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Ok what is the adjusted risk of opening a business? Adjusted for competence that is.
It's more or less a truism that most businesses fail (to break even, forget survive). But most people would probably fail at getting STEM degree as well.
What is the risk for someone like me with a relatively high IQ, high conscientiousness, lack of emotion or lack of any retarded world models, fairly trustable person like me?
I've been thinking this because having met some unsuccessful entrepreneurs, I wouldn't trust them to manage a microwave, if that is my competition, then I might actually not be as doomed to the wage slave life as I think.
The successful ones I met are a better group on average, but not the entire group!
Of course ik ik it depends on a thousand factors, but let's just focus on this now. The average business owner is.... Average!
One of the biggest factors is clearly going to be the type of business you want to start. Setting up a McDonald’s franchise is going to require a significant amount of work and dedication but is likely to have a reasonably high chance of making you rich.
A traditional VC backed software startup might have higher potential upside but its sharpe ratio is pretty likely to be considerably lower.
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