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TiltingGambit


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 06 03:37:58 UTC

				

User ID: 804

TiltingGambit


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 06 03:37:58 UTC

					

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User ID: 804

The "businesses only care about quarterly profits" crowd don't seem to have ever talked to a business owner/founder/competent CEO/mid tier+ chairman.

It's a meme that only lives in the minds of those critical of business or stock markets.

Saying that a country has never been longterm-pilled is actually even more egregious. And I don't know how hard you're redefining things or playing word games to say families don't take a long term view of life. I certainly do, so does almost everybody I know.

never been a long term policy of a corporation, nation, or even family

Post a definition of what you mean by "longtermism" and I'll post 20,000 examples to demonstrate that there are businesses, countries and families that have all had a long term visions of the future, and have worked towards them. Short of you saying "longterm" actually means "2,000 years" this seems like a totally indefensible comment. And if your view od short term is "quarterly reporting" then I'm going to suggest longterm should be in the range of 10 to 20 years.

Yeah that’s an interesting take.

I disagree that the problem is she's too busy and energetic, and submit she's just picky and is waiting for prince charming.

No. No, there is not. The reason I say this is because I do know of atleast one person who does match that energy - and the amount of hoops that he had to jump through to find someone who did match him was... well, it wasn't herculean, but it was definitely more than one and definitely more than you'd expect given the guy in question.

I don't understand this. You're saying nobody wants to match her energy (there are definitely guys who are super energetic and want other people like this, too) but you know a guy and his GF made him jump through hoops? I don't think hoop jumping is limited to high energy girls.

If anything, you detailing her list of hobbies explains pretty much everything about her and why she's having so much trouble.

Again, I don't get this. Having a lot going on is a good thing for most people. She's certainly doing what she can to avoid being boring and not relying on her looks.

Agree on all points. I mentioned in another reply that in addition to her real monday-friday job, she is also a qualified physio and is still working at a hospital on sundays. I'm guessing she has half a chance with a doctor who comes out of a bad break up or something.

A huge variety. The usual chick stuff, she does pilates, has a side gig cake making business, works a second job at a hospital as a physio on sundays (I suspect her plan with this is to meet a doctor), studied data analytics in her spare time, mostly for fun and to help her with random tasks at work. She's done a lot of different dance styles, coaches high school gymnastics.

She also does charity work.

Whether you're interested in those things or not, she is definitely out there doing things. And compared to the average instagram scroller, she might be in the top 5% in terms of extra curricular activity. And she's a thin, blonde, athletic looking person. She's attractive.

I'm not single, and I'm more her big brother type of work friend. I would never date her because she's got way too much going on in a week to week kinda way. But there's a lot of guys who would be able and very willing to match her energy (I would have though??)

I have an objectively hot female friend who would be a total catch for any guy. Very confident, green flags around being able to fit in with guy-groups, heaps of hobbies, etc. She's single at 32 and doesn’t seem to have had meaningful relationships, and isn't hooking up or anything.

Got to talking about her dating life. I asked her why not go to a bar. She said "do I really want a guy who does bars and clubs at 32?"

I do think she's holding out for a top 5% earner who's tall and handsome.

She's done a recent round of dates off apps. Nobody got a second date. She's seriously disappointed with the type of guys she has available to her. And my thinking is that most great guys (ha) are probably locked down by a great girl (ha) at that age.

She did the career thing, and has somewhat waited out the pool of guys that she considers worthy of a relationship. She's probably going to settle for somebody at one point and be somewhat quietly disappointed.

Israel's policy of trying to ethnically cleanse Gaza and move millions of refugees

You people love to say Israel has a policy of genocide, when it's at least ambiguous at best. But if I go through your post history, am I going to see dozens of posts about Hamas specifically, and Palestinians generally, who DEFINITELY and EXPLICITLY have a policy of genocide, and see any criticism of them?

Israel has the capability to kill every Gazan tomorrow. But they dont have the intent to do so. If the Palestinians could kill every Jew on the Earth, they would do it by yesterday.

I'm so sick of this unidirectional accountability. It's disgustingly racist, baked in a dressing of progressive ideology.

Queers for Palestine levels of bizareness

"And then the people will rise up..." is generally a good way to tell whether an operation is going to work out or not.

Yeah I remember this happening. I think a lot went woke because they'd spent their whole lives arguing against the conservatives and had eatablishes social and family links to left wing groups. Aronra seemed to fit this bill when he (briefly) began turning his atheism attention to the new culture war. It seemed like his wife, or something, was a big feminist and he tried to migrate his audience into a pro feminist sphere. Didn't work, he lost a lot of support and just went back to debating creationists.

