magicalkittycat
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User ID: 3762
magicalkittycat
5hr ago
The big lesson here IMO should be properly understanding the mandate. It won't be learned, but it should. The American people primarily care about bread and butter topics as always, and your win on those as the "best of two evil" does not mean free reign to throw away economic concerns and start doing whatever you want. Like it or not most Americans still think of the parties as giant douche vs turd sandwich, and if you're turd sandwich, you do not pile on extra shit after a win.
But that's exactly what happened. Consider the infamous "Harris is for they/them, Trump is for you" ad. The underlying message painted Harris as an idealogue concerned about irrelevant topics like trans people, and Trump as caring about the real topics. But what did Republicans take away from this? The exact opposite of what they should have learned, they hyper focused on culture war shit. They spent their ad focus and money saying tranny 50 times in a mirror hoping to summon the voters again, and it failed.
And likewise with overreach. Voters are very clear that they don't like trans people participating in their preferred sports, but in general they actually trust Democrats more on the overall topic!. Most voters don't want big daddy government coming in and repressing people's access to hormone treatments or discriminating in employment or anything like that.
Focusing the political discussion on trans people both makes the GOP look out of touch and cruel.
This has happened with Trump on basically every topic. The average voter does not consider the US in an existential crisis that needs 100 million deportations. They want a secure border where criminals can't get in, but they don't want a border so shut down and so hard to get visas with that their favorite voice actors are barred from entering. Yes a single concert by itself isn't a big deal, but it's not just a single concert. It is just one example of the many ways that overreach and a misunderstanding of the border mandate happened. Yet putting extremists in charge who want to limit foreigners of all kinds and of all types into the country inevitably leads to these fuckups.
And then if it wasn't for all this shit, there's also Trump specific problems too. Even if you're a hardcore conservative who thinks two years of idealogical overreach is worth the political sacrifice, Trump is barely even doing that well! He's focusing on his ballroom, the reflecting pool, threatening to invade Canada and Greenland over and over! He's probably spent more time on the white house's furnishings than he did trying to pass real legislation with the trifecta. Certainly even a hardcore idealogue is well aware of how no voter gives a shit about that and watching the president ignore the Real Issues in favor of such nonsense is a bad look right?
The good news for Republicans is that the Dems won this election so hard that they might get cocky overreach on their new mandate and fuck things up. The bad news is that Trump is still president and will not only be causing new issues (if 2025 Trump is threatening to invade Canada, maybe 2028 Trump is threatening to bomb France. Who knows at this point?) but just by having the seat and being the guy in charge will be eating the blame for general problems.
The big lesson here IMO should be properly understanding the mandate. It won't be learned, but it should. The American people primarily care about bread and butter topics as always, and your win on those as the "best of two evil" does not mean free reign to throw away economic concerns and start doing whatever you want. Like it or not most Americans still think of the parties as giant douche vs turd sandwich, and if you're turd sandwich, you do not pile on extra shit after a win.
But that's exactly what happened. Consider the infamous "Harris is for they/them, Trump is for you" ad. The underlying message painted Harris as an idealogue concerned about irrelevant topics like trans people, and Trump as caring about the real topics. But what did Republicans take away from this? The exact opposite of what they should have learned, they hyper focused on culture war shit. They spent their ad focus and money saying tranny 50 times in a mirror hoping to summon the voters again, and it failed.
And likewise with overreach. Voters are very clear that they don't like trans people participating in their preferred sports, but in general they actually trust Democrats more on the overall topic!. Most voters don't want big daddy government coming in and repressing people's access to hormone treatments or discriminating in employment or anything like that.
Focusing the political discussion on trans people both makes the GOP look out of touch and cruel.
This has happened with Trump on basically every topic. The average voter does not consider the US in an existential crisis that needs 100 million deportations. They want a secure border where criminals can't get in, but they don't want a border so shut down and so hard to get visas with that their favorite voice actors are barred from entering. Yes a single concert by itself isn't a big deal, but it's not just a single concert. It is just one example of the many ways that overreach and a misunderstanding of the border mandate happened. Yet putting extremists in charge who want to limit foreigners of all kinds and of all types into the country inevitably leads to these fuckups.
