ulyssessword
No bio...
User ID: 308
Thanks for being lenient.
I checked a couple more of his hard science articles, and they have a similar level of rigor. Solar Flares confuses cause and effect with mere association, and has a couple other oddities:
According to NASA, solar flares are defined as intense bursts of radiation that occur as a result of the magnetic energy found in sunspots. Solar flares can also happen when particles like electrons and protons unexpectedly accelerate.
The electrons and protons accelerate because of the magnetic field. That causes a release of radiation, which is the solar flare.
No matter what the composition, solar flares release large amounts of solar, gamma, and electromagnetic radiation into space. They can last anywhere from several minutes to several hours.
Very strange phrasing. Rephrasing it, it is: electromagnetic or particle radiation from the sun, electromagnetic radiation below 10 picometers, and electromagnetic radiation in general.
They can last anywhere from several minutes to several hours.
What do solar flares look like?
Despite the fact that some of them can last for a rather long time, solar flares generally happen too quickly to be seen by the naked eye.
It's not the speed that's the problem ("several minutes to several hours", from the previous paragraph, or minimum four minutes due to the measurement criteria here), but the brightness in the visible spectrum. This might actually be a hallucination, and could've come from the mismatch between human and astronomical time (where a million years can be "fast" and ten minutes can be described as "a flash").
Those circumstances emit X-rays and magnetic fields that travel across the cosmos, bombarding the Earth with geomagnetic storms that can interrupt long-range communication and the like.
The field itself isn't reaching the Earth (any more than normal, at least), but charged particles are, and they can affect us.
Solar flares do ramp up into something called a solar maximum every 11-year solar cycle, but even at their maximum strength, no recorded flares have ever been large enough to reach the planet.
A bit of a nitpick, but the solar flares are the light. All(?) recorded solar flares have reached the Earth, because that's how we recorded them. Solar prominences and flare sprays have never been large enough to reach Earth.
According to NASA, CMEs are similar to solar flares in that they are bursts of solar material that result in the release of particles and radiation.
CMEs and solar flares are somewhat like thunder and lightning. They happen at the same time from the same event, but they are distinct phenomena.
This was a good challenge, and kudos for putting your money where your mouth is. I saw the generation attempt upthread, but I'm still wondering if o3, Opus 4, or another model could outperform him, if given a good bit of scaffolding. The bar is higher than I thought.
I'll direct the prize money to https://deltawaterfowl.org/join-us/donate/ instead. Thanks.
Re: Edit:
"Exothermic reactions" can also apply to physical processes like phase changes, but now I'm the one that's nitpicking and asking for a nonstandard definition. I don't think his statements about nucleation sites are clear enough to be "wrong", so I'll withdraw my claim.
I have a few friends that use https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:3146835 with good results.
Bystanders desperately tried to assist the injured man as emergency services raced to the scene.
Mr Baitson was rushed to hospital for emergency surgery.
However, he died four days later.
Stranger things have happened, but dying four days after a leg wound is certainly up there IMO. I'd think you would either die in a few minutes or get enough help to recover, but maybe there's a middle ground.
...as anything other than nonsense generators.
As opposed to the other sources you can go to, which are...?
I am grading on a curve, an LLMs look pretty good when you compare them to traditional sources. It's even better if you restrict yourself to free+fast sources like Google search, (pseudo-)social media like Reddit/StackOverflow, or specific websites.
Let's try a concrete example. Excerpted from here:
The o1 model identified the exact or very close diagnosis (Bond scores of 4-5) in 65.8% of cases during the initial ER Triage, 69.6% during the ER physician encounter, and 79.7% at the ICU
65.8% accuracy isn't that great, but buddy, have you seen humans?
—surpassing the two physicians (54.4%, 60.8%, 75.9% for Physician 1; 48.1%, 50.6%, 68.4% for Physician 2) at each stage.
The state of the art for generating accurate medical diagnoses doesn't involve gathering the brightest highschoolers, giving them another decade(-ish) of formal education, then more clinical experience before asking for their opinions. It involves training an LLM.
What is the definition of an "enemy of the United States" though?
Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization. If that isn't sufficient to meet the definition, then I'm not sure what is.
has to be subsidized by the state government because it’s just not profitable anymore.
AKA: charging what it costs would be unacceptable. I'm sure there's some price where it makes sense to offer flood insurance in a floodplain, but the government decided that people should pay less than that.
At least it isn't a price control forcing the insurance companies take an (expected) loss on every policy.
You did not say "no"
Why would anyone answer a thought experiment with a direct factual analysis? I wouldn't use the trick calculator because I would use a normal one, or possibly specialized software that has error-checking that goes beyond faithfully calculating my button presses. Wow, I'm so insightful.
I notice that you haven't answered the question either: Have you seen humans? I personally see dozens of humans on an average day, but I wouldn't want to assume anything about your answer.
I know its long but seriously watch the video essay on Badness = 0 I posted up thread. It is highly relevant to this conversation.
