DirtyWaterHotDog
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User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
19hr ago
You may call them reasons, but the people will always view them as excuses.
DirtyWaterHotDog
20hr ago
you have to learn to ignore the noise. There are good discussions on here. The rhetoric has gotten heated the last few weeks. Most times, it's less .... heartless.
Personally, I find 2026's /r/SSC to be full of wannabe Mensa types. The internet is dead. a healthy dose of diverse echo-chambers is the next best thing.
DirtyWaterHotDog
21hr ago
DirtyWaterHotDog
21hr ago
Fair.
Still think Darwin award behavior isn't reason enough to be shot. The average person is not very bright. The system should be built with an assumption of dysfunctional behavior from randos.
DirtyWaterHotDog
21hr ago
understand that the purpose of this sort of protest is bad optics
Yeah, that's politics. Why are you surprised ? The adversary baits you, but do you need to bite ? The protests are getting more heated, because Trump is biting onto the bait.
The US is maximally polarized, but it has been for a while. The other party does everything it can to block their adversary. It's Mitch blocking Garland's confirmation. It's red governors banning blue city policies. It's business as usual.
In Canada, the farmers protests were clearly a conservative bait that Trudeau bit into, and it caused his downfall. The farmer's protest is another example of a political torpedo that would have brought Modi down in India. He avoided a few baits, primary among them was Sikhs replacing the Indian flag on the red fort. But no. No anti-protest rubber guns, no tear gas, nothing. He held his nerve, and IMO, it saved his govt. He eventually reformed the bill to involve state-by-state adoption and had to take an L. But, it could have been worse.
Look, as a kid, when I made fun of my sibling, he'd eventually snap and break something. I'd get punished for instigating, but he'd get a bigger punishment for giving in and breaking something (I promise we are very tight now, and I believe I have been a good brother on the balance). Point is, it doesn't matter what the bait is. The individual is still responsible for how they respond. Humans have an intuitive smell for this. Govts, laws or individuals, it doesn't matter. Biting onto to bait makes you a sucker. You may call them reasons, but the people will always view them as excuses.
DirtyWaterHotDog
21hr ago
Yes, they have an agenda. But I couldn't find the detentions and arrests bar chart anywhere else.
The statistics I am interested in, were still sound. I deliberately highlighted the 3x number which is over an entire year, instead of the rather ambitious 2026 projection. Cause aside, 7 deaths in 15 days is anomalously high and warrants explanation.
That's usually how it goes. The dirt is usually unearthed by those who want to bring you down. Back during the excesses of the work movement, opposing statistics required swimming through doomer incel sewers. Just because they wanted to radicalize me into giving up didn't mean their numbers were wrong.
DirtyWaterHotDog
21hr ago
Chernobyl happened, does this mean nuclear power is evil or forever forbidden?
No, but we recognized that there is such a thing as a nuclear plant that's been built too haphazardly. Just like Trump's expansion of ICE.
Note, ICE was still deporting about 60% of the current amount of people during Biden's terms. They mostly dressed in official clothing (vs plain clothes), avoided masks and avoided overt display of large weapons. the criticisms of ICE have to do with the 2025 avatar of it. Not the institution that existed before.
Car accidents happen and vehicular manslaughter happens
To be fair, I am very anti-car, pro-transit and pro self-driving cars. I say this begrudgingly, because I love engineering cars and consider them the pinnacle of late-20th century art. But, fast cars should be driven on the track, not the road. Until recently, banning cars was impractical. But the US has been extremely reckless in tolerating a 3-4x higher automobile death rate than other developed nations.
while carrying a gun
What's wrong with carrying a gun in a public place in Minnesota ? Isn't are American LEO not trained to handle situations with gun-owners peacefully ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
22hr ago
Instead of luck, maybe the rightists could use some competence instead ? They have dug their own graves.
I bet if ICE roamed in suits with slicked back hair, they wouldn't have half the issues they're facing. Instead, they chose maximally aggressive optics, and they're getting the obvious reaction. You expect Americans to view ICE favorably when they dress and act like bank robbers from a crime procedural ?
Were they forced to to digitally alter images of people to make them uglier ? Was the white house forced to post AI memes about detention centers with alligators in them ? The right is setting themselves up to fail for no good reason.
