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someone_from_poland


				

				

				
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joined 2023 January 17 04:01:11 UTC

themotte.org was entertaining for a while but for me it just proves that contrarianism for sake of contrarianism is a bad strategy.

Contrarian is far more likely to be wrong than correct or useful.


				

User ID: 2097

someone_from_poland


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2023 January 17 04:01:11 UTC

					

themotte.org was entertaining for a while but for me it just proves that contrarianism for sake of contrarianism is a bad strategy.

Contrarian is far more likely to be wrong than correct or useful.


					

User ID: 2097

when they could have negotiated a similiar diplomatic postion prior to the invasion with far less cost to everyone.

That the war is an idiotic idea was obvious from start. Sadly, not to Putin.

And when one side is ready to wage war of conquest, than the other can choose war or surrender and occupation - but not peace.

but I'm not sure why people are insistent or implying that the US has been actively seeking peace in contrast.

And my claim is that USA was not antagonistic enough and that Russians for example fooled Obama into Russian reset (or that Americans fooled themselves into it on their own).

So sure, maybe the US was not actively seeking war, but at best they weren't really taking efforts to ensure peaceble relations either.

What they were supposed to do? One option would be helping Russia to keep occupied areas after USSR has fallen but I am not convinced that it would end better in any aspect.

USA can be blamed for many wars, but here Russia jumped into it on their own due to believing own propaganda and trying to rebuild its empire. Russia is not entitled to USSR-sized sphere of influence.

And the complaining about "Poles for not taking their 'share' of refugees" lost any standing after taking millions of Ukrainians, with over 100 000 daily crossings (IIRC) at beginning of the war.

The Hungarians and the Poles didn't feel like footing the bill for building camps or detainment centres,

And more importantly were not enthusiastic about recreating Swedish or French or German migration problems. War refugees from Ukraine were welcomed, economical migrants from Somalia were not.

I don’t think the US can be exhausted. We are not a poor nation.

Exhaustion as in "according to polls stopping funding Ukraine gives us 2 extra percentage points"

Natos mercenaries

[citation needed]

for example there's talk of Poland absorbing part of the western region of Ukraine

That is coming only from blatant pro Russia-propaganda. Notably, in Poland it is treated less seriously than proposals to take Moscow by land invasion. And the second one is proposed by narrow group of edgy teenagers.

If you treated either of this "talks" seriously then you need to reevaluate sources of your info.

I don’t think the mercenary label for US interest is misleading.

Describing Ukraine as deciding to be involved in war because they are paid for this is not matching what is actually happening. At all.

So it is heavily misleading.

He wanted Russia to be accepted into 'the West' (or I should say NATO).

Obviously. Given that purpose of NATO was to counter Russia[1] (for very good reason) and Russian aggression, especially in Europe, then getting fox into henhouse and wrecking it would be a great idea. For Putin and Russian imperialism.

Fortunately it has not happened.

[1] At least from perspective of Poland.

but as a peer

Have you read source that you provided? This is untrue claim and contradicted by your own source.

If we can’t defend Ukraine, why would we be able to protect our Asian Allies in Korea or Japan?

From realpolitik perspective the use of war in Ukraine for NATO and USA is not defending Ukraine. It is defending NATO countries and inflicting damage on Russia by helping Ukraine to defend itself.

Also, Japan, really? Attempt to invade Japan would have hilarious effects.

Maybe someone researched this already - can you recommend decent way to donate funds to Ukrainians?

peak maximally useful military machines are generally from the 70s + a few cheap modernisations on top such as a 1 dollar gps/glonas chip

Are you actually serious about this? Or is it some joke? Or is it "effectiveness over resources, assuming that soldiers and their training costs nothing"?

Are you claiming that it applies to such types of military machines as planes, satellites, night vision, AWACS, drones and communication gear?

And AT, ASAT, PGM etc?

For what your claim applies? Definitely not for static machine guns (here peak is earlier), maybe for standard issue riffles. Anything else?

What kind of inept denial is this? You seriously believe Russia will run out of tanks before Ukraine? You are wrong by multiple order of magnitudes.

Multiple? Can you clarify what you think is the difference of tank count between Ukraine and Russia?

Are you aware of what "order of magnitude" typically means?

Are you claiming that Russia has 100x or 1000x more tanks thank Ukraine? Because that is a quite brave claim.

Poland is still struggling with its communist legacy--corruption, lack of civic engagement, watered down national identity

I am not sure is "watered down national identity" a real problem in Poland. Other two are problems, but ones with noticeable progress.

This is far more attractive to women than saying "please say yes to sex with me" or any variant of that.

[citation needed]

I am not disputing that some get off on it, I am disputing that all or even majority would consider "grab her and drag her into your cave and take her" as actually attractive.

I would expect that more than 99.999% of woman would prefer to not be raped.

This does not mean that they want doormat as partner or someone powerless! But if anyone considers that being rapist is more desirable by woman than equally powerful and attractive etc person that is not a rapist then they are heavily misinformed and dangerous.

I guess that rich, powerful charismatic powerful rapist may be more attractive than poor lame doormat - which is not changing that "rapist" part is not really helping here.

