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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022

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If you care about sound policy you need to use the same definitions on both sides of the equation to determine ratios.

If anyone in the not convicted of a crime side is allowed self-ID and only accused (or convicted?) can have that status revoked externally your numbers won’t work.

In the situation where trans women convicted of crimes can have that status revoked, you are automatically biasing your numbers away from criminality in that population.

If your true ratio is A:B and you change that to A-0:B-X the ratio automatically gets larger. Assuming of course X>0, but if it isn’t, it’s kind of a silly argument anyways.

That’s the math part. The politics part is there has been an argument from the beginning that if self-ID is the only requirement then there will be bad actors. We should not use it for this very reason.

Originally the the response was that no one would lie about this so we shouldn’t be concerned.

Now it feels like the response is of course those bad actors couldn’t really mean it, so we shouldn’t count bad people on our side, they’re on yours.

I have tried to make clear that whose "side" the bad people are on is not the issue I am concerned about. It is who actually commits crimes. In order to determine that, we have to look at their identity at the time they committed the crime.

If every gang member who is put in prison foreswears their gang in order to get benefits (as supposedly some inmates claimto be trans), would you infer that,because no one in prison is a gang member, gang members do not commit a disproportionate number of crimes, and hence the authorities shouldn't worry about those gang members downthe street? Of course not. Yet you seemto be advocating for the use of the same absurd methodology re trans criminals.

Nope, I’m saying that you have to remove liars from both sides.

It’s not absurd if your goal is accuracy.

Actual:Actual is reasonable.

Actual + Fakers:Actual + Fakers is reasonable.

Actual + Fakers:Actual

Is not.