And then if it wasn't for all this shit, there's also Trump specific problems too. Even if you're a hardcore conservative who thinks two years of idealogical overreach is worth the political sacrifice, Trump is barely even doing that well! He's focusing on his ballroom, the reflecting pool, threatening to invade Canada and Greenland over and over! He's probably spent more time on the white house's furnishings than he did trying to pass real legislation with the trifecta. Certainly even a hardcore idealogue is well aware of how no voter gives a shit about that and watching the president ignore the Real Issues in favor of such nonsense is a bad look right?
If they had sent out monthly checks to all citizens for the past 2 years, and labeled them something like "rewards check for less illegals"
The effects of course are driving up the debt even further and massively accelerating the already quite high inflation. At some point we gotta start asking "with what money?" again when people propose insane spending ideas because we aren't even affording things now.
He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.
If the Senate doesn't approve of Trump's picks and therefore none of them happen, that's not a constitutional crisis. It's literally what the constitution says, the president (unless authorized by a passed law) must have their picks approved.
This is explicitly how the balance of powers is laid out, there is no confusion here. "But I don't like it" is not a crisis. If Trump has an issue with this, Trump should have been a better president so American citizens would vote in senators who agree with him on his nominees.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
As one of the main resident unpopular opinion havers here, I agree with the problem at least. I'll end up choosing a few replies to talk with, but still once in a while I'll get people mad at me for ignoring them, it creates an issue of following who is saying what if the topic continues on especially when there are similar usernames involved, and I'm also a human being and can't guarantee I'm not being selective or biased in who I choose to reply to!
That being said, I'm not sure about the solution suggested. One annoying thing about the Internet is seeing someone who agrees with your conclusion but not the reasoning.
Like let's say two people dislike a law limiting weed sales past 5pm, except one dislikes it because they want no limits and the other dislikes it cause they don't want it allowed at all. Who should represent the "this law is bad" side?
But even within the former of wanting no limits, what if you think the law is bad and weed should be always legal because of small government values but the person who gets appointed as argument representative is a dumb dudebro type who says weed cures cancer so it needs to be sold in case of emergency cancer treatment as their main point? I'm sure we've all experienced seeing people argue for "our side" of a topic in a way we don't agree with, either from their points or their behavior.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
Aren't the vast majority of amber alerts custody disputes of various types?
Yes, parents kidnapping a child after a separation is the most common form of abduction by far. The main person to fear is not your neighbor, but your ex.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
Jews in electoral terms are not a meaningful demographic nor are they likely to stay Republican for long (if we believe that they're even flipping) what with the rise of the groyper right.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
Maybe it's a unique NA thing but car centrism and loss of freedoms for kids seem to be directly related. A society where eyes are everywhere in the local neighborhood from people walking directly results in less crime. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_surveillance and helps people feel safer too when they actually see and know their neighbors more.
The people complaining about "diversity" or "lack of social cohesion" are missing the point; it is precisely because these crimes are white-on-white that the hysteria is generated.
Yeah as I pointed out in another comment race and immigration are irrational explanations for one simple reason, almost every crime against a child is by someone the child is related to or already knows well and therefore is almost always someone of the same race.
There are just not hordes of minority men prowling the streets kidnapping children. Mostly it's the parents! 60% of amber alerts are for a parent. And that's not counting other family members like siblings/aunts/uncles or things like a pastor/family friend/etc.
If we want to be paranoid of someone, we need to be paranoid of ourselves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_Abduction_Is_Not_Funny
Something's wrong with the kids, too. No child should tolerate that, and yet, something they should have grown out of in their teens persists into their twenties and beyond.
I agree, but we've socially set this up for them to think they are and act like they are children. We even have people trying to claim the age of 25 now as maturity! It's insane, and children raised into this society with empowered helicopter parents never get the chance to learn it can be different.
You can run, but you can't hide. Your wife needs to fight that law (and if she isn't, she's in the wrong), and you need to back her up (and if you don't, you're in the wrong). That's it.
No, the worst thing we could do to our kids is to be in jail trying to fight stupid laws. We find ways to help teach them accountability and such, we can tell by the fact that our eldest is way more mature than most of the other kids at their daycare as is. We set our standards high but fair and we get results. I just wish we could give our kids more freedom too, like playing outside in the yard without parents watching like I used to growing up.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
The mother and father are both white.
magicalkittycat
6d ago
Will be interesting to see if it turns out to be a lie, cause if she is lying about the babysitter bit then it would stand to reason other lies may be happening.