Either way, ICE's operation isn't particularly effective either. The number of convicted criminals being detained has remained unchanged. There is a modest increase in detentions for those pending charges, but nothing ground breaking. At the same time, the amount of arrests (esp. of non criminals) has skyrocketed. The deaths in custody numbers tripled, and 2026 has gotten off to a horrifying start. More people have died in ICE custody in January (15 days) than died in the entire year of 2023 !! (This warrants 2 exclamations)
With the Somali scandal, Trump had a solid narrative for the midterms. If MAGA loses the mid-terms, it is because they are both incompetent and intensely dislikeable. Hilarious that Trump came to power by swinging non-white voters and gen Z. Now that the same voters are turning their back on him ( in polls at least), it is somehow a sign of the woke mind-virus and immigration led anti-Americanism.
Reddit is not real.
That being said, I am surprised that the US doesn't have more violent rebellions. That's what the 2nd amendment is for right ? From a purely strategic perspective, say you believe that Trump's people are a few years away from turning the US into a dictatorship. In that case, wouldn't you want to be violent before they consolidate all power and not after ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
23hr ago
The video looks BAAAAD. Would like to see resident Trump supporters explain this one.
DirtyWaterHotDog
3d ago
I visit France often. It is much safer than the US.
Marseille - France's stabbiest city has a lower homicide rate than SF or Austin. About the same as NYC and 17x better St louis.
Street protests and setting things on fire is how French people connect with their heritage. It's a performative French revolution. It's fiery, but they never destroy infrastructure like riots in the US. (Whether that be due to protests or a super bowl win)
Some suburbs are no go zones, but that's better than inner city no-go zones that a stranger can innocently walk into.
There is an issue with Parisian gangs and Mediterranean gangs. The later are a pan European problem. The former looks like a form of torture French people love inflicting on tourists to avoid over tourism. (Only partly sarcastic here)
DirtyWaterHotDog
3d ago
The Chinese, ever so respectful of American competence, would never pick an overt saboteur as an agent.
Chinese CIA, to maintain cover, picks a competent administrator as agent.
Goal is to only do the bare minimum and occasionally sidetrack projects as sabotage.
Agent becomes president and starts doing the basic stuff with only occasional sabotage.
still more than any president has done.
America start flourishing even more.
Americans love him and elect him another time.
I'd watch that film.
DirtyWaterHotDog
3d ago
Not even close. The high literacy and civic engagement are a civilizational inheritance. It took hundreds, if not thousands of years to build.
The clan systems are embedded in Arab and Afghan societies in a manner that isn't comparable to anything in the west. Even during peak colonialism, Britain gave up on trying to control Afghanistan. Can't control a group that has no institutions what so ever. Arabs are a bit different. They had it, but after the mongols burned down Baghdad, middle-eastern Arabs did not have a unifying civilization for a very long time.
DirtyWaterHotDog
3d ago
Fair. I too have concluded that democracy needs some base conditions to work.
Tribal clan systems (Arabs, Afghans) are incompatible with democracy. Pre-industrial states struggle to balance democracy and essential growth. Democracy and violent societies don't work.
DirtyWaterHotDog
3d ago
- Joined December 2025.
- 118 comments
- dislikes Indians
- doesn't believe in democracy
- is fascist
Dude slow down. TheMotte is already in a MAGA spiral. It isn't intentional, the forum is well moderated. But, the median individual is a right-wing American and left leaning non-Americans are forced to have thicker skin. We've lost enough intellectual diversity through splinter events. There's no need to make this place more hostile.
Also welcome to the forum. I am one of the Indians here. Please get better at profiling. I await a moderate amount of hate, phrased in a civic manner.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
Canada's position as a middling power is self-inflicted.
Post-melt, Canada's geographic position is as strong as the US. It too is a blessed land, that can sustain any level of ambition.
They can pump more oil. They can build arctic ports. They can mine rare earths. They can be agriculturally self-sufficient. They have some many options. They even have a sufficient number of elite engineering institutions to sustain local excellence. European and Asian middling-powers are constrained by what their land can support. Canada has no such limitation.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
Vance is being discarded in favor of Rubio. There is a reason he was absent (and it isn't the pregnancy announcement) today.
Rubio is likeable, clearly smart, kinda white and kinda hispanic. He is one of the few pre-Trump Republicans who survived the purge and doesn't have a brown wife.