  1. there is only so much demand for consumables and market goods and services, so that economic demand begins to be overshadowed by status concerns and non-economic spheres of life in terms of desired things

We already have, in effect, a trial run of post scarcity civilisations. Not complete or total, obviously. But western society is long past needing to worry about food and water.

I think men will play games and have fun in that kind of sci fi world. They'll find new and interesting things to pursue. They'll go sailing or rock climbing.

Women will play the status games, become depressed and create social problems via whatever the next social media is. Unless AI can turn this behaviour more productive at least.

I presume the kind of scottish teenagers who carry hatchets to the park are the kind who know not to brandish them as they walk down the street.

On priors, I would find it more likely that young men harass some underage girls than that some underage girls get out of their way to threaten some young immigrant men, but stranger things than the latter have happened.

The bayes calc on it would just be a total win for the "he touched the girls" take.

If you are using judicial verdicts to update your world view

Reminds me of the Australian SAS warcrime case. Footage was released of what was inarguably an extra judicial killing of a captured and unarmed man. Like, I'm ex Australian army and not even I could deny that these guys were guilty of murder. But there were still hundreds of people saying "they haven't been convicted yet" and "the investigation hasn't been concluded."

https://old.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1lccwjc/australian_sasr_during_their_deployment_to/

But we could see it with our own eyes. You can see in real time the murder happening, zero grounds for self defence. In war you get away with shooting the odd POW, sure. That guy could have been making IEDs or have personally killed Australians, sure. But if you get caught on camera you go to jail. That's how the world works. Why do people insist on the outcome of the investigation or the court ruling when they can see with their own eyes the crime occurring.

It's a weird deferral of responsibility, even though we know the courts are wrong all the time.

It seems like your explanation covers only half the story. And the alternative explanation covers the other half. In the original video the girls are screaming "don't fuckin' touch us over and over." They're still obviously carrying weapons. Why isn't the middle of the road opinion that some Scottish "neds" were walking around with knives (your take) and were felt up by the guy at some point (braveheart take) explaining why they were yelling and brandishing weapons while backing away?

Let's see what the normies think of this:

I've said it before but Reddit has become so bad I just can't log in anymore. It used to be longer takes, with more reasonableness than Twitter. But now it's like 90% one liner, gut reation posts.

No amount of explaining does the trick either. They just downvote and ignore. I once tried to defend Palantir as being not the source of pure evil it's purported to be. Literally nobody even knows what it does. But literally nobody cares either. They've classified it as evil and that's the end of the story.

No, I'm saying that law already exists where I live. And if you'd read my post more keenly you'd recognise I'm not suggesting any new laws (no idea where you got this from) and arguing for the exact opposite of a police state. Like, the exact opposite. Reducing the amount of cases that go to court by using common sense is a great way to avoid police/legal over reach.

That's certainly what you seem to be saying.

It's usually a very bad conversation etiquette to tell somebody what they're saying, especially after they've said they're not saying it.

Speeding offences might have latitude. Something that may end up in court obviously doesn't. Something where a supervisor might have a different opinion, you're going to have to steer towards that.

multi-tier citizenry and where everyone's technically guilty at all times

That's the exact opposite of what I said.

This is a misunderstanding of how bodycam footage works- the storage capacity on bodycam footage is not infinite

It's ten years in my jurisdiction at a minimum. With appeals this might be 15+.

Routine stops like that aren't getting reviewed by a supervisor

Yes they are, and at any time they can be. Officers can have a full shift review if e.g. they ding their vehicle or receieve a complaint. Or for any other reason the supervisor has to check.

Police supervisors have actual jobs to do that don't entail personally watching officers do theirs(they system was set up to have officers work with limited supervision).

Obviously their job is to supervise and some portion of that is reviewing arrests or interactions.

It's not even my higher level point anyway. Police now have to operate as if their footage might be looked at in the future. This stops dirty cops planting guns, sure. But it also stops good cops from applying the law commensurate with the intent of the law.

Yes but in practice nobody does want it. They want the intent of the law followed. If they're generally they safe drivers they want to be pulled over and given a warning for marginal speeding. They don't want a guy to say "the rules are the rules" and give them a ticket.

But they also want serial speeders heavily punished for making the streets unsafe.

enabling discriminatory enforcement at worst.

That's my point. I accept it's unpopular, but we actually do want discrimination in the application of the law. A law written to reduce the amount of 16 year olds stabbing people on the train can't be written as "but let grandpas with swiss army knives go". We can instead rely on the cop to use his common sense.

