ulyssessword
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User ID: 308
ulyssessword
23d ago
when was the last time you've seen a child with Down's?
Yesterday, if you'll allow (presumptive) early-teenagers. It happens every couple months or so, it's not common but not exceptional either.
Claude says 1/630 live births have Down's and about 50% abortion rate (with bad tracking/stats), which suggests 1/315 conception rate. Compare it to 1/790 live birth rate in the 1970s (same source), and increased screening+abortion isn't even keeping pace with the increased incidence due to aging parents.
ulyssessword
23d ago
I'm pretty much with you. Native apps are more powerful than web pages, but developers don't reliably use that power to improve the experience.
Sometimes they simply don't develop the (easy) features that web developers would struggle to make, and other times they make user-hostile features that web developers can't.
ulyssessword
24d ago
it suffers from another kind of representation problem, the opposite of what Fivehour was talking about. In an apparent effort to avoid offending any constituency, the critics who made the selections cast as wide a net as possible.
There's a place for surveys of the field like that. Unfortunately, "The 30 greatest living American songwriters" is punchier than "A selection of 30 great living American songwriters, which is representative of the field as a whole", so misrepresenting it is easy.
Any fair individual ranking system would (most likely) be heavily concentrated in whatever subcategory matched the rating criteria. The same goes for greatest athletes, greatest politicians, or anything else.
ulyssessword
26d ago
Is that how "right of first refusal" usually works? I was under the impression that they would run the auction as normal, then take the $410k (or whatever) bid to the family/charity and give them the chance to overrule the otherwise-winning bidder.
The participants in the auction might not like that their highest bid got rejected, but that's just business.
ulyssessword
26d ago
Wait, how is that any different? Just because it adds up all the time in any office instead of just the one position?
ulyssessword
28d ago
I've been halfway-considering making an LLM workflow for it. They aren't that complicated, and teaching them my taste shouldn't be that hard either. If I wanted to go super-fancy, it could intercept my traffic (when permitted, of course...) and rewrite the sites on the fly to avoid ads, dark patterns, distractions, etc.
ulyssessword
29d ago
Hilarious. I was thinking that by the time I posted this, he might already have dropped out.
Lol, he posted two minutes before you, but spent 7 minutes on preliminaries before clearly dropping out (I skimmed it, so there might be another one before the 7:00 and 8:40 statements).
I don't think they could stop him from running as an independent, but they can pull all their support and tank his campaign that way. I don't know how fundraising works (is it money for Platner, who will spend it on his campaign, or for the Democrats, who sourced it through him and will spend it on the Senate race, or what), which affects how much he could even spend. If it was party funds sourced from his campaign and earmarked for its use, then he might be simply out of luck. If it was personally-allocated funds, then he still needs to have staff willing to accept his money to do work etc.
It would be very difficult to run a campaign of that scale without a political machine backing you. If the Democrat membership as a whole (not just the leaders) reject him, then he won't get any volunteers, staffers, analysts, etc.
As of now, this is a moot point: Platner has suspended his campaign and plans to withdraw.
EDIT: canonical link, (@8:40 for suspending his campaign and intending to withdraw)
Canada, not the US, but close enough. One very strong confounder is that we aren't seeing a representative sample of society. Even if there was the same rate in different areas (and we both saw the same number of people out and about), they might stay at home or be institutionalized in one country and "in the community" in another.
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