I have takes alright. I know someone at WEF and was getting minute by minute updates on leaders storming out and heated water cooler discussions. Stayed up the whole night watching this mess. Worth it.
High level : I am upgrading "Don't put the devil on the wall" to a tier 1 quote. Trump's anxieties and reckless tantrums are creating the very conditions that the US is trying to delay.
I don't have one takeaway, but a few unconnected thoughts.
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Trump's cabinet doesn't have a ounce of Trump's charisma. Even at his most nasty, Trump is funny, likeable and selectively cruel. Trump's cabinet wields the same sledgehammer but reeks of resentment. I believe more than Trump, Europe is uniquely disgusted by his cabinet. The list of likeable cabinet members starts and ends with Rubio. Trump can see this, and Rubio has clearly been elevated to his 2nd in command in public appearances. I believe JD's absence was not a coincidence.
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Going into 2025, MAGA kneecapped ascendant right-wing movements in Canada, UK and France. As a result, Trump is now negotiating with maximally adversarial partners in Carney, Starmer and Macron. US-Canada relations appear to have taken the largest hit. In trying to secure trade-routes in the distant North, Trump may have opened the salient opening across its entire Northern frontier.
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Western globalists spoke with clarity. First time for everything. To collectively articulate the end of Pax-Americana is a big deal. Words need to be backed with actions, but these are words we haven't heard spoken before. Discussions around Europe's lack of NATO funding, existing as a vassal state, disinvestment from the US & reverse technology transfer were anomalously candid.
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India finally gets a break. Trump 2 and Ukraine-sanctions left India on a weird island by itself. Turns out, when Europe was looking for an uncontroversial partner, being unhyphenated was a perk. To match US and China, it makes sense for Europe to strike a deal with India. Back-channel oil deals have been active for a while. But the the public and enthusiastic association with India will feel new to India, especially Modi's India.
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I don't buy the China partnership narrative. EU's remaining industry is under grave threat from China. Canada can't onshore Chinese technology this close to the US border. The US will intervene. Appeals to China felt like boogeyman narratives meant to spook the US. That being said, if Donroe stays entangled in the Atlantic, then China may pounce on Taiwan and the conflict may end with a whimper.
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I am bullish on France. In the absence of NATO, it will become the de-facto leader of the EU. They have healthy fertility rates, nukes, state capacity for large infrastructure (HSR, nuclear plants), native entertainment industry and independent full-spectrum military. Macron may get kicked out soon, but ngl, the sunglasses were cool.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
Hah, took the test. Got the same score and same tensions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I believe you are right. A Morally consistent individual can perform evil actions. There is no contradiction.
Heck, that's the narrative crux of the Bhagvad Gita and the Mahabharata. For those unfamiliar with the canon, the climactic philosophical dialogue sees Krishna (god incarnate, head strategist and moral authority) convincing Arjuna (moral warrior) to commit acts of evil (kin-slaying) while keeping his morality intact. To drive the distinction further, Krishna later convinces Arjuna to perform an act that is both amoral and evil. (killing a nigh-invulnerable soldier while he is disarmed his back is turned). This time, the book forces you to feel collective disgust at this action.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
If AI happens, then then Mag 7 and S&P 500 will go to the moon. Keep money in stock market, and mint $$. China may rise and the rest of the US economy may suffer. But, tech companies will do well.
If AI fails and not much else happens, then world won't change. US hegemony will continue, 401ks will continue to be useful. If you are are worried about 401ks, then move them to RothIRAs. Pay tax now. But institutions won't collapse. If AI doesn't happen then China's population pyramid will doom them in 30-40 years. Assuming Trump doesn't single handedly destroy Pax-Americana, the US should be able to weather the Chinese onslaught.
US population pyramid stays well above where Japan is today till at least 2100. So, at worst, fertility collapse will look like 2025 Japan. Pretty good if you ask me.
making memories with family and friends now
Always a good idea. I regret not spending time with my grandad when he was lucid. I will likely regret not spending enough time with mom and dad when their health starts suffering. I am making more than my parents or I ever thought I'd make, and yet I am more stressed than ever. Money has no brought me happiness. The people around me have.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
Recorded a (trial) episode for a podcast (more like long form video).
Have the gimmick down. I cook, I talk. Effectively an ill-prepared and long-form version of Adam Ragusea.
