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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 30, 2024

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I'm careful to say this since so many have said this before and been wrong that it's become a meme at this point, but this may be an indication of the breaking point between Trump and the traditional MAGA base. From his emergence in 2015 to roughly 2022, this was pretty much all he had. There were some moderates who voted for him in 2016 but turned away from him rather quickly. There were also traditional Republicans who opposed him up to the point that his nomination became inevitable and then backed him out of necessity, but in this case it was clear who was driving the car. Every once in a while he'd allow himself to be talked into doing something that was unpopular with his base but he had no qualms about throwing the responsible party under the bus when this became apparent (hence all the high-profile firings).

This seems different. Elon, Vivek, JD Vance, RFK, Joe Rogan, and the like aren't the MAGA base, and they don't represent the MAGA base. The pro Trump posters on The Motte don't represent the MAGA base. The left spent years trying to tar Trump as a racist, and while those smears weren't exactly fair, they tapped into an underlying truth that those charged with defending Trump couldn't admit: The MAGA base isn't exactly the most enlightened on racial issues. What I mean by this is that they don't bother trying to hide their opinions on things beyond the most basic kind of justifications. Here's a quote from the Pittsburgh NPR affiliate about a local community with a large Hatian population:

“I'm not racist,” she said. “But I came down Fallowfield [Avenue] a couple of months ago. There it was like on a Saturday or Sunday evening, real nice out. Everybody was on the streets walking. I probably counted 40 people walking from one end of Fallowfield to this end of Fallowfield. Not one white person.”

These people don't interact with Indians here on H-B1 visas for software companies; they interact with Indians who own convenience stores. they could care less about sophisticated arguments surrounding immigration because "they shouldn't be here". The only thing they offer as an argument besides dislike of foreigners is that they take American jobs. When someone like Vivek says that these H-1Bs are necessary because of "American mediocrity", the true MAGA folks don't nod in agreement. They blame Democrats; it's the liberal world where schools only teach Critical Race Theory and pronouns rather than The Three Rs, where coaches hand out participation trophies, where people don't smack their kids anymore. The solution to this problem isn't importing Asians or Asian culture but returning to traditional American culture. So if you're a Vivek Ramaswany or an Elon Musk and you can't find any Americans you want to employ then that's just too fucking bad. These jobs should be going to Americans, period.

I don't know much about Laura Loomer, but her criticisms are spot-on. The MAGA base didn't vote for Trump so they could hear horseshit excuses about how actually we really need to import people from India and give them high paying jobs. These are people who buy $70,000 trucks that get 15 mpg and then complain about the price of gas. They don't want to hear about how a multi-billionaire like Elon needs their tax dollars to subsidize his line of electric cars because he'll save us all from the global warming non-problem. The base, who has been there from the beginning, is right to question why a guy who seems hell bent on draining the swamp and dismantling the deep state is being unduly influenced by people who supported the opposition until recently.

There are two reasons I give this a better chance of causing a real split than previous controversies. First, immigration is a core issue. Trump has in the past taken positions contrary to the traditional conservative base on a number of issues, but he had the cover of not having taken positions on them. And he was able to split the baby on abortion. Here, he's made an unequivocal statement that runs contrary to his supporters' expectations on a core campaign issue. The second reason is that he's taking Elon Musk's side over that of his base. Elon gave Trump's PAC a lot of money and now expects, and is getting, influence in return. The fact that a non-American billionaire who supported Biden and Clinton can get that kind of influence just from writing a check, and use the influence to get Trump to waver on immigration, can't possibly sit well. And then there's the fact that Trump clearly came down on the side of Musk when he could have just stayed out of the whole thing. I could be wrong. This whole thing could blow over (H-1B visas are unlikely to become a major policy point), Trump could have an unrelated falling out with Musk, etc. But this seems to give greater odds of Trump's MAGA downfall than anything we've seen thus far.

It’s not just Trump’s core base that’s unhappy about mass immigration. No one likes suddenly having ten times more competition to get a job. The only reason most liberals were ok with immigration was that the people coming in weren’t the type that were going to compete with college educated urbanites. That’s why there’s so much vitriol about Indians: it isn’t really anything about Indians in particular. It’s just that this is the first major demographic of immigrants that can compete for white collar jobs. Judging from the discourse on this site, Silicon Valley people aren’t any happier about it than factory workers in the Midwest were. Sure they may keep quiet about it in public, but privately they are pretty upset.

According to the 2021 Canadian Census, over a quarter of Canada's population (pemanent residents and citizens) are first generation immigrants. Based on immigration trends, that number is likely at or approaching a third as of 2025. Mind you, this number does not include immigrants who are on "temporary" visas.

Utter insanity.