starless_sea
No bio...
User ID: 1533
starless_sea
1yr ago
"Russia" is not a monolith. There are plenty of Russians, some quite powerful, with lots to gain from destroying the pipeline.
starless_sea
1yr ago
Given that, the only solution where the Arab residents of that land get to enjoy the benefits of being citizens of a liberal democracy, is that they are citizens of a liberal democracy jointly with the people who encircle them on all sides. And that means a one-state solution.
This seems totally unworkable to me. Why aren't you addressing the glaring counterargument: This would make Jews a minority with a high likelihood of mistreatment ("it can work pretty well" is hardly reassuring)?
I'm European.
Also, OPs argument seems more American to me. "My house, my rules" and similar mindsets are very American and signals that famous rugged individualism. We in the old country are more graceful hosts IMO.
Like you know how brides bans certain colors for the guest clothes, or makes all their bridesmaids wear the same dress? A very American thing IMO.
This highlights a general disagreement I see. Pro-Palestine arguments are often based on high principles of human rights, international law, democracy, etc. Pro-Israel arguments are often based on pragmatism, political reality and a flavor to might-makes-right. The second kind of argument just clicks better with me, I guess this might be some moral foundation kind of thing. I can see the morally pure argument for fighting the Dane until he gives up all he has unlawfully taken. But the Dane seem to be well settled and well defended, and if your side would have won the wars of yesteryear, then you would be the ruler of Denmark today and you would be equally unwilling to give back to the Danes all that you'd taken from them, so at some point it's just time to accept reality and move on. (It's easy to claim the moral high ground and lofty principles when you are in a position without power.)
Or maybe I'm just unconsciously seeking out the arguments I like from the side I unconsciously want to like and the arguments I dislike from the side I don't want to like.
starless_sea
1yr ago
So you're making some kind of platonic case: It would be better for the Arab majority to mistreat the Jewish minority that the current situation where the Jews mistreat the Arabs? Even if that's true in some platonic sense, it's still unworkable, the Jewish side will never agree to become the mistreated minority because of pure platonic reasoning.
starless_sea
1yr ago
I can't really do anything with that information. I do get that there's historical bad blood (duh). In a way, it would have been better if the Jews hadn't been so ideologically commit to settle the region of Palestine. (But wouldn't that alt-history most likely end with more Jews staying in Europe for the Holocaust? That doesn't seem optimal either.) But in the world we live in, there was and is a significant amount of Jews with high ideological commitment to live in Palestine. They semi-legally "invaded" the territory (as did many Arab immigrants during the relevant years). After much turmoil, the Jew came out on top. It still seems bad to me that Jews are not allowed to pray on the Temple Mount, and that the Palestinian leadership rejected the 2000 Camp David proposals and went for a second Intifada instead. Knowing that people migrated in 1870 doesn't change my opinion much.
Selecting their friend group is probably one of the more important things. No idea how to do that though.
Most children and teenagers have no idea how to dress and groom themselves. Lookism is everywhere. Ergo, make sure that they look good. If they want to be cyber-goth and you can't stop them, at least make sure that they dress as good-looking cyber-goth.
Also make sure that they exercise. As in, they have a fitness program and measure progress.
Both of these require you to act the example, but you already do that, right?
In their teenage years, you want them to have good references for their college applications and for job searches: Find a good friend who runs a company. Pay them under the table to hire you kid to a prestigious position for their age, and provide glowing references when asked.
This is pretty far down the line, but there's been discussions in rationalist circles about "speedrunning" collage, e.g. https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/yqtwit/speedrunning_high_school_and_college/
I think the benefits of this are pretty clear, even though most commentators seem to be against it for IMO bad reasons: If you finish college one year faster, it's one less year of being stuck in an institution and one year extra of prime-life freedom. Also, finishing college one year early looks very good on your CV.
Setting your children up for this should be pretty easy. Get an idea of if they want to go into higher education and if so: what school and field a few years in advance.
-
Find the course material and start working trough it (easier if you homeschool).
-
Give them permission to do this weird thing: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
-
Help them make a plan for their university years. What courses go which year? Should they aim to finish as fast as possible with the lowest possible passable grades, or should they strive for a certain GPA?
-
Hire them a private tutor (it's weird how few university students do this, the gains are enormous)
-
For the unethical part: help them cheat. Help them write their papers etc. Collage is only signaling anyway.
starless_sea
1yr ago
Yes, that would be totally fine with me. I mean, this is TheMotte, would anyone here want to ban something like that? I'm pro armband freedom for everyone everywhere.
Your comment reminds me of the classic https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/08/the-slate-star-codex-political-spectrum-quiz/
Cheating in college may still be worth it even if the material is worth learning. Writing a thesis is a pain, you don't learn much from the constant re-editing and messing with LaTeX. Having some help on that is useful. And there might be a single course your stuck on (happens to the best).
I didn't love university much, but I can see the point of doing it at normal pace if you enjoy it. I've still have a hard time seeing how 5 years of college trumps 4 years of 25% more college + 1 year doing whatever you want.
starless_sea
1yr ago
evidence that this conversation has been mostly me making uncharitable assumptions about you.
That's a... very American way of thinking.
Why are you pretending you think this is about clothing?
But ok, only 50% of this debate has been you making uncharitable assumptions about me. It feels like more when you are on the receiving end.
that you are resorting to sophistry on this topic because you know the position you back is contrived.
