Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
- 23
- 2
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I'm not sure if we've talked about this lately, but do we have any thoughts on what should be done with the Russia-Ukraine war at this point? Seems like as good a time as any to consider grand strategy, with Trump soon to take office in the US.
It's a little surprising that it's still going. It seems pretty clear to me at this point that Russia / Putin has no intention of stopping anytime soon. The sanctions regime that has been put in place seems to have caused them to return to self-sufficiency as much as it has hurt them. I'm doubtful that further attempts to sanction them harder will have any greater effect. The Ukrainians seem to have had impressive determination, especially during the first few months, but they don't seem to have the practical ability to eject the Russian troops, even with extremely generous donations of Western arms. I'm doubtful that's possible at all without large-scale Western intervention. There's also the possibility of allowing them to make more deep strikes into Russia with longer-ranged weapons, but I'm doubtful that anything along those lines can hit hard enough to either seriously disrupt their logistics or their will to fight, at least not without, or maybe even with, so many high-end western arms that it's basically obvious it's the US striking them directly, with all of the potential consequences that could entail.
From the perspective of an American, it's felt for a while like maybe it's time to wind down this conflict, or at least our involvement in it, as far as providing arms and assistance. Are we really accomplishing anything but getting more Ukrainians killed to little effect? And okay yeah, Russia is not our friend, but it's probably only to the United States' benefit to push them so far.
Does anyone have any different opinions? Does anyone see any realistic potential of forcing Russia back without a large-scale escalation that I'm doubtful Americans will accept? The European powers may be more determined to push Russia back, but do they have much practical ability without the US?
As a pro-ukrainian european I‘ve warmed to a freezing of the conflict on something like the trump plan:
Zelensky should just accept trump's compromise and when putin likely rejects, enjoy increased american support. If putin accepts, the plan is to wait until he dies. It‘s unlikely he can mobilize his population and economy much further if there is no war on, so given some western support, ukraine can likely maintain enough strength not to be eaten bit by bit on the short timescale of putin‘s remaining life. Putin‘s also very unlikely to try anything else against nato if there‘s unfinished business/ a large ukrainian army waiting for an opportunity to reclaim their land behind a ceasefire line.
There's a bit of a revolving door, though, from Chechnya to Syria to Ukraine. Possibly gearing up for Libya next? If Putin needs a war to accomplish his domestic goals, he's shown he can generate one.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link