Not validated their arguments- many of the arguments against police body cams simply fell flat. And not disproven reformist fears of bad actors. But the pro-police coalition seem to have largely been happy enough for bad eggs to be subject to the appropriate processes, which is part of how institutions cultivate/sustain popular legitimacy over time. Meanwhile footage of Actual Incidents (TM) can paint a lot of pictures of a lot of other bad eggs on the other sides that polite company, and media, often downplayed or ignored.

I'm in a position to watch body cam footage on occasion as part of my job. I think there is one other factor that should be explored as an extension of the above.

Firstly, when an officer is wearing a body camera they do act differently. A cop's supervisor is always in a position to have a look at the footage, and this encourages stricter adherence to protocols than without the body cam. If you're a left-wing voter, you probably think this is great.

But there's a cost to having police constantly aware that their actions might be scrutinised too. That dad who forgot he had a stanley knife in his pocket on the way home from work gets pulled up by police? Police are now in a position where they cannot use their personal judgement about the matter, and instead are forced to charge the guy. The law was clearly written with the intent to stop hoodie wearing 16 year old boys carrying knives on trains, but the law isn't supposed to discriminate, so can't be written to target e.g. scummy looking teenagers. Previously, common sense would largely prevail. Now? If you exercise common sense as a police officer, you may be pulled up for breaking policy upon returning to the station.

You can do the same exercise with speeding, assault, neighbourhood disputes. Police frequently let people off with a warning, or just used their authority to resolve a situation outside of court. But now, just being a good community cop who enforces the intent of the law isn't a thing. You're going to have to charge everybody with everything and let the magistrate decide what to do with them.

A particular case I know of was a country cop who had been in the same region for about 15 years. A years long dispute between farming neighbours over everything from "he's stealing too much water from my dam" to "he waved his gun in my face" had been routinely resolved by the cop showing up and adjudicating the problems. A very old school town sheriff type story. When body cams were implemented, his ability to do this was grossly perverted. He could no longer personally resolve these issues, and was being forced to e.g. confiscate guns, suspend drivers licences, report problems to the EPA around the water sources, etc. I'm not so much lamenting the sheriff-style approach as I am the issues that arise from deferring problem resolution to a blind, unfeeling public entity. The EPA ruled that one guy couldn't access the water anymore (despite it having been shared for thirty years) and crushed the neighbour's farm. The other guy had his licence suspended and had to abandon the farm to live with his son.

I think it's pretty uncontroversial to say that body camera footage has been an almost complete victory for the conservatives (as you are implying above) in the sense that now everybody can see that these guys getting shot generally did everything they could to get themselves shot. To show that police aren't just finding black guys to rough up, they just tend to be the type to act crazy in a shopping centre carpark on average.

But there has been at least some cost to body camera footage. Every cop knows if he lets the 50 year old white woman go with a warning, but charges the young mexican gang-banger, there's always a possibility that some organisation pulls the footage, calls you a racist and ruins your career and reputation. For me, I want the law applied differently in different circumstances. I know that's very open to rebuttal, but I'd prefer a world where cops are trusted to use their own personal judgement too.

Most comments about Trump being literally Hitler aren't about Jan 6th. They're about things that he does that look or feel bad. Most/many/all of those things aren't anything even resembling a threat to democracy. Most/many/all of the things people don't like Trump are things that are absolutely legal, supported by about 50% of the population, but they just disagree with. Most are complete nothing burgers, and others are just Trump being a terrible person/politician/statesman/geopolitician. These things are being framed as things that are going to destroy democracy in America.

And I just don't see some losers in plastic Viking helmets running into the Capitol as being comparable to the Night of the Long Knives. And I don't think anybody really sees Hitler in Trump. Hitler was a big person, with grand plans. He was planning the invasion of Russia since 1925 when he published his book. And his book had some serious geopolitical insights. Trump's book is on how to make deals, and he seems to be pretty shit at that. Trump is a small man, with small plans. He's thinking about hotel deals, not Lebensraum.

I will grant that Jan 6th looks bad and makes people worry. I would not categorise almost any other facet of what Trump does as comparable to Hitler or America to Hitler's Germany. The panic that people are experiencing is not commensurate with the person they're worried about, or the reality on the ground. Trump is not going to be the president in a few years, America will continue, the NASDAQ will go up and to the right, and everybody will forget about the cringe tiktoks they were making in 2026.

I ask because I tried to implement your option (a) with a "It's not 2018 anymore, nobody gives a shit about this patriarchy shit" to match their unthinking dismissal. I unfortunately didn't have the follow through in real time to deliver a critical hit.