Episode 1 is an hour long video of me cooking. I cook TomYum soup. Active time involves instructions and basics dos-and-donts. I fill passive waiting time by covering the history of tom-yum soup & the history of Thailand. I was there for vacation this Christmas, so the details are fresh in my mind.
On reflection, the recording is surprisingly decent. I expected it to be unwatchable. Need to say fewer 'ums'. I had previously beaten (literally) that habit out of me. Turns out it can always come back. But generally, it's alright. Haven't uploaded it yet. May never upload it. Still, technically, I followed through on a 2026 resolution. Good enough for me. I used to perform skit-comedy in university. It's been a decade since I did something like this. Did not expect it to be so nerve-wracking to be facing a camera again. I'm conditioned to find podcasting cringe. First minute was odd, but it felt natural once I got into the groove.
For future episodes, I want to decouple my cooking from my yapping. Cooking is a neat visual gimmick and hard-limits the runtime. The topics are meant to be outlets recent chat-gpt spirals.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4d ago
is PRC... Good?
Best run Govt. of the last 50 years for sure.
With that said, there are credible arguments I could be a devil advocate for.
wildly economically successful with a dynamic tech sector
How much of the spoils are experienced by the workers ? Intense Darwinian competitions means margins are paper thin. Winning comes with none of the stability or lifestyle perks that make economic victories desirable to Americans. Chinese winners get rewarded with more competition, sleepless nights and even narrower margins. Perpetual crunch-time sounds like hell, and Chinese citizens appear to agree. When given the chance, they hop over toe western companies that offer better life-style at the risk of slower innovation.
proud of its' culture and heritage
Post great leap forward there wasn't much culture or heritage left. Yes, China has a recognizable civilizational identity that's distinct from the west. But, modern China has little in common with erstwhile Chinese culture or heritage.
willing to forego
You'll never know what they're willing to do, because the Chinese never reveal their true thoughts to a westerner. I've had close PRC Chinese friends and they refuse to give me even a hint on what they think about the PRC or Xi. Get them drunk, high, vulnerable, doesn't matter. I don't know if it is brainwashing or defense against the dark arts. But, one things for sure. Neither you nor I know what the will of the Chinese people actually is.
forego some comfort
This is where it's important to draw lines. Is PRC China Xi's China, Deng's China or Mao's China. Where does the lineage begin ? Mao's consolidation, state capacity and land reforms were necessary for Deng's economic liberalization. If it starts at Mao, then 30 million deaths is not 'foregoing some comfort'. That's the greatest genocide since the Mongol conquests. It's simply impossible to talk about PRC China without talking about a Holocaust x 5 genocide event.
Japan, SK, Taiwan and Singapore have all done better than PRC China per-capita. If their genetic makeup is mostly similar, then PRC China's achievements don't seem THAT incredible.
DirtyWaterHotDog
5d ago
Congrats ! Hope it is a role that you're able to thrive in.
DirtyWaterHotDog
10d ago
Been monitoring it. My current read is.
- In number of protestors, Ayatollah's Iran has seen larger protests before. IRGC has quelled protests of larger scale.
- In terms of violence, these are the most violent protests Iran has seen since the revolution. This is in terms of property damage, outright protestor violence and retaliatory shooting.
- Protests were getting more intense until mid last week. Conflicting reports on scale of protests this week.
Protests are materially new in a few ways:
- Khamenei is old (this time for real) and has no true heir lined up
- Tehran water crisis is real. Civilians are stressed.
- Legitimacy of regime materially affected after
- For the first(?) time, protestors are chanting in support of regime change
Note, the Bangladeshi protests that led to regime change went on for 2 months, until Hasina was eventually pushed out. It took ~4 months in SriLanka. Iran is not an Arab nation, I think recent regime change in developing/middle income stable nations is a better proxy for what a revolutionary protest might look like, compared to Arab spring. In Nepal, banning internet forced more people into the streets, not fewer. So, hard to assign a positive or negative signal based on just the internet blackout. The main difference is that the IRGC is totally loyal to the Ayatollah, so an early military coup to limit causalities is unlikely.
You're right. I have a bad habit of using hyperbole to introduce the dynamism of speech into my writing. Been working on it.
It is highly polarized. And that's bad enough.
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