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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022

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...Were you under the impression that I assert that a «political von Neumann» is a guy who can do mathematics well and excels in politics on the basis of that sort of ability?

I didn't think so, but your next paragraph almost sounds like that. We are probably talking past each other to some degree here.

Even if so, do you see a lot of those in the official politics? Does, like, Blinken or DeSantis (admittedly, sharp folks) strike you as an equal of Napoleon Bonaparte, with his near-eidetic memory and incredible breadth of competence?

I don't know. Your theory perhaps says that Blinken does not look like Napoleon because the true Napoleon is hiding elsewhere. I think that a theory along the lines of "Blinken is a modern Napoleon, and in the current environment and/or presence of a larger number of competing Napoleons that's just as effective as a Napoleon gets" would also be sufficient to explain the observations.

I think we could make some other arguments about inevitabilities (about Heartland or about Old Europe or about the inevitable rise of East Asia or even about the promise of Africa), and also look at collapses of earlier civilizations. Those are mere narratives. The fact remains that American competition falls exactly to shooting themselves in the foot.

It's easier to shoot yourself in the foot if you are the one with the rusty rifle prone to go off at random.

Zero Covid is not a consequence of the country having issues with indefensible borders.

I think it's too early to tell if Zero Covid is actually a footbullet for China. I think it was actually you who argued for the Afghanistan "blunder" as being the sort of blunder that actually only serves to prove the might of those that commit it (perhaps comparable to the blunder that is Las Vegas in Scott's Moloch piece?). How do we know that Zero Covid is not this for China, whose chosen civilisational path is now based on keeping its own people in a tight line? They may have sacrificed some economical growth, but they surely gained a lot of experience in how to pull this sort of thing off, and more importantly established common knowledge that they can, and resistance will amount to nothing.

The European Union didn't ruin its energy policy because of being fractured more than the US of A is. It's clearly the difference in intelligence; the difference in being able to not make damning mistakes while your opponents mysteriously commit to them.

I for my part believe it's more of a principal-agent problem. The European elite, as I have experienced it, largely consists of American clients and opportunists and I'm very sure that few of the politicians currently ruining the EU's energy supply will personally suffer any adverse consequences for this. For the US to achieve this in the wake of WWII did not require any particularly advanced plays, just the extreme discrepancy in treasure that was naturally present between a bombed-out, partitioned continent and a united intact one with the aforementioned perfect production and logistics base.