And it continuous. Seriously man, try to show some kindness.
Anyway, since this seems to be only meta-discussion and no actual discussion at all, I'm out.
starless_sea
1yr ago
I'm not pretending that this is about clothing. Clearly there's symbolism in the rainbow armband, I'm happy to acknowledge that.
I'm feeling like this debate isn't going anywhere, it mostly seems to be you making uncharitable assumptions about me. If you want to know anything concrete I'm happy to answer you, but I've stated my position and I don't see that you have argued against it.
starless_sea
1yr ago
But you have to explain why the Qatari should allow a symbol of support for behaviour they have criminalised.
Literally my first post:
If you invite the whole world to your country by voluntarily hosting the World Cup, you should expect the world to show up. If you do not want people in your country who do not conform to the rigid social taboos of your culture, you shouldn't host the World Cup.
I disagree. If you invite the whole world to your country by voluntarily hosting the World Cup, you should expect the world to show up. If you do not want people in your country who do not conform to the rigid social taboos of your culture, you shouldn't host the World Cup.
Wearing an armband is not shitting on anyone's culture or forcing anything on anyone. Being annoyed when your invited guests wear innocuous armbands that are perfectly fine in their culture is rude.
So the counterfactual is that Sweden was super happy to form a joint investigation. In which case, I could well imagine some Motte-poster writing how this indicates that the saboteur was a state actor within NATO, as the likely explanation is that Sweden is paying NATO ransom by basically handing over the investigation to NATO Denmark and NATO Germany. The Motte-poster would go on: If Russia was the suspected culprit, Sweden would like to do its own, thorough investigation to verify against the statements of Denmark and Germany to check the trustworthiness of their old friends and hopefully-new allies (and also to hone their skills at these kinds of investigations). Such an thorough investigation would be dangerous if it risked finding the "wrong" culprit, as the investigation results might leak: much safer to involve NATO Denmark and NATO Germany if the results might be "wrong". Heck, it might even be the US pressing Sweden to do their own investigation, since they don't trust the Germans.
Did anyone say "Sweden not joining the investigation would indicate NATO culpability" before the news broke? Or just supply some stronger reasoning to as why this indicates a NATO culprit, taking the counterfactual into account?
starless_sea
1yr ago
Yes, it would be rude for a guests in Qatar to walk around in drag and chant "Are there any men here ready to fuck!?". But that's pretty far from wearing an armband with a rainbow on.
starless_sea
1yr ago
I don't see the contradiction. The Qatari government is bad for expecting their guest to conform to their rigid social norms. FIFA is bad for allowing Qatar to host the World Cup. People should not go to the World Cup. Three true statement, no contradiction.
starless_sea
1yr ago
My point is that the historical context helps with understanding, but that it doesn't really help me much on what action to take or what policy to pursue.
Howdie partnar! Did you know now that them Qataris don't have no laws against wearin' that rainbow flag? They should just let them fans wear them rainbows and not start no trouble about it! Now I recon this is what mister Nasser Al-Khater, World Cup chief executive, promised them fans back in ol' 2020, so he should be the big man and stick to his words I say. Especially since there's no law against it and so.
Now I don't know now if this all is needed, but I recon' if them Qataris needs to save their faces, they can just say how their Allah made that rainbow as his covenant, amen, and that them tourists are all mighty pleased to celebrate the lords work.
starless_sea
1yr ago
There are several Muslim players in the NBA. don't understand you point. (Also, the NBA is a national affair.)
starless_sea
1yr ago
The settlement issue is a counterexample, this actually reflects badly on Israel when I dig down. I guess the settlements is a way to apply pressure to show that the Arab negotiation position is only going to get worse (beyond the obvious religious dimension that seems to be the main driver). But the ethical thing is to not press the winning hand, and relations would likely have been better today if the settlements on the West Bank had been limited.
starless_sea
1yr ago
The obvious answer is yes? When Germany hosted the World Cup in 2006, it would have been perfectly fine for a Qatari to show up with armbands that say "God made marriage between man and women" or something like that.
starless_sea
1yr ago
That might have been Putins plan at the outset, but then (Wikipedia):
Scholz suspended certification of Nord Stream 2 on 22 February 2022 in consequence of Russia's recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and the deployment of troops in territory held by the DPR and LPR.[40]
Now, the Germans might theoretically have realized that it was pretty weird that they were still buying gas but not approving this specific pipeline, but in practice, it seems very unlikely that that Nord Stream 2 would ever deliver gas while the war was ongoing. E.g. this Metaculus question goes down to 5% after Sholz announcement: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/nord-stream-2-be-completed-before-2025/
starless_sea
1yr ago
https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1623606025071783936?s=20&t=PXShQfsqToxfHV3qYYjzkg
Hersh himself acknowledges how the pipeline would be politically unviable during Russia’s full scale war. That means the continued existence of the pipeline is far more valuable only to someone who could replace Putin and change the course he wants Russia totally committed to. Putin’s top priority is remaining in power at all cost. He would sacrifice an incentive to replace him & end war.
starless_sea
1yr ago
I was gesturing at the exit idea. Updated post to clarify.
Simple solution: If you are so quick to offense that you cannot tolerate armbands with rainbows, you shouldn't host the World Cup.
More options
Context Copy link