Race and immigration are irrational explanations for one simple reason, almost every crime against a child is by someone the child is related to or already knows well therefore it's mostly done with the same racial group. For example, 60% of amber alerts are just the parents, yet alone older siblings/aunts/uncles/babysitters/pastors/family friends/etc other groups that are known by the child already and thus very likely to be the same race as them.
Perhaps immigration and diversity erodes trust, but it doesn't hurt children. The people, the often same race people, in the childs life hurt children.
Teens babysitting is now illegal in Florida. Well, not technically, but practically so. A mother has been charged for leaving her 14 year old to watch her other kids (9, 11, 12) for a few days while she was on a work trip. She hired an adult babysitter to check on them twice a day too.
The youngest accidentally dropped a weight while working out, the type of accudent that can easily occur under adult supervision, they called 911 to get him medical help, and the cops proceeded to arrest the mom upon arriving back home. For the children's safety, they have now been placed with the father who is facing domestic abuse charges and has a restraining order against him, a very safe place indeed.
Here's another summary real quick of the important parts https://x.com/niah_x03/status/2115452369043652617
For those who refuse to read the articles about this case. She had a babysitter coming in the mornings to check in, make lunches, get them off to school, and prep dinner for them. All the 14 year old had to do was help them get inside after school. Microwave dinner. Get kids in bed and text mom updates. This was a work trip and they threatened to fire her if she did not go. The father has abuse charges and the police handed him their kids on top of arresting her.
I've talked about this topic before here on themotte, how children and teens are now treated as completely incapable babies and this will be enforced not just socially but through the law. If it's not immediately clear I think this is ridiculous. When I was a teen, my older sister (15) was babysitting other people's kids. There's even a popular book story from the 80s about young teens and tweens (yes, some were 12!) in middle school babysitting children as part of the babysitters club. And it's not just fiction, people did that in real life. For the younger folk here, this hysteria about leaving a teenager to watch over younger children as neglect is very new and very modern.
I've talked before about how my parents and grandparents would play all around the neighborhood in their own childhood, and yet now even walking in a gated community is deemed too dangerous. At this point I can't even let my own children have independence even if I wanted to (which I do), they literally are not allowed to grow as normal human beings used to because the cops might show up cause they're out on the front yard!
It is just another part of the helicopter parent hysteria as I've talked about before as well. There are young adults now in college who need their parents to walk them through basic life, come visit to do the laundry, and clean for them! We need less "parenting" and more freedom so kids can actually be mature instead of still crying for their mommies in college! Tweens now aren't even allowed to go to another aisle in the grocery store
I once had a great 25-26 year old intern recent graduate who still had her mother trying to butt in once when something happened at my work. She's lucky I'm very forgiving and understanding of her situation and I know that she was embarrassed about it too (I even helped her find a better living situation) but it's another example of how a lot of parents are so crazy nowadays like that!
And again, it's legally enforced now. It's so legally enforced that they'll take your kids away and give them to an abuser with a restraining order! Is this really the society we're stuck with now, where our children are increasingly coddled in their teens, sometimes into their 20s and 30s, never expected to grow up or learn responsibility?
magicalkittycat
13d ago
None of us will know more about this case than the prosecutor, who believed the stepdad was guilty. Since a trial won't happen now, I'll trust his judgement on who's lying.
Actually there are two people who knew more. Amy herself, and the father.
And the father was a man who saw a trial coming and thought oh fuck I'm gonna be found guilty due to the available evidence. And because he is literally a criminal who fled the courts, we never got to see the results but we sure do know what he was expecting!
It's about as close to a layman's admission of guilt as we can get.
magicalkittycat
13d ago
So again, it seems less "they think the criminal justice system needs to be softer on crime" and more "they're trying to use every tool they can reach for, including distorting child sex abuse". That's disgusting
I did back it up, right here. I don't think they really doubt it happened, they just don't give a fuck that it did. 12 year old Amy Acton (actually I think it was 9 years old when the abuse started) grew up to be a Democrat so who gives a shit?
magicalkittycat
14d ago
and the husband was a tragic victim of a justice system too quick to take a disturbed child's inventions as gospel.
