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There's no room for a bounce.
PA is the most likely turning point state. Unemployment in PA is at 3.4%; living here I can verify that I pass multiple billboards from big businesses looking for workers, and every small business I know is desperate for help.
There is no functional room to improve that number between now and November. In 2012 unemployment declined from 9.6 in 2010 to 8.1 in 2012. That was a difference I felt all around me. We probably don't have room for even a .5% reduction this year. Inasmuch as there's an industrial reserve army at all, it's people who have dropped out of the workforce, and getting them back in is a five year project at least.
The actual economic issues we see, primarily housing and healthcare, aren't going to be addressed. Probably can't be, definitely not things Democrats are interested in doing.
There's no economic way out for Biden.
Surely the economic way out for Biden is that the economic vibes continue to drift in the direction of the actual state of the economy. Unemployment doesn't need to drop further in PA, voters just need to realise that it is at 3.4%
The election is close in a world where the median voter thinks the economy sucks. If the median voter realises that the economy does not, in fact, suck, then Biden wins on fundamentals.
I wrote that possibility off at this point. I just don't see any evidence that Biden is going to get better at selling his policies to the American people all of a sudden.
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