anti_dan
3hr ago
Yeah I blame Israel for attacking Iran and starting this war. The Hormuz blockade was an entirely foreseeable consequence of that.
Only if you think the Iranians have no agency.
anti_dan
1d ago
Appeals inherently dull the intended effects of deterrence and the lack of ability for a prisoner exchange.
If due process is what the objection is, well, maybe thats true. Or maybe modern due process is actually an affront to victims rights.
anti_dan
1d ago
Antisemitism is a result of massive, society-wide misinformation perpetuated by the press, universities, and social media. This is the “wall of dead children” model. Israel’s actions don’t really matter because they will be twisted and misrepresented anyways. The solution is to exert more control over the information environment.
I mean, I suppose I fall into this camp.
When I look at Israel's actions during the relevant time periods where support for the state has gone down, I simply think they couldn't have done anything different, or at least substantially different. Because of the way Hamas and Hezbollah operate, every square foot of an area they occupy ends up being a legitimate military target. This is, of course, famously schools, hospitals, mosques, etc. If you want to disable Hamas soldier and rockets, you basically have no choice but to bomb targets in those categories. This will then create the "wall of dead children" as you put it. IMO responsible reporting would ignore said dead children, or, if they did report, emphasize strenuously that the children were killed by Hamas's actions.
That said this isn't unique to Israel. The same tactics are deployed by American press against America all the time. The press, as a rule, does not like competency and patriotism, and the mix of competency with patriotism is particularly offensive to them. Well, Israel is both so they will be hated by the press.
Does antisemitism help drop Israel below the floor that the press can drive America to? Yes. But the press's vitriol for a winner is even more important.
anti_dan
2d ago
In practice, third parties affected by either blockade will judge it in their interests not to start a war over it.
This is, also, why in practice the JCPOA was folly.
anti_dan
2d ago
I've yet to see any rigorous studies showing that transition is helpful in reducing objective measurements like suicide, criminality, etc .
In any case the happiness of the trans is orthogonal to whether they are delusional, and the appropriate measures society takes to limiting the delusional population from committing acts of violence.
anti_dan
3d ago
To be honest, seems fair.
No one ever said this before when anyone did this against ships flagged by or en route to neutral countries.
People are making up a bunch of new rules just to help Iran out.
anti_dan
3d ago
I've been getting ads against this act on some podcasts. I would say that it is absolutely in the category of a bad law. "Think of the Children" is the alleged reason. Huge delegation to agencies. Almost no specifics.
If you wanted to actually help children, you'd withhold federal funds from any school that allows cell phones inside the building.
anti_dan
3d ago
There was clearly much wrong with this person beyond anything to do with being trans.
This is always the case with shooters. It is also always the case with trans people.
Whether trans is an extra violent subset of the persons who are very delusional and crazy is for researchers. Meanwhile, treating them akin to paranoid skitzophrenics is mostly appropriate via the precautionary principle. It is just as likely that a man is truly a woman as it is that a man's dog is satan and ordering him to kill people. Perhaps the latter is even more likely, many prominent philosophers of the ages have thought demons were real.
anti_dan
5d ago
Grade inflation has made that a thing of the past. A significant portion of the T12 and T50 discourage graduates from putting their gpa(if it exists) on resumes.
anti_dan
6d ago
As someone who has taken and passed the bar exam, I am much more perplexed as to how anyone can manage to fail. I legitimately think there is a very good chance I got 100% on the multiple choice portion of the exam. Alas, we will never know because this is from there era where you didn't get scores, just a simple pass/fail.
anti_dan
7d ago
These from top 50 law schools?
Mostly. We basically hire from the Big10, Notre Dame, and some other major midwest schools. AI guy was a Wisconsin Law grad.
anti_dan
7d ago
I'm not exactly old, but I'm sure as hell not young either. For those of you who are 25 or under, what does it feel like on the ground right now?
I am not under 25, but I basically hire them and certainly train them (well, 25-26 mostly, but I think it applies).
It is bleak. The problem is all these application avenues. These kids apply to 1000 jobs, that all have 10k applicants. By the time I even see them they dont even know why they got this interview as opposed to 99 others they didn't even get an email about. For the select few (aka non white/asians still) they have the opposite problem. They apply to 10 places, and are discombobulated by 10 interviews, 10 confusing offers that are the same but different in all sorts of ways. Often I am telling THOSE persons that there is no way we can offer a competitive salary because they have interviewed at places whos base pay is the equivalent of ours + bonus. Sometimes 1.5x ours + bonus.
And that is on top of the obvious indirect nepotism at top firms. Dad A has son B, and Dad 1 has Son 2. Dad A hires son 2, Dad 1 hires son B. Sons 2 and B are pretty below average for where they are going, but now are on the fast track. Hmm. And, honestly, because of the infinite hiring sites and HR being a cluster, who can even blame them? All their hires suck except that one kid a year out of 10. Why hire rando #7 instead of your golf buddie's son when they both will be essentially useless?
And they all are essentially useless by the way. Our grades 9-12 and Universities are failing. Law schools are especially failing, I get summer associates and associates regularly that cannot draft coherent 3 page motions or briefs. Multiple people have been caught by partners on major cases submitting fake (presumably AI generated) case citations. Sometimes this only get caught on appeal.
The whole education system needs to be scrapped and replaced with something new. Faster, cheaper, better.
anti_dan
8d ago
Why might Iran want nuclear weapons? In large part because the US goes around attacking countries that lack nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un sleeps at night because he has nuclear weapons. Saddam Hussein, Qaddafi and Assad are dead or in exile because they lacked nuclear weapons.
