the Iraq war and dont think anyone looks back at that and thinks that was a bad thing?
I am also for instance pissed that there is any help also sent to Gaza. I do not want to have anything to do with that awful place, it is not my responsibility. Let Egyptians and Saudis and other neighbors do that part. This is fine. Are you American? Does your country send substantial aid to Gaza?
I am horrified by too many things, such as genocide in Darfur, and the overall region of Sahel and other things.
Interesting, do you want to increase aid to Darfur? Would you vote for a politician who took money from a pro-Janjaweed group and defended their actions?
I am curious. None of your leftie pro-Palestine friends ever used the term colonizer, colonized or colonialism in relation to this shit?
The term colonization is absolutely used about the West Bank and I dont see a problem with that. But again you overestimating the degree to which discourse is about ideology. Most people are just upset about Israels behavior and the suffering of innocents in Palestine.
rudig
3mo ago
If youre land is already being illegally occupied by Israel I dont think you can in any way be accused of attacking first.
How exactly is Iran's land being occupied by Israel, illegally or not
Israel is illegally occupying and settling Palestinian and Syrian land while bombing them and claiming selfdefence.
Iran has been relentlessly and aggressively attacking Israel for many years.
Israel and the US staged a massive bombing campaign against Iran last year, and got barely any attack back. Iran has shown quite a bit of restrain vis-a-vis Israel actually.
Im not going to reply to anymore of your posts because there is nothing Israel do that you will not defend or find justified, so there really is not point in this discussion.
rudig
3mo ago
If youre land is already being illegally occupied by Israel I dont think you can in any way be accused of attacking first.
Well do you agree that Israel's attack against Iran was an entirely foreseeable consequence of Iran's aggressive and relentless proxy attacks against Israel over the years?
Blockading a strait that you control is very different from bombing another country in an attempt at regime change.
The billions of dollars of aid that we give to Israel is "material", and the US depleting its missile-interceptors to defend Israel in a war started on Israels behest is materially good for Israel and bad for America.
I have to say the confidence that you have that there is nothing that could ever change the US-Israel relationship is interesting. It would also indicate that all zionist orgs who are freaking out about Mamdani or Ms Rachel, and the Ellisons buying CBS to turn it into a zionist propaganda hub, are just dumb. The should just understood like you do, that there is nothing they can do to effect the relationship between the US and Israel.
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