Situation is made worse by people who cannot imagine other expression of masculinity than through a rape, both on male (red pill "how to get prostitute for free" vision of relationship) and female spectrum (bad romance stories).

Russia is not an empire with a real strength, should not be an empire and is not entitled to be an empire.

And even that war would result in less misery than Russia managing to recreate its empire and subjugate central and eastern Europe again.

And for example in https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1616478656863571969 this twitter poster demonstrates being unable to distinguish between "losses and captures confirmed by reliable public info" and "actual losses and captures".

And fails to understand that Russia has more weaponry than Ukraine.

Or is deliberately lying and misleading pro-Russian troll. Or both. Take your pick.

is it true that they've largely restrained from using air power? If so their aircraft resources would seem to be in good shape.

Given that they restrained from it due to being shot down when they tried to use it, I am not sure. On the other hand not sure whether even F-35 would survive for long in area so covered with AA.

Actual rape results in a bad unjustified consequences for someone who was raped, for start.

(there is a good reason why writing or painting media showing or describing rape is considered as distinct from rape)

But still we’ve committed to use over 100b of assets.

Note that it is much, much different from "we are borrowing about 100b to fund Ukraine". To the point that "we are borrowing about 100b to fund Ukraine" claim is untrue.

who have also accused Orbán of wanting a piece of Ukraine..

In case of Hungary it may be not utterly baseless due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zakarpattia_Oblast and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarians_in_Ukraine

The TL;DR is that Ukraine has burned through multiple iterations of armaments and is now reduced to begging for active NATO matériel,

wat?

First of all, they were asking for WW III at the start (AKA no fly zone, AKA "close the sky").

Asking for NATO matériel is also not a new thing. They were asking for modern tanks and planes from start.

And obviously, in large scale war you will burn though armaments. Russia also did this. Ukraine is trying to get supplies from NATO, gets ammo from weird African countries and diesel and shells from Bulgaria. Russia get cruise missiles from Iran and supplies from North Korea.

No idea why either is surprising to anyone, even pro-Russia twitter trolls like Big Serge. It just proves that leadership on either side is not a total idiot and war in ongoing on a large scale.

USG

What you mean by USG here?

chose to fight on the anti-west team except for the 5 years in ww2.

I would rather phrase it as "Hitler kicked them out of his own team and had no choice than cooperate with West"

is there actually any post-1991 evidence that Russia is, in fact, our "long-term adversary", or is it just something that certain people keep repeating to try and meme it into truth?

  1. Not rejected its imperial aspirations and have not even pretended that it will give up "sphere of influence" that includes my country (unlike Germany)

  2. Bombing country next to mine and murdering civilians there and trying to destroy its economy

  3. Doing its best to disrupt global food supply by invading Ukraine and blocking grain shipments (they were strongarmed into suspending this)

  4. Have not clearly rejected USSR as awful and evil failure (unlike Germany with Third Reich)

  5. Repeated use of its position of cheap energy supplier for blackmail

  6. Invading other countries in Europe (they have not got memo that European countries decided that this is not acceptable after WW II mess)

  7. Being so corrupt that they are not usable as ally for example ally against China

  8. Being utterly useless as an ally (as Armenia discovered)

  9. Assassinating people in Europe without even enough decorum to keep it hidden

  10. Repeated extreme war crimes (for example: using hospital list in Syria as target list, Bucha)

Overall Russia is overambitious corrupt, useless as an ally, extremely aggressive lead by idiot that dragged it into a tragic war. That demonstrates it clearly enough even for Germans, but it was obvious already earlier.

And no, Russia is not entitled to empire in the central Europe - nor powerful enough to build one again, at least for now.

The original purpose of NATO was to counter USSR, not Russia. There was no country called 'Russia' in 1949 when it was created.

As far as geopolitics are concerned there is a clear succession from Grand Duchy of Moscow, Tsardom of Russia, Russian Empire, Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic, USSR and Russian Federation.

I use Russia to refer to imperialist, aggressive and problematic country that used to be named USSR and after it got less powerful and lost ability to occupy part of invaded areas rebranded itself to Russian Federation.

I have. Have you? Here's words directly from horse's mouth.

Have you noticed "George Robertson recalls Russian president did not want to wait in line with ‘countries that don’t matter’" line? Exactly the first sentence of the article and clearly presenting that Russia was not ready to get rid of primary problem - its imperialistic ambitions.

And even if we assume that ‘countries that don’t matter’ is misinterpretation and "did not want to wait in line" is understandable... Then "did not want his country to have to go through the usual application process" from the first paragraph below photo is not at all.

Germany managed to give up militaristic imperial ambitions, hopefully Russia will crash and burn during current war enough to do the same and without selling their nukes to Iran or something.

Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining Nato “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner”.

Russia was not ready to be an equal partner, see above.

  1. I do not believe that what you describe happened

  2. If it actually happened then it is outlier of the millioner-with-private-rape island variety

  3. If it happened then "WAT", especially at anyone staying there. I took emergency exists from less degenerated events.

  4. I will close Motte tabs because that is not even entertaining unlike bad takes on Russia