Somewhere between 5% and 95%.
And to be clear, that's for both of the two statements?
Yes, it has the potential to get worse, which is why some of the wokists' policy proposals are so reckless.
Ok, fine. And you have already conceded that your proposed super high standard of proof for HBD in connection with policymaking is based on the POTENTIAL for a return to Jim Crow. Agreed?
Depends on whether you mean 'misbehaviour by some white people, who may or may not even still be alive' or 'misbehaviour by the most recent white people to interact with the black people in question'.
Well, please give me your answer for both possibilities.
Skokie, Ill., 1977: Municipal authorities prohibit neo-nazis from marching; the closest thing they get to anyone siding with them is the ACLU filing court cases arguing that their opinions, while terrible, cannot technically be made illegal per the 1st Amendment.
Charlottesville, Va., 2017: Far-right mob marches while espousing white-nationalist conspiracy theorieshypotheses; half the frelling country makes excuses for them.
Palm Beach, Fla., 2022: Former U. S. President, and leading candidate for his party in the next election, has dinner with known white supremacist; still gets elected two years later.
Ok, so in your view, 40 years ago if a presidential candidate met with a white supremacist (as that phrase is currently understood) and claimed that he hadn't known it at the time, even so it would have ruined his chances of being elected. Right?
Also, in your view, demonstrations along the lines of the Charlottesville 2017 demonstration are far more socially acceptable now than they were between 1964 and, let's say, 1994. Right?
Do I understand you correctly?
omw_68
1d ago
Good morning, my fellow patriarchs, my AIPAC fellows, my Thielite dudebros and gainsmaxxing vrilchads. We gather here in memory of the dearly departed: of the progressives no longer in our midst. Of those who unironically use low human capital as an insult. They who have flounced (and who may yet remain amogus with their alts) with long, boring wordcel essays on how we're all racists,
Can you link to a couple of these "goodbye" posts so I know what you are talking about?
omw_68
1d ago
I feel like I'm living in some parallel universe to posters here, but things coming out of the IDF recently look worse than Azeri conduct in Armenia a few years ago. I had to actively block all war accounts on Twitter after the recent "8 month baby torture video" which I don't think I've ever seen any military do, ever. Don't get me started on videos of beating up old people in literal, currently ongoing pogroms in the West Bank. Machine gunning down hundreds of civilians intentionally in Gaza etc. This happened along a steady stream of Israeli officials literally calling for the murder of their enemies children, btw. Calling this "talking pretty harshly" seems genuinely bewildering to me.
I'm extremely skeptical of your claim. For starters, can you (1) post the videos of the IDF "machine gunning down hundreds of civillians intentionally in Gaza; and (2) specify exactly what you mean by "ongoing pogroms in the West Bank"
omw_68
2d ago
I feel like it has worked pretty well, if you compare the West Bank and Gaza there's obviously a huge difference.
I would say the main difference between Gaza and J & S is that one is occupied by Israel and was not.
Anyway, are you saying that there haven't been efforts by Western NGOs towards economic development in Gaza?
omw_68
2d ago
Sure, but I do think you might get fewer able-bodied young men volunteering to martyr themselves for the cause when the cause being sold to them by the terrorist recruiters is "I know things are fine around here, but there's all these disgusting enemies of the Prophet who hurt our ancestors over there, let's go attack them" as opposed to "you know how everything around here is shit? it's because of those hated infidels who are currently oppressing and bombing us, so let's kick them out of our rightful fatherland"
I am pretty skeptical about that. ISIS was able to do quite a lot of recruiting in Western countries. Perhaps more in poor countries, but was that due to the wealth disparity or just ease of access?
It's not widely reported but Israel (and Western NGOs) have put a lot of effort into economic development among Palestinian Arabs, in part with the idea that this will lessen animosity along the lines you proposed. Has it worked? I'm skeptical, but of course there's really no way to know that there hasn't been SOME positive effect. Certainly it hasn't solved the problem.
I think it's pretty disputable whether there was anything unique about American ethnicity, culture, language, or religion either. But I'd also say nationhood is a "fake it 'till you make it" endeavour generally. Even many European nations were kinda fake at the time of their inception.
