someone_from_poland
themotte.org was entertaining for a while but for me it just proves that contrarianism for sake of contrarianism is a bad strategy.
Contrarian is far more likely to be wrong than correct or useful.
User ID: 2097
but I'm not sure why people are insistent or implying that the US has been actively seeking peace in contrast.
And my claim is that USA was not antagonistic enough and that Russians for example fooled Obama into Russian reset (or that Americans fooled themselves into it on their own).
So sure, maybe the US was not actively seeking war, but at best they weren't really taking efforts to ensure peaceble relations either.
What they were supposed to do? One option would be helping Russia to keep occupied areas after USSR has fallen but I am not convinced that it would end better in any aspect.
USA can be blamed for many wars, but here Russia jumped into it on their own due to believing own propaganda and trying to rebuild its empire. Russia is not entitled to USSR-sized sphere of influence.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
This is far more attractive to women than saying "please say yes to sex with me" or any variant of that.
[citation needed]
I am not disputing that some get off on it, I am disputing that all or even majority would consider "grab her and drag her into your cave and take her" as actually attractive.
I would expect that more than 99.999% of woman would prefer to not be raped.
This does not mean that they want doormat as partner or someone powerless! But if anyone considers that being rapist is more desirable by woman than equally powerful and attractive etc person that is not a rapist then they are heavily misinformed and dangerous.
I guess that rich, powerful charismatic powerful rapist may be more attractive than poor lame doormat - which is not changing that "rapist" part is not really helping here.
Situation is made worse by people who cannot imagine other expression of masculinity than through a rape, both on male (red pill "how to get prostitute for free" vision of relationship) and female spectrum (bad romance stories).
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Girls and feminists now claim this to scare unworthy men from pursuing them. Since the worthy ones will just ignore their claimed victim hood and realize they like male attention.
I am perfectly fine with not having relationship with stupid people with tragically idiotic mind games.
This subset of woman (I really doubt that feminists are over-represented there, BTW) can deal with consequences, people pursuing this strategy will end either with rapes/attempted rapes or in relationship with stupid manipulative people. Does not seem like a good strategy to me.
And anyway: vast majority is actually not interested and "rape them until they like it" is existing only in really bad porn - and not a viable dating strategy.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Actual rape results in a bad unjustified consequences for someone who was raped, for start.
(there is a good reason why writing or painting media showing or describing rape is considered as distinct from rape)
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Yeah, I meant Shahed-136. Probably should refer to it as a drone like everyone else rather than argue that it is closer to shitty cruise missile than shitty drone.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I do not follow Russian sources.
Maybe in this case they has fallen for some absurd claims? Or Korwin is trying to find new topic for hot takes?
Either way as someone from Poland this has basically zero support and is about as likely as annexing Kaliningrad.
I am curious what is your source of that claims.
but to dismiss everything if that turned out to be unsubstantiated is a fallacy.
Definitely, but confidence in such source should be reduced.
when they could have negotiated a similiar diplomatic postion prior to the invasion with far less cost to everyone.
That the war is an idiotic idea was obvious from start. Sadly, not to Putin.
And when one side is ready to wage war of conquest, than the other can choose war or surrender and occupation - but not peace.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I bet that they post something of 50 Stalin variety complaining about Trump not being Trumpish enough.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
This is pure PC nonsense. Would you apply the same logic to pedos and child porn?
Yes, broadly defined. Lolicon ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lolicon - includes NSFW images) vs raping children seems to mirror rape fantasies vs actually being raped.
(disclaimer: I am not an expert on this topics nor done research in either topic nor have a personal experience)
People think that if the U.S was invading Ukraine they could do it in a matter of months, spoiler: they can't.
Well, if USA would invade Ukraine then large part of population would be really happy and even larger part would immediately start to think how to profit from that.
Even if we assume that Ukrainian military fights as much as it can, then we get Gulf War rerun.
the number of americans willing to die is a scarcer resources than in authoritarian countries.
Still larger enough to maintain military.
Anti air such as S-300s have broken the economics and impact of aviation.
not sure
Secondly ATGMs have broken the economics of tanks.
Definitely not true.
This is it, we can no longer make disruptive military attacks
And that is why Kharkiv offensive has not happened.
bio-weapons
that is a dead end as far as military use goes, mentioning them seriously is really weird here
The only remaining "hopes" for military tactical disruption
Or proper use of existing tools. Assuming no nukes, USA would be able to simultaneously take Kyiv and Moscow and all major cities in both Ukraine and European part of Russia. Even if Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Finland and Baltic states would be hostile to USA.
If USA army would deploy in Ukraine (and gremlins would steal Russian nukes) then the war would be over within months - and that is only because Crimea would be really annoying to retake without heavy casualties.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
And for example in https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1616478656863571969 this twitter poster demonstrates being unable to distinguish between "losses and captures confirmed by reliable public info" and "actual losses and captures".
