zeke5123a
30d ago
We had tons of snow. I’d also be interested in comparing your memory with records. My bet is you remember more snow than what actually fell.
zeke5123a
30d ago
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Smoking might actually be good on the margins. Sure, the more you smoke the more likely you’ll die sooner. But smoking also comes with good effects (eg social). There is a case where it is okay used marginally.
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What signs are there that climate change is negative? The greening of the planet?
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I agree re precaution principle but you can take that too far. For example, we could get rid of all oil uses tomorrow. Society would collapse but perhaps that would be better for maintaining the environment (or perhaps not — people might burn wood).
zeke5123a
1mo ago
I could label you a hate group. But if no one knows you, who cares. The argument is that the SPLC paid people to make sure the “hate” was visible. The openness is key for fundraising.
How much of their fundraising materials addressed hate groups they funded? At what percentage would you say “there’s a problem?”
zeke5123a
1mo ago
No. All it requires them to prove is that they paid these bad guys to make sure they were visible so that they could make money “fighting” them.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
The argument the other poster is making is that SPLC:
- Takes donor money
- Invests some of it in people who say racist things
- SPLC fundraisers on stopping item 2.
Rinse and repeat. They basically are creating the demand for their funding
Now whether that’s fraud is a different story I’d want to think through.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
Yeah it’s literally impossible. First, climate science itself is based on thousands of different interactions that are hard to model out with degree of accuracy.
Then teasing out that highly uncertain future impact on the economy is nigh impossible.
A limited precaution principle is reasonable but a destroy the economy one isn’t
zeke5123a
1mo ago
lol? Really?
Maybe the IRGC are all true believers or maybe some of them are motivated by pecuniary concerns. You seem very certain of one. I’m less certain.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
Iran is hurt more by the strait being blockade than the U.S. is by it being closed. The question is can Trump home out politically.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
Because the president was talking about blowing up their energy stations and bridges. It was context.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
I don’t think ending the Iranian civilization (which I take him to mean destroy their energy infrastructure) is more evil than Iranian’s attempt to restrict the global energy infrastructure.
I also think destroying energy infrastructure is relatively commonplace in war and isn’t something particularly heinous. Yes, it would’ve caused significant harm to the Iranian people but that’s war. It is a legit military target which separates it from killing camps.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
Well Brussels can entice migrants and Brussels wants to end opposition to rule. Presumably forcing a bunch of migrants into the country might help.
That’s just silly. Untangling which factor is causing what is incredibly challenging since you can’t really run a natural experiment. But the stats are so extreme that dismissing race because it makes OO uncomfortable is irrational.
That is, both posters make a claim on what causes crime. I respond with stats that show facially a pretty strong issue for OP’s claim. OP cannot simply cite factor analysis without simply privileging his hypothesis.
This is also an area where publishing anything that supports my hypothesis is career suicide (eg see what happened when academics published results showing police killing was not racial predicted). Therefore, you would expect no one in the academy to attempt to prove my hypothesis—it is verboten to even consider it.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
The concern with voting against the Orban types is that once you give in, they can easily drop off a few million into your country that practically is impossible to reverse. The devil you know and all.
Hope that doesn’t happen to Hungary.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
There also appears to be a timeline where tech people start us g the newest tool, herald it as great, but then the more they use it the more limits it has.
Or perhaps stated differently, there are clear benefits to the tech but it isn’t near term AGI right now.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
Except it seems like the military analyst concluded there was a real chance the people would not rise up.
Either way, seems like the military itself has performed fine. Now crediting Hegseth for that is probably unfair but blaming him for a political decision also seems unfair.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
One need not be a racist to find obsession with policing alleged racism silly
zeke5123a
1mo ago
To add, hospitality is orthogonal to racism.
Let’s say you as a policy never welcome new neighbors. I think that is bad. The woke person would think it’s bad if you only didn’t welcome the black family (or perhaps didn’t welcome the black family regardless of your normal behavior).
My view is that hospitality is virtue and therefore is agnostic as to race. Racism ethics are value neutral and are concerned about fairness (or favoritism). It has nothing to say about hospitality but only about your level of hospitality between races.
zeke5123a
1mo ago
So basically the standard for most industries? Outsiders think “surely LLMs can solve this” but insiders point out where it can’t?
zeke5123a
1mo ago
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11868975/
Black women murder at a rate higher than Asian men. Black women murder rate similar to white male rate.
What’s interesting is if Save-the-World took their donors to make the world needing more saving in order to drive further donations.
That seems different than overhead and dinners etc.
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