Of course I agree with this. Nationhood is like paper money -- if enough people believe it in, then it means something.
The trouble with Palestinian Arabs is
(1) they come from a culture which is extremely prone to factionalism, tribalism, violence, splitting, etc. You can see this openly in Lebanon and Syria; and
(2) their entire identity is based around opposing the Jews.
The closest analogy I can think of is that for social justice purposes, on American college campuses, there are groups called "Latino," "Asian," "Black," etc. So that Japanese are grouped with Chinese; Puerto Ricans are grouped with Mexicans; and so on. And there can even be student clubs where these people more or less get along and feel a shared sense of identity. But in the absence of the common cause against white people / colonialism /patriarchy/etc., these identities would largely fizzle out.
The way people think about their identities can change, of course, but for now and the foreseeable future any Palestinian State -- regardless of how its borders were drawn -- would almost certainly either (1) aggressively make war against the Jews; (2) descend into bloody civil war; or (3) some combination thereof.
omw_68
2d ago
How long do you imagine Israel would last under such conditions? My guess is about a month.
I'm pretty confident that the answer is "indefinitely." I think that Israel-haters don't really understand or appreciate what Israel could accomplish if its gloves came off.
omw_68
2d ago
since Israelis seek more than military victory (neutered, maimed population, intentionally degraded conditions that make emigration more likely, both by push and pull)
I am rather skeptical of this claim, and would request evidence, except you also say:
All debatable, of course, and I don't care to
So be it.
omw_68
3d ago
I think third-worldism is the animating factor among those people
If by "third-worldism" you mean what I think you mean, I would say that this is is also a kind of anti-Semitism. In the same way some Leftist college professor hates white people, he also hates Jewish people and for pretty much the same reasons. It's more socially acceptable to openly express disdain for white people (anti-Semitism is typically disguised as anti-Zionism), but it's basically the same playbook: In any conflict between advanced people and primitive people, the Leftist sides with the primitive people, thereby (implicitly) claiming that he is morally superior to the advanced people.
omw_68
3d ago
Forty years down the line in the counterfactual where a two-state solution was implemented in the 90s, would young Palestinians grow up with such extreme hatred of Israel if they perceived it as simply a neighboring country, and not the oppressor controlling the land they themselves currently live on? I don't know that it would reduce Palestinians' anti-zionist sentiment by a wide enough margin but equally, it would be surprising if it didn't reduce it at all.
The primary motivator is anti-Semitism. When Jordan controlled J & S and Egypt controlled Gaza, the Palestinian Arabs living there focused their hatred on '47 Israel. In fact, the PLO made clear that it was NOT claiming those areas.
omw_68
3d ago
I’m sorry, the fuck?
Roughly between 1962 and 2002, people from places like Hong Kong were subject to British Rule but could not live and work in Great Britain - not without special permission.
it does not correspond to the situation between Israel and Gaza, which again you know perfectly well
That's a different question. The question is which countries are apartheid countries.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I would like to see some proof, please.
Well do you agree that from roughly 1962 to 2002, British Dependent Territory Citizens (e.g. people from Hong Kong) were not free to just live and work in Great Britain, that they needed special permission?
omw_68
3d ago
the fantasy state of Palestine, don't understand you here. Like they keep the Jews out?
Yes.
the UK before 2002, very curious about this one
Roughly between 1962 and 2002, people born in places like Hong Kong were not allowed to live and work in Great Britain.
Even Norway, very curious about this one
People in Svalbard don't get Norwegian citizenship, even if born there.
China, Uighurs? Agreed
Also Tibetans.
omw_68
3d ago
Activists aren't using the word 'genocide' because it is a meaningful description of what is going on in Gaza. They're using it because it's the worst word they know.
Agreed. You could say that there is motte genocide and bailey genocide, motte feminism and bailey feminism; motte trafficking and bailey trafficking; etc.
Basically every word used by social justice types has a motte meaning and a bailey meaning.
omw_68
3d ago
The general argument I see is that because US policy/tax dollars support these allies, it's more important to call it out over regimes which, while they may be worse, the US has fewer levers of influence to pull.