Where's the relevance? Was it "Using an LLM to answer your questions will cut your workload by 99% but not 99.99% because you have to follow one link to confirm its response"?
0-6:00 Detail orientation!
6:00 - 9:00 Instead of watching >100 videos each about 10-30 minutes long and assessing them himself (or using any other research strategy), the author used a (now) old model with 5% the parameters of GPT4, and it confused a video about error correction algorithms with a video about admitting to and correcting your errors. He got his answer within minutes.
9:00-12:00 Intro to LLMs and his toy example.
12:00-19:00 BoVeX, which is a typesetting software he made that rewrites text to eliminate "bad" breaks in text (e.g. hyphens, overspacing).
19:00-22:00 Conclusion/credits.
When you find something via Google, do you immediately and unconditionally trust it? I don't, because Google's results are full of nonsense. In response, I've developed google-fu to both refine my queries and judge the results. The same goes for every other source there is, from physical libraries to subject-specific Discord servers.
Do I compare LLM output to Google results? Sure, but that's nothing special. Comparing what you find in different sources is a pretty basic tactic.
LLMs are part of a complete breakfast research strategy, and a pretty good one at that.
I've also seen arguments that a particular distribution of values for IQ, Openness, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, etc (including many factors that psychologists don't measure) is the best for a nation, and the only way to get spread is to select based on race.
Even though the "good" numbers might be higher on other people, naive number-maxxing would lead to a failure mode of some kind. It's often unspecified, but the ones I can remember involve out-of-touch highly [good trait] people making norms that are legible and achievable to them, but disastrous to everyone else. Liberalization of sex and drugs are the main culprits.
If I ask an LLM about anything, I need to do the research that I would have done even if I had not asked the LLM.
I'm almost with you there. I need to do some of the research I would've had to do without the LLM, but it adds enough to displace a Google search or two while being faster and easier.
By extension wether a man is black or white must matter more than whether they are an aged Supreme Court Judge or a Twenty-something meth head.
Maybe. I saw some stats on the Trump 2016 election, and the survey showed that being Black was a better predictor of presidential vote than being
But the hallmark of authoritarianism is to expand the definition of "undesirable" to include your political opponents -
What's it a hallmark of when the definition of "undesirable" excludes literal criminals, classified based on their criminality (not as an incidental feature like MLK)?
I agree with your concern over the lack of process (are those people actually illegal immigrants? Are we sure?), but the intended targets are appropriate targets for persecution.
Can you be more specific?
How would social status vary more among fraternal twins than identical twins? Are there family dynamics that push fraternal twins apart (on whatever stats you use) while pulling identical twins together? Do fraternal and identical twins live in different climates?
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time,
Dang, my optimism was misplaced here. I'm not even sure what I'm supposed to be engaging with, as "the alt-right is bad" isn't a very interesting thesis.
Yes, routinely separating people from their family and other support structures is slightly insane.
I think it's pretty clear they reduce overdoses...
They may reduce overdoses, but I think that's far from clear.
As a (sort of) counterexample, "...B.C. has implemented every harm-reduction program that has been proposed, from safe-injection sites to safe supply and effectively making all drugs legal. As each new measure has been introduced, drug overdose deaths have increased, except for a brief drop in 2019."
The toy model is that they would otherwise stop (often from from death), but instead they continue for longer before stopping (slightly less often from death), and the time they spend doing drugs is higher and therefore the social cost is higher as well.
I always treated the 1-10 pain scale as logarithmic, like earthquakes or sound. 7% of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake ("Near total destruction – severe damage or collapse to all buildings.") is 7.8 ("Causes damage to most buildings, some to partially or completely collapse or receive severe damage."), not 0.63 (the scale only goes to 1.0, which are not felt).
Or going the other way, stubbing a toe might be a 3. Stubbing three toes is definitely not a 9. It might not even reach a 4.
Union leadership also limits membership to secure jobs for their members.
If the local union has 500 members and each can do 0.2 houses per year (e.g. a crew of 10 can do two houses per year), then I guess your city is building a max of 100 houses. What if you want more than 100 houses built? Too bad, union labor is mandated, and they're not interested in de-monopilizing the sector.
Those 500 workers will sure be happy that they're in so much demand. The union did its job.
Have twin studies been ignoring that factor?
I don't know about that. I removed Reddit from my bookmarks toolbar, and my use dropped off a cliff. Sometimes a 10-second barrier is enough to stop an impulsive decision.
I think free range is good for kids simply because it allows for kids to grow into adulthood.
A quote that stuck with me: "You aren't raising a child, you're raising an adult who happens to be a child right now."
Some people have learned very well how to be children, and have 20+ years of experience in that role. Others have already gained experience with adulthood before they get legal recognition at 18, and are already (somewhat) prepared for the challenges they will be facing.
- Prev
- Next
First article I checked (first published March 2021, updated Jan 2023): Sodium acetate crystallization is not a chemical reaction, phase changes are physical. The linked source does not make that claim.
More options
Context Copy link