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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   3601 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 30, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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If our goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is it better to kill 40 million median Americans or 40 million median Ugandians?

On one hand, one American emits 15x more greenhouse gases than one Ugandan. On the other hand, Ugandan TFR is 2x the replacement ratio, so their great-great-grandchildren will emit more than those of the Americans even without taking into account Ugandan economic growth and American decarbonization plans.

When people say that utilitarians don't consider the second-order consequences of their actions, you know that's an outsider criticism, not a philosophical requirement, right?

More seriously: Ugandan TFR is 2x replacement right now, but a generation ago it was 3x replacement. Angola is still at 2.5x replacement, but they peaked at 3.5x two generations ago and are still falling. Their demographic transitions seem to be well underway already, so "TFR=constant" isn't even a good approximation right now, much less something you can extrapolate out for four more generations to come.

The 2022 UN World Population Prospects just came out. Under the medium fertility variant, the population of Uganda is projected to more than triple by the year 2100. The U.S. population is expected to increase by just 15%. More than 100% of the U.S. increase will be due to immigration.

While African fertility has been decreasing, the decrease has been much slower than other countries such as India and Iran where the TFR has come down rapidly. The UN projects that Ugandan TFR will fall to replacement (2.1) by the year 2071.

Just providing some context, not disputing the overall thrust of your comment.

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