site banner

Wellness Wednesday for January 1, 2025

The Wednesday Wellness threads are meant to encourage users to ask for and provide advice and motivation to improve their lives. It isn't intended as a 'containment thread' and any content which could go here could instead be posted in its own thread. You could post:

  • Requests for advice and / or encouragement. On basically any topic and for any scale of problem.

  • Updates to let us know how you are doing. This provides valuable feedback on past advice / encouragement and will hopefully make people feel a little more motivated to follow through. If you want to be reminded to post your update, see the post titled 'update reminders', below.

  • Advice. This can be in response to a request for advice or just something that you think could be generally useful for many people here.

  • Encouragement. Probably best directed at specific users, but if you feel like just encouraging people in general I don't think anyone is going to object. I don't think I really need to say this, but just to be clear; encouragement should have a generally positive tone and not shame people (if people feel that shame might be an effective tool for motivating people, please discuss this so we can form a group consensus on how to use it rather than just trying it).

1
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Long-time Motte / ACX / rat-adjacent lurker here. I am hoping to get some input from some of the many pro-family posters on the Motte to help me get out an increasingly deep rut I've found myself stuck in.

The general thrust of my thoughts is that I assign a high probability to my access to status and resources becoming much worse in the near future. I've thought about what this means for my previously held desire to enter a relationship and form a family and have come to some undesirable conclusions.

The most salient information about me:

  • Mid twenties, lower-middle class background
  • Midwit remote tech worker, upper-mid 6 figure net worth

Why I believe that the future is quite grim:

  • The current state of AI, while unlikely to cause 30%+ structural employment or ASI FOOM imo, seems likely to commoditize the majority of intellectual labor within one or two decades
  • For the subset of middle tier work where AI may not be capable of performing economically, unrestricted immigration policies and flight from the intellectual jobs seems likely to crush the income and working conditions of the remaining jobs
  • This means that the only real paths to accessing resources and status are going to be to either be sufficiently Elite Human Capital so as to be granted access to the moneyed class, or be born into money i.e the west economically becomes South Korea
  • As I'm not intelligent enough to win my way into increasingly narrow paths into the elite nor born into the upper class it then seems likely that my personal access to status and resources is going to plummet

It's well litigated on the Motte why South Korean TFR is rock bottom, but given this is how I model the future of the western world to look like as well, I also find myself struggling to justify forming a family under these conditions. Below are some scattered thoughts.

  • While it's often claimed that singledom is a luxury good, I think it's quite likely that a relationship and family would be a net negative on my resources
  • As I currently spend underneath the poverty line, I can probably eke out a low-status low-resource lifestyle for myself if single, even in most of the non-apocalyptic worst case scenarios
  • I think this probably goes out of the window with a family, any potential partner of mine would either have less resources than me and rely on me to provide, or be roughly in my economic bracket and would desire a much higher standing of living, even before the fairly significant expenses of childrearing
  • This is not a huge problem in a world where I can obtain above average resources through my labor, but is very stressful to contemplate when it's unlikely I'll accrue the neccessary capital to support an entire family
  • Attempting to do so has the real risk of compromising my own ability to maintain the neccessary capital to stay alive, which makes me anxious about whether such a huge sacrifice is worth it

  • Similarly to South Korea I expect the lives of children to become much worse than now, a striver rat race for largely zero-sum access to status and resources that I'd be largely powerless to protect my children from
  • The alternative is a low-status low-resource life, and from my upbringing I'm well aware of how fundamentally awful a low-status low-resource existence can be
  • While I am personally non-conformist enough to tolerate such a lifestyle in the event labor becomes devalued, I'm not sure I can accept the repugnant conclusion that it's better for my children to live barely tolerable lives of suffering rather than to not exist at all

To be clear, I would prefer not to hold these views - I want to be someone that is optimistic for the future and that is capable of providing for a happy family, but this seems increasingly out of reach for me based on how the world is trending.

TLDR: please try to convince this highly neurotic autist that either

a) current middle-class access to status and resources is unlikely to diminish within my lifetime.

b) a committed relationship and family formation is still worth pursuing even with severely diminished access to status and resources.

It's good you're at least thinking about whether you want marriage and family in your mid twenties, rather than trying to ignore and put off the question as sometimes happens.

Midwit remote tech worker, upper-mid 6 figure net worth

Materially, you are better off than the vast majority of people who have ever lived. Maybe the next generation will do worse, maybe not, but unless something really apocalyptic happens, they will still be materially well off by historical standards. Even if you have to retrain into a more working class job, that's not the end of the world, or even your world. If you have a good and reasonable wife, she will work with you on whatever ends up happening. My father was a not particularly successful night baker and then cook, despite having a college degree from the 70s; these things happen. He still didn't have a bad life, and got to indulge his intellectual preferences in his books clubs and with his family.

I don't necessarily practice what I preach, but you and your (potential) family aren't simply pawns in the games of elites, but also actors who are subtly pushing civilization in some direction, to be determined by your own values. Shall we let the machines do all the email jobs, and pay other people to walk each others' dogs and raise each other's children? That seems like kind of a silly economy, but I'm sure I have ancestors who were household servants, and I guess if that's what my grandkids are doing, it's not ideal, but basically acceptable. Shall we enlist in the Butlerian Jihad? I'd rather not (and wouldn't be able to do much of the work), but it's probably better than just kind of giving up. Shall we join a cult in Alaska? Maybe! I had some friends who were doing something like that, and they formed this beautiful a cappella choir that was touring the country and some other countries, singing everywhere. Maybe it's worth joining a cult to wander around creating random acts of choral music! Yesterday, I visited Saint Anthony's Monastery in Florence, Arizona. They have 50 monks from all over the world, making an unusually beautiful monastery in the middle of the Sonoran Desert. They planted a new olive orchard, and built a small aviary. They won't have children, but it's so interesting that they're doing that, and the grounds are so beautiful! They have these Byzantine style mosaic icons with quarter inch glass tesserae. I want to be able to do that! They're so beautiful, and will continue to be beautiful for perhaps hundreds of years. Perhaps I should plant grape vines this spring, and a new apricot tree.

These are half baked thoughts, which I don't have energy to develop further just now. Basically, living a certain kind of constrained lower middle class knowledge worker lifestyle is probably just a tiny blip, sure, but you and your potential family can outlive it, and find other interesting and potentially beautiful things to do, even with a rather dull and low status day job.

The new SSC post looks like something you would be interested in, even if it doesn't address family formation directly.

I did read it, but didn't find it too interesting. Speculating about space colonisation post-singularity is so far out of society's current frame of reference it feels largely like navel gazing. I find myself more concerned with the more realistic short-term outcomes that might occur.