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Okay, I'd really like TheMotte to talk me down from crazy-town and conspiracy-ville.
Exhibit A: Secret Service was warned of an Iranian (or Iran-backed) assassination threat against Trump (Source)
Which means that the Saturday shooting represents a high-water mark in Trump's security detail.
Exhibit B: Secret Service snipers spotted Thomas Crooks in position on the roof 20 minutes before the assassination attempt. (Source) Per the article's timeline:
Which means the Secret Service knew there was an active threat, 10 minutes before they allowed Trump to take the stage. This is separate from the 2-minute 'crowd pointing at guy with gun on roof' warning where the Secret Service failed to move Trump off the stage.
Exhibit C: Secret Service has stated that 'local police' were supposed to be responsible for covering the American Glass Research (AGR) building. However, both the county (Source) and city police (Source) have denied that they were so assigned.
Apparently, there were local police -- including snipers -- inside an adjacent or conjoined building in the complex (Source), but no one's been identified as responsible for the building itself or the roof itself. I've heard unsourced rumors that a SWAT team was supposed to be assigned to the specific roof the shooter used, but instead congregated within the building due to the heat (Source) but there's been no confirmation.
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I know my Hanlon's Razor:
However, at this point I'm gaining an appreciation for Grey's Law:
If the wildest conspiracy theories and worst nightmares were true, if US Secret Service did deliberately set out to create a hole in Trump's security to allow him to be assassinated... what would they have done differently? How much more could the USSS have f***ed up their protection before we'd be comfortable drawing a line between 'smoke' and 'fire'?
And if Hanlon's Razor does bears out and it was in fact merely incompetence... then we apparently live in a world where this is the best the US Secret Service can do while on high alert, actively preparing to defend their protectee against an Iranian-backed assassination attempt. Which leads me to wonder, how vulnerable are the rest of US leadership to enemy agents?
If there are this many layers of "they dropped you on your head as a baby, didn't they?" when the Secret Service has direct warning of a major threat, what the hell kind of protection does the President have, or the Vice-President, or any of the other notable names with a USSS detail?
If the US Secret Service was 'security theater' in the same vein as the TSA, what happens when the curtain is pulled back and everyone sees that the Wizard of Oz is just a sad little man in a booth? Should we expect to see more -- and more successful -- assassination attempts with actual muscle behind them in the near future?
And why in the name of all that is holy does Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle still have a job?!
Trump does way more outdoors events, and events in general, than the average President-tier politician. Having to protect Trump, who both constantly does outdoor rallies and has fewer resources assigned to him than an actual President would, yet is also is one of the most hated US politicians of all time, is probably just really tough for the Secret Service. I can't think of any Presidential candidate or President other than Trump in recent memory who keeps traveling around the country constantly giving outdoor speeches. I think it's plausible that the Secret Service is just out of their depth, they are set up to guard an Obama or Biden type who mostly stays in DC or gives speeches at indoors venues, but they are not set up to effectively guard a Trump.
"I love being a firefighter. The pay is good, the guys are a great team, I really like the support I get from the community. But man, do I hate fires. Every time there's one I feel like quitting, you know?"
Protecting the VIP is literally their job description. It's not like Trump's traveling around Iran or gatecrashing Black Bloc parties. An outdoor speech is something the SS must have a goddamn checklist for.
"Agent Black, you secure building A." Agent Black pulls out a checklist and goes down the list: call the owner, establish the list of people who have access to the building, which ones have to access it on the day of the speech, call them and get their pictures, identify doors which provide access to the windows facing the scene and the rooftop, identify how many ingress points have to be secured, call local police to get more warm bodies, give them their own checklists. On the day of the event do a roll-call, search the premises, seal the doors of the searched rooms and check the seals every X minutes, redo the roll call via radio every Y minutes, identify each person that approaches the building and cross-reference them against the list, turn away those who aren't on the list, escort those who are...
Someone obviously thought they could get away with some corner cutting. Or worse, "presenting a positive image". No, you have to be an asshole. If someone tells you they work there and they forgot their iPad in their locker and they are not on the list of people that have access to the building, they get to ride in the back of a cruiser until you find out why they are not on the list. If they are on the list, but not on the list of people that have to be there today, you tell them to stay the fuck away until the VIP leaves. If they get nervous, they get to ride in the back of a cruiser too, and you go check the lockers just in case their iPad is shaped more like an AR-15.
The Secret Service probably does do this. But the Secret Service was not "in charge" of the building. At least allegedly. And you know that Officer Black is not going to be as diligent. We all know how often a lot of cops sit in their comfy air-conditioned cop car on their laptop... not to be a dick, but it happens. So yes, corner cutting, 1000%. The conversation is about how much and how bad and how foreseeable those cut corners were. We're getting a clearer picture but we haven't seen the report yet, if they've even put it together yet.
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