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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022

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Can you expand on what you mean by housing crash?

A wave of defaults and foreclosures? We don’t have the same ARM bomb exploding. John Q. Public has a fixed rate loan, today.

Residential mortgage investment vehicles losing value? Home prices losing value? Supply still does not need demand in many, many metro areas where people want to live. There’s left- and right-NIMBYism rampant in zoning laws and planning commissions across the country. Lenders are currently laying off 25% of their originations staff, because no one is refi-ing into a 7% fixed-rate, and the price of homes is starting to level off, but there might not be a dramatic fall in prices because of the housing shortage in desirable areas. A moderate drop in home prices combined with a significant decrease in the rate of home sales is a very reasonable possibility, as buyers who can’t pay cash hold on to their current homes.

And, unsolicited advice for anyone who didn’t put 20% down on their mortgage. If you think we’re at the top of a bubble, now is a good time to call your lender, schedule an appraisal, and if you still have it, see if you can drop your PMI, because you now hopefully have 20% equity in your property.