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Notes -
What is the response that the US government will have toward Russia if (when?) they deploy nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict?
What's the response other European countries, or NATO will have?
It seems more and more likely that Russia will be facing a choice between capitulation on Ukraine or further escalation, and I personally think its rather likely some kind of nuclear bomb will be detonated somewhere in the next year or two. Would the western response be different if it was the lowest form of escalation, i.e. a "demonstration explosion" over some unoccupied area of Ukraine? Is the response to get serious about forcing Ukraine to negotiate a peace, even if that means giving up territory?
I don't think reciprocal nuclear escalation is really on the table (nor would I want it to be), but what can the US/NATO do in that situation? Clearly there is a plan, I just wonder what it is, if it differs from what was "communicated to the highest levels of the Kremlin" by US, and what you all think it should be.
Personally, I wonder if in that situation, whether there really are any downside to escalating, not on the nuclear front, but on a "special forces boots in Russia decapitation strike" front. Or even a public, US government sanctioned/sponsored bounty on the heads of Putin et al.
obligatory substack article that first got me thinking about this: https://policytensor.substack.com/p/a-nuclear-zugzwang
Hard to take seriously an article that asserts:
and moreover, implies that the next best competing explanation is:
I don't just mention this because I find the current arguments for these allegations to be really poor, but because Russia right now is talking about the possibility of repairing the pipeline. The Anglosphere seems motivated to put forward the version that these pipelines are done for while Russia is claiming the fix can be made in as little as a matter of days. That doesn't support the theory that Russia is trying to signal a complete point of no return. In effect, all we have is mobilization and annexation, which Russia has already done before. This looks like an exit move. We have all the ammo we need to win the PR war. Russia had to institute a mobilization to fight little Ukraine, Russia captured much less than they had set out to, Russia's pipelines are gone, NATO expanded, and our official stated objective is simply to bleed Russia dry, which we can easily say we did. We humiliated them by just sending our old equipment over. I just don't see nukes happening because for us this is just a sliding scale of how hard we want to win, not an actual objective to restore Ukraine's borders.
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