If this were true, one would expect that Leftists in Europe or Latin America wouldn't have the same tunnel vision. Which they do.
Not to mention the fact that the US gives billions of dollars in aid every year to Egypt. Where are the demonstrations for Egyptian Christians? For that matter, the US has actual troops stationed in the Persian Gulf countries and has (at a minimum) an informal alliance with Saudi Arabia. These countries do all kinds of things that -- in theory -- should get Leftists riled up.
omw_68
3d ago
Yes! I was asking genuinely. I did not know this. For most Russian Jews I know, they have Russian ancestors too.
The evidence I am aware of is follows:
-
Oral and written tradition says that Jews originated from the land of Israel. In fact, the word "Jewish" comes from "Judea."
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Modern DNA evidence which connects Eastern European Jews to other groups of Jews such as Mizrachi and Sephardi. If all Jewish groups are connected, it's reasonable to conclude that there is a common place of origin.
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Modern DNA evidence (apparently) says that Eastern European Jews have some degree of Levantine genes. Again, the reasonable conclusion is that Israel is the source.
To be sure, it's pretty obvious that the various groups of Jews have admixture from other areas. Just looking, you can tell that European Jews look more European than Sephardi or Mizrachi or Ethiopian Jews.
omw_68
3d ago
I can't tell if you're obliquity refering to me as an "isolationist" and then also, amusingly, doing the same thing anti-Semites do where they don't say "it's the Jews" they just do things like (((this))) but instead you're implying I'm an anti-semite.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Can you show me where I referred to you as an isolationist?
I have an incredibly hard time believing that after expending such a ridiculous amount of blood and treasure to get nukes, they'd immediately turn around and attempt to land one on Tel-Aviv in exchange for having the Persian homeland turned into an irradiated wasteland.
Well here are a couple hypothetical scenarios for you.
-
You are the Prime Minister of Israel and a nuclear bomb explodes in Ariel. You are 80% sure it was the Iranians behind it. Would you turn the Persian homeland into an irradiated wasteland?
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You are the Prime Minister of Israel and a nuclear bomb explodes in Arial. You are 100% sure it was Iran, but Iran is claiming that the attack was made by a rogue commander. Would you turn the Persian homeland into an irradiated wasteland?
Yes, and much like Trump used to, I think that it's too much.
Ok fine, but we are talking about isolationists. If someone makes the isolationist argument against expenditures to support Israel in a selective way, it's telling.
Then fuck Saudi Arabia as well
Fine, but I'm pretty confident that a lot of these supposed isolationist types would react in muted terms to such a revelation.
omw_68
3d ago
So you're saying that the Eastern Euro Jews originated from Israel? Is there evidence for this?
Yes. Are you seriously skeptical that such evidence exists?
omw_68
3d ago
The Native Americans did not equal ~40% the US citizenry when their citizenship was granted. If they had, you can be assured reasons would have been found not to do it. They were demographically irrelevant and presented no threat to the security or character of the United States.
It's worth pointing out that one of the last US territories to be granted statehood was Arizona. And the reason is pretty obvious -- the US wanted to wait until there was a non-Indian majority.
FWIW I think that Israel should do the same thing with J & S / WB -- the Jewish population there is exploding, and once there is a solid majority, it can be annexed.
omw_68
3d ago
Palestinians have 2x the proportion of ancient Levantine DNA as Ashkenazi (European) Jews,
The Levant includes all or part of Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. This area was all part of the Ottoman Empire in the late 1800s. So even if Palestinian Arabs have 100% Levantine DNA, it doesn't contradict my point: Most of the Palestinian Arabs moved to what's now Israel from other parts of the Ottoman Empire around the time of the early days of Zionism. That's why it's very common for them to have names like "Al-Masri" which means "Egypt."
who make up most of the Israeli population
I think this is inaccurate, I am pretty sure that Ashkenazim are a minority. I certainly agree that Ashkenazim lived in Europe for many generations before returning to Israel.
But the point is that the Palestinian Arabs are not some ancient people who has lived in the area of Israel since time immemorial. Rather, they are one of many many groups. The area has been conquered, invaded, settled, annexed, and lost probably dozens of times over the last few thousand years.
omw_68
3d ago
Now spring your trap! What other countries can be grouped by this?