I'm sorry, I'm supposed to believe that Vance and Ramyswamy's stance on the criminal justice system is that it's just too harsh (something that fails to show in pretty much any other topic) instead of that they don't care and are trying to use every method they can to take down Acton.
The father was a fugitive from the law! They're literally backing a guy who was accused of sexual abuse by two children and then skipped out of state while out on bail. He is a man who saw a trial coming and thought oh fuck I'm gonna be found guilty due to the available evidence. And because he is literally a criminal who fled the courts, we never got to see the results but we sure do know what he was expecting!
who believes that the rape did occur but was no big deal.
So again, it seems less "they think the criminal justice system needs to be softer on crime" and more "they're trying to use every tool they can reach for, including distorting child sex abuse". That's disgusting!
What else am I supposed to call choosing to side with a child rapist fugitive and his enabler over a victim?
That is evil and normal voters seem to agree considering how Ramyswamy's chances have plummeted. There is no need for Vance to defend this, but he does so anyway the same way there's supposedly no reason to cover up the Epstein files and yet..
magicalkittycat
14d ago
magicalkittycat
14d ago
TTSU being fake is not relevant to the conversation, so I didn't expect you were actually trying to deflect the conversation there.
How is the organization that literally sent the flyers not relevant? If it wasn't for them, this conversation would not exist! They are the most relevant group in the discussion.
magicalkittycat
14d ago
"it's correct" is the proper response to a false claim of "that's not correct". The truth is always the proper goal.
If they want to goalpost shift from that and give their "real objection" after, feel free but I don't take it as seriously.
In general I'm all for the "we should wait until trial finds someone guilty" argument, but they literally fled the state while out on bail and hid until his death. Even if he was actually innocent of the rape, he's a literal fugitive that the mother helped and supported! Those details are to be settled in court, not by whether or not she personally believes them (and that's assuming she doesn't believe the allegations instead of just not caring/supporting it).
In any other world that should be a disqualifying reason to prop up the mom by itself.
But as always now the GOP ratchet is to simply double down. Support a child predator on accident? The 12 year old must have had it coming.
magicalkittycat
14d ago
I don't know how to feel about this. On the one hand, I kinda understand the fundamental argument for Taxes: someone needs to pay for government services.
This is literally the issue, money must come from somewhere. Every dollar of tax that a retired boomer getting 3k a month off social security with a paid off house now worth 10x they bought it for fifty years ago they get to stop paying, is another dollar charged to someone else someway else.
Just look at the mess of California's property tax to see this in action, the old pay basically nothing so the young pay basically everything. Your money already goes to a 75 year old couple spending it all on cruises and casinos, and they get free services from the city on top.
magicalkittycat
14d ago
Are you claiming that the actual beliefs of real trans advocacy organizations are propaganda lies
I'm going to leave the exercise of looking up propaganda's definition to you this time, you might be surprised to learn it also doesn't require lies.
You said
The organization is real and serious, it was created for the explicit purpose of trans advocacy.
But TTSU the ones who sent the flyers are not real and serious.
If you reread my comment
The organization isn't a serious one, it was created for the explicit purpose of doing something real activists weren't doing, sending out flyers to students.
I am clearly speaking about TTSU, the flyer sending organization, which is a not real and serious organization.
You confused TTSU with TENT, which is a real organization but did not send the flyers.
How does being unauthorized make anything they said untrue?
Not relevant, "the fake group said true things while pretending to represent a real group" doesn't make them a real organization. The TTSU is fake and was created last month https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/transgender-mailers-22485877.php
Even Republican politicians acknowledge it's not real!
“A legitimate group does not send something like that from a fake address with a fake name, especially on the first day of early voting,” said Dade Phelan, a Beaumont Republican and the former speaker of the Texas House.
The ad has two simple parts
"Harris is for they/them" = Harris is concerned about someone else's issues, particularly a pet cultural issue of trans folk who no one cares about.
"Trump is for you" = Trump cares about the topics you care about.
Now we can go and check polling to see what voters actually care about cause they'll tell us! And affordability/prices/economy has continued to be the no 1 issue over and over and over again, and transgender people (for or against) continue to be one of the least cared about topics.
The ad would not work if it was "Harris for they/them, Trump against they/them", because voters don't give a shit either way! They see it all as unimportant.
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