zeke5123
3mo ago
Enter VBM and activists getting illegals to sign things they don’t understand because the activist is…otherwise helpful
zeke5123
4mo ago
I was in this stuff day in and day out. It isn’t PR. Maybe you’ve been buying into the Trump nonsense (like Cuomo being better).
zeke5123
4mo ago
Agreed with the broader point re gold standard. I’m making the more narrow point about whether depreciating dollar is good or bad.
As for volatility and pricing, sure academically. But I’m not sure people actual use models like that to invest — especially when it comes to highly uncertain returns. That is, venture capital is so uncertain trying to figure out expected return is a bit of a fools errand.
zeke5123
4mo ago
The weird thing is credit scores are not really how banks make major decisions on lending (that has more to do with cash flow)
zeke5123
4mo ago
And you have people here suggesting maybe that is unfair. Think about that for a second.
zeke5123
5mo ago
I don’t have a link to the ADP. I remember seeing the beats when they come out.
Re 2 and 3, show that historically we often see these kinds of beats in something as important to markets as unemployment numbers. Until then I think multiple multiple sigma beats to the upside (followed by uniform revision downward adjustments of prior month) is suggestive of something.
Re 4 had trouble finding the paper but here is a Forbes link discussing it. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/12/23/upon-further-review-that-hot-labor-market-is-really-ice-cold/?sh=23befc8c72b5
zeke5123
5mo ago
-
ADP is a payroll company. They put out numbers. The numbers generally are close to BLS because well ADP is the primary payroll provider in the US. About a year ago, there started to be a pretty big divergence.
-
Some of the beats were something like six sigma. It is weird to have that many very large sigma events on one data source.
-
Yes of course things aren’t independent. My suggestion is it isn’t independent because the BLS is cooking the books.
-
There are two data points BLS puts out. The first is establishment survey which goes into unemployment number. The second is the household survey. Granted, the latter is measuring something slightly different. But historically these two surveys end up with total number of employed that are very similar. There has been a large difference for about 1.5 years since BLS started aggressively applying adjustment to establishment. The household correlates very well with street expectations. The Philly fed even put out a paper on this. Again, this suggests the establishment is being manipulated. Latest household suggests we are in recession range for jobs.
zeke5123
5mo ago
I actually think PE provides value. It provides an exit for entrepreneurs especially when they can’t go public. Let’s say you build a 100m business but are getting close to retirement and your kids aren’t all that interested in building it or you have business you want to start? PE provides an exit to those kind of business starters likely increasing business formation.
zeke5123
6mo ago
No. You questioned whether any babies were killed. And then I called you Alex Jones.
zeke5123
8mo ago
And of course you can’t have any discussion about appeasement without someone invoking WWII. As if that was the sole appeasement in the history of military affairs.
Appeasement works when you can buy time to improve defenses. When Russia invaded Ukraine, we should’ve strengthened our NATO allies (a core goal for the US); not a corrupt state that was outside our sphere of influence.
zeke5123
8mo ago
It just seems so obvious yet some people are arguing against it. I honestly cannot model their thought process (outside of them treating the thought exercise solely as an exercise instead of thinking — how would people actually vote if voting the wrong way could lead to their death).
zeke5123
8mo ago
Knowing nothing else doesn’t add anything to your argument. Your argument seems to be that there are enough blue pill takers that your vote makes a difference. I doubt it.
zeke5123
8mo ago
And my guess is that something like 97%-99% of an adult population actually faced with this absurd decision would pick red and therefore it is EV negative to pick blue.
zeke5123
8mo ago
But if you can communicate, wouldn’t you communicate “pick red; if we al pick red we all live!”
zeke5123
9mo ago
It is funny. Trump claimed he has been elected to the office of president in 2016 and 2020. So isn’t he breaking the 22nd amendment by running if he truly believed he was elected in 2020?
Now of course he would say elected means by the electoral college (and he is probably right). But just a funny aside.
zeke5123
10mo ago
What in your estimation is the percent of black Americans have white people?
Maybe it is because men understand voting isn’t really individually useful?
More options
Context Copy link