And fails to understand that Russia has more weaponry than Ukraine.
Or is deliberately lying and misleading pro-Russian troll. Or both. Take your pick.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Russia is not an empire with a real strength, should not be an empire and is not entitled to be an empire.
And even that war would result in less misery than Russia managing to recreate its empire and subjugate central and eastern Europe again.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Oryx is deemed very unreliable by the pro-Russian side
I wonder what this people think about Russian MoD claims :)
Has Big Sergei made fun also of all Russian MoD claims that were equally suspect as Oryx listings?
And is rejection of Oryx based "he refused to list 'destroyed' HIMARS" or anything more serious.
as people took a look at his claims and found he'd verify a loss based on a photo that was e.g. not even from the war,etc..
Is it just me or
You’re unable to view this Tweet because this account owner limits who can view their Tweets. Learn more
is displayed?
I seem to remember that ArmchairW was definitely not some epitome of high quality.
And overall I expect that in thousands of cases some sneaked through, Oryx is quite good but not some god. Definitely at least some checking is done, many many claims were rejected as invalid or pointed out to be duplicates.
I would care more about response to discovered problems and is it something systematic.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I’m not sure turning Russia into a wreck is a win-win
Depends on comparison
do we really want a de stabilized nuclear power
They already destabilized themself by invading Ukraine, preferably they would not be also victorious.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
He wanted Russia to be accepted into 'the West' (or I should say NATO).
Obviously. Given that purpose of NATO was to counter Russia[1] (for very good reason) and Russian aggression, especially in Europe, then getting fox into henhouse and wrecking it would be a great idea. For Putin and Russian imperialism.
Fortunately it has not happened.
[1] At least from perspective of Poland.
but as a peer
Have you read source that you provided? This is untrue claim and contradicted by your own source.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Worth noting is that in both cases unknown part exists only on paper. Many of this 12 500 tanks were stored in Siberian mud, under open air, without maintenance, for decades. For obvious reasons that is not good for tanks. Ukrainian military got better, but was extremely corrupt and Russian military corruption was not much better and has not really improved - so many of this tanks were sold for scrap or only rusting shell remains as someone has stolen everything steleable.
No idea how many of this tanks can be refurbished into something mowing under own power. Maybe half?
Disparity is a bit lowered by fact that for Russia option "we lost every single tank in this war" is worse than for Ukraine.
Note also that some tanks were delivered - for example Poland send 230+ tanks (so far the largest delivery), more may come while Russia has no real resupply options.
On the other hand, Russian factories are producing new ones - though hopefully war will not go for so long that it will change total numbers much.
And yes, overall that is really really bad for Ukraine. But not by multiple order of magnitudes, unless taking base 2 or other trickery.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
who have also accused Orbán of wanting a piece of Ukraine..
In case of Hungary it may be not utterly baseless due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zakarpattia_Oblast and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarians_in_Ukraine
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
It is a sufficient explanation, not the only explanation.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I feel like Poles need to recuse themselves from talking about Russia entirely.
I can do it in exchange of Russians recusing themselves from invading countries in Europe (I am single person but just recusing from specific way of murdering other people in specific part of the world is much smaller sacrifice, or at least it should be).
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
-
I do not believe that what you describe happened
-
If it actually happened then it is outlier of the millioner-with-private-rape island variety
-
If it happened then "WAT", especially at anyone staying there. I took emergency exists from less degenerated events.
-
I will close Motte tabs because that is not even entertaining unlike bad takes on Russia
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Phrasing this as "consequences of this precedent would be horribly bad and really unwanted" would be a better phrasing.
"there's no limiting factor" is clearly false, for start it hits one of theoretical extreme limits at conquering entire humanity. You cannot extort for example Jupiter or gravity with nukes.
No, it is false.
NATO giving Ukraine funds used in part to pay its soldiers does not make them mercenary.
In the same way as me putting money into household budget does not make my wife a prostitute.
Someone fighting because they are paid (mercenary) is highly distinct from soldier being paid some wage.
In similar same way as prostitutes in are highly distinct from wives, despite that sex and money is involved somehow in both cases.
Or rape victim getting monetary compensation for what happened does not make her or him a prostitute.
(yeah, some overlap may happen - not applicable in this case, there is exactly 0 NATO mercenaries in Ukraine as far as I know, and as far as I know there is 0 NATO mercenaries worldwide).
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
GIVEN PUTIN DIES in the next 5 months: 80% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
that seems quite high
unless you mean that 20% if for every single Russian soldier leaving Ukraine and avoiding even border accidents
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
the US military is actually now talking about how they're going to have to pull back out of the Ukraine
[citation needed]
Which US military would be even pulling out of Ukraine?
Maybe someone researched this already - can you recommend decent way to donate funds to Ukrainians?
More options
Context Copy link