Lebanon, China, the fantasy state of Palestine, the UK before 2002, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, even Norway. Probably a lot more.
Theyre partially awful neighbors BECAUSE of the apartheid.
I would have to disagree with that. For 19 years before 1967, Israel had no control at all over Gaza or J & S. And yet the Palestinian Arabs were still "awful neighbors." Interestingly, those areas were occupied by Egypt and Jordan. And yet the aggression was directed against the Jews.
omw_68
3d ago
So much for what theory?
Your theory that if Iran had sufficiently advanced weaponry, it would eschew it's preference for soft targets, to the extent such a preference exists.
omw_68
3d ago
*The load bearing assumption is you can actually finish the job and permanently prevent this.
Either that or set the program back significantly.
Also that other latent nuclear countries don't see this and decide they need nukes asap to prevent this from happening to them.
Or they might see what Iran is going through and decide to avoid the headache.
Also, there's a very credible argument that Iran was actually quite happy playing the game of "ooooh just you wait were totally gonna make a nuke any second now, ooooh baby it's coming"
Given Iran's incessant attacks on Israel through proxies; it's threat to wipe Israel off the map; it's chanting of "death to Israel" and "death to America"'; etc., it's reasonable to think it's pretty likely that Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons and would be pretty likely to use them against Israel given the opportunity.
That being said, anything is possible. Possibly the orbits of the planets are not actually ellipses but instead circular with lots and lots of epicycles. But if one of these isolationists consistently cares only about the US connection to Israel, well, there's a reasonable conclusion to be drawn.
resulting in the USA spending large amounts of money and things that go boom to keep you from getting MRBM'd
This is a good example of what I mean. The US spends a large amount of money and things on various other countries' defense. And yet for some reason, (some of) these isolationists only object when it's Israel.
deicide, again, to blow shit up in Iran, sucking in the USA even harder this time, resulting in the current quagmire.
It was reported in the news that part of the reason the US got involved was lobbying by Saudi leadership. If this turns out to be true (and it seems very likely to be true) I wonder how these isolationists will react.
omw_68
3d ago
This is false. If the Israelis are going in, knocking down houses or just taking them, then that is stealing land. QED. Again, Israel has been expanding in territorial size.
No, you are wrong. There is no nice way to put this: You are a liar. You are lying about this just like you lied about Israel attacking a girl's school in Iran. (Technically, you were probably bullshitting not lying.)
Whether it was Israel or America that attacked the girls school in Iran is not of great importance.
It's of great importance for assessing your credibility. You claimed that it was Israel without any supporting evidence, i.e. you lied. (Technically, you were probably bullshitting.) Just like you are lying/bullshitting about Israel using Gazans as human shields and stealing land.
I recall you were the one implying that it was somehow the Iranians who attacked their own school.
Please show me where I did this. Please QUOTE me. Failing that, please admit I said no such thing and apologize.
omw_68
3d ago
People in the West Bank should have equal rights. Israel should either annex it and give everyone citizenship or withdraw.
That would inevitably lead to a lot of bloodshed. If Israel withdrew, the then almost certainly (1) the Palestinian Arabs would refuse to accept having a Jewish minority in the way that Israel has an Arab minority, rather they would viciously persecute any Jews there; and (2) J & S / WB would be used as a staging ground for terrorist attacks against Israel, except that they would be in a position to cause far more carnage.
I think annexation + citizenship is a better option, but Israel needs to wait until there is a Jewish majority so that Israel's political system won't be overwhelmed with hostile elements who want to destroy the state.
Creating an interlocking jigsaw of Jewish and Arab towns with the Jewish ones fully integrated into Israel and the Arab ones surrounded little Bantustans is not sustainable or stable.
Why not?
One of my basic heuristics is that progressives are liars. I'm also pretty sure that China has a decent amount of ability to influence the Left in the West.
That being said, I agree with the other poster who pointed out that for purposes of policymaking, it should be assumed that this was a lab leak. Or to put it another way, the fact that a lab leak cannot be ruled out is sufficient basis for making significant changes to the rules and practices for this kind of research.
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