They've seemingly always wanted them for the purpose of deploying them against the US and Israel. Yes also so they can do their terrorism in the Middle East without fearing reprisals.
The best way to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is to negotiate sincerely, flush every piece of hysterical Israeli 'intelligence' straight down the toilet and get on with pursuing national interests, in contrast to slavishly serving Israel.
That's what Europe's general stance has been. Diplomacy, trade, win-win. The US has wrecked this and done its absolute best to make a strong case for Iranian nuclearization. Quite clearly Iran's conventional forces have failed to deter attacks on the country.
I think this is the European approach because they have no other approach. If Iran makes moves towards nuclearization they just shrug and say, "aww shucks." If Iran engages in piracy against their vessels they just shrug and say, "aww shucks."
The US launched this retarded war, without any clear plan for victory, without even the necessary capabilities for victory. The US army can't be deployed quickly enough to bases that are being bombed out and would probably bog down in the first couple of major cities before even reaching Tehran. The US air force can post all these epic videos of explosions (real or decoys, nobody knows) but cannot seem to prevent Iran firing off waves of missiles and drones, cannot defeat Iran's plan to inflict economic pain until the US gives up.
Yeah, it was a bad war. Not for these reasons. For the reason that Trump should have no Europe wouldn't like it, and most of America wouldn't like it because war is expensive. AND most importantly because everyone should have known what was actually necessary to win the war, which was actions that America has not taken since 1945 and is unlikely to take until it is in an actual existential war.
Trump has played into the Iranian plan masterfully, obsessing about market manipulation. He shows weakness every day of the week, while constantly backflipping and making fresh ultimatums, then extending them. One day he unsanctions Iranian oil to lower prices, the next he blockades Iran. Inconstant and incoherent. An ideal target for a prolonged economic campaign.
Yeah, the Trump chaos plan doesnt work against people who would strap a bomb to themselves if they thought it would kill 5 Americans.
The US navy can blockade Iran but cannot undo Iran's blockade of the straits. They cannot defeat Iran's plan.
Because Europe accepts piracy of its own vessels because they are mad at Trump.
Imagine if Israel did this to the Suez Canal everytime Hamas or Hezbollah attacked them. You wouldn't be making this same stupid argument.
European forces don't have the capability to do what the US can't, there is no reason for them to charge into the valley of death. It's egregious for the US to pussy out, slinking away from the straits with the 'world's most powerful navy' and demand their allies charge in and die, for the sake of a war that directly harms their interests.
Its true they can't do what we cant, but its plausible (unlikely because they are comically useless as a general rule) they could do what we are UNWILLING to do, which is land ground forces and seize all access to the straight. They could deploy escort ships to the straight. They would, of course, do those things if Morocco was mining the Straight of Gilbralter over a border dispute with Algeria and shooting at French, British, and German vessels and demanding $100 billion annually in tolls for using said waterway.
anti_dan
8d ago
They were willing to PRETEND to give up their nuclear program to do so. The JCPOA was entered into by Iran in 2015. In 2016 they still had a large supply of Uranian enriched to higher than civilian percentages, still had several military grade centrifuges, etc. Many parties (aka all the ones that weren't invested in the JCPOA) stated Iran was already violating its requirements under JCPOA.
anti_dan
8d ago
They have been in the state of sanctions and still proceeded with the program.
anti_dan
8d ago
But in terms of blocking Iran from getting a nuke, it would have indeed been very effective. That was the whole point.
How? None of the parties were willing to do enforcement. All it did, realistically, was enrich Iran and make gas cheaper in Europe.
If Iran went on to use all that money to enrich Uranium...what? Sternly worded letter from Paris London and Berlin?
anti_dan
8d ago
The military also uses power and bridges. And they even eat food. There is basically no such thing as a non military target.
anti_dan
8d ago
Those (aside from #2 in a serious country) are valid concerns. But my real question is basically "how can you expect to win a war if you are unwilling to actually damage the opponent?"
anti_dan
8d ago
If that's the specific concern, they would be encouraging all US action up to nukes and submitting their own conventional forces in support of US efforts. This would prevent Iran nuclear efforts and show solidarity against the tactic of state sanctioned piracy.
Instead they are complaining about the wrong party and, let's look at Ukraine, an anemic response there is what has happened.
anti_dan
8d ago
My concern, as it has always been during this war, is why would there be hesitancy to do "Power and Bridge Day"?
If I was in the cabinet, I would have probably (I dont have their info) opposed launching the war. That is because, I'd have known that "Power and Bridge Day" would not only come, it would be necessary, early, and ongoing. Modern economies are all civilian/military mixes. You can't just target military and win. America has known this since at least Vietnam. Israel just had this happen in Gaza. If you aren't willing to destroy infrastructure, you aren't ready for war (and this is a minimum).
"Quantity has a quality of its own" is probably apocryphal, but it is true with bombing and artillery. To win you gotta just get rid of people in your way via death and maiming. You can't win a war being careful unless the opponent is a joke. This is even more true when the enemy is doing tactics like Iran is where they use your own success against you and domestic opponents are actually the threat. Proper warring is always going to turn the enemy territory into killing fields until the tactic of crying about civilian suffering is banished.
This seems like the opposite of correct. You could almost certainly stop human rights abuses in Belarus and Sudan with decent sized cash payments (totally not bribes). There is a plausible military path to regime change in Iran wherein a non-human rights violating government comes to power.
The only plausible path to ending human rights abuses in Palestine is by doing one big, quick, human rights abuse and shoving them all into boats and dropping them off somewhere they are not near lots of Jews. Madagascar has been floated elsewhere in this thread in other contexts. Works well for this plan.
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