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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32050 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 31, 2022

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even the median twitter user with 50k followers

Is someone really going to impersonate @joespizzastamfordct? Is that enough for joe to pay 100/month? And a lot of accounts with 10k+ followers are people like crypto or music 'influencers', or just guys who like shitposting. There's no way >20% of twitter accounts with 10k+ followers will buy the blue checkmark - which means that it'll not be effective in reducing spam.

Is someone really going to impersonate @joespizzastamfordct? Is that enough for joe to pay 100/month?

It's $8/month. And the answer is yes, that's pocket change for @marietherealtor - she regularly spends 10x that on things like donuts + paper fliers + balloons for an open house. It's quite cheap if you put it into the category of marketing/reputation spend.

Assuming the average person reading replies scrolls down a full screen, you need between 3 and 7 people who replied to ElonMusk/ye/etc to be verified and spam is pushed down.

But hey, probably you have a better grasp on stopping scams than Elon Musk (early Paypal) and David Sacks (early Paypal). At least one person in this conversation is also experienced in stopping organized crime from doing scams online (albeit not at the same scale) - is that person you?

Here's an example of how 8/mo verified accounts won't stop spam replies to people like Musk: https://twitter.com/ArmisteadMaupin/status/1589022522175111170 this is currently the top reply to a 6h old elon musk tweet. It's a sexy girl spam link (link to archive, nsfw), and is posted by a hacked verified account. Note that this is an account that was verified before musk's takeover (can they just pay someone to watch elon and vitalik's tweets?). Verified accounts currently appear to sell for $1.5k on some website I didn't look too hard at. So ... in that sense, $8 is clearly a win for spammers! (the scammer probably pays less than the $1.5k upfront per account, if they even do at all vs hacking, so who knows how hard it is to actually get an account ofc).

If you think there's some silver bullet to 100% stop scams, and Musk's failure to find it means the effort is worthless, then you simply don't understand the problem.

The thing about fraud/scams is that the supply curve slopes downwards.

You also didn't even read what Musk wrote about $8/verified account, namely that the verification process still happens. It's not simply "send $8 worth of shitcoins for a bluecheck".

So ... in that sense, $8 is clearly a win for spammers! (the scammer probably pays less than the $1.5k upfront per account, if they even do at all vs hacking, so who knows how hard it is to actually get an account ofc).

So let me illustrate how you've clearly not thought this through. Here's a simple way Musk can use the $8 payment process to verify the account in a manner that is hard for hackers to exploit directly, and also incentivizes them to bother someone else: no CC, you pay via bank transfer authorized by Plaid.

Now in order to get a verified twitter, a scammer also needs to either a) hack plaid b) hack BofA/Chase/etc. In both cases, if successful, there are far more lucrative things the hacker can do with the hack than get a checkmark - transfer money directly from the victim, buy an XBox using Afterpay/Klarna/Affirm (set up auto repayment via bank transfer with plaid) then sell it on eBay, that kind of thing.

Here's a simple way Musk can use the $8 payment process to verify the account in a manner that is hard for hackers to exploit directly, and also incentivizes them to bother someone else: no CC, you pay via bank transfer authorized by Plaid.

I highly, highly doubt that. Musk and twitter seem to be approaching this as a generic way to make money, slapped on top of Twitter Blue, and any friction there will significantly hurt revenue. I'll follow it, and if he does, that'd be my mistake. But I'm pretty sure you'll be able to pay for blue with a credit card.

Even then though, a cracked bank account (via cracking.com) seems to be around $100, which is still much cheaper than $1500, so ... it's not helping! (note: prices seem to vary a lot - some sell verification for $60/$150, others sell for $800-$1500, maybe the former is scamming i dunno)

Even then though, a cracked bank account (via cracking.com) seems to be around $100, which is still much cheaper than $1500, so ..

These aren't cracked. They are empty accounts opened up in the identity of nonexistent or defunct people, typically with negligible history. (If you want an account with a few transactions, that's more expensive.) Best case, you're now verified for spamming as Herman Lopez, a 90 year old guy in Florida currently in assisted living.

(Folks in assisted living are generally the best fake identities; not on a "he's dead" list but also unlikely to notice.)

Anyway, you don't seem to disagree that the cost of spamming has gone up.

I'm sorry but this just reads like you're just trusting musk or something? I don't have anything for or against musk, but these arguments don't really make sense.

These aren't cracked

True, my typo

Best case, you're now verified for spamming as Herman Lopez, a 90 year old guy in Florida currently in assisted living

That is fine, it's just as good as the currently stolen verified accounts - journos, authors, random musicians, none of whose names are distinguishable from 90yo floridians. If we look at the above example of using verified accounts to spam - they just want the blue checkmark next to a random name. I'm not entirely sure why, honestly, who clicks a 'i will trade nudes with you. i am a hot 18 year old' posts because they're posted by a author bluecheck named 'Armistead Maupin'? If you click the post, the spam shows up as a top reply despite having fewer likes, comments than the replies beneath it. Maybe it's the verified that's boosting it - which would be incredibly ironic given this entire argument - but even then there are verified posts 10 replies down with more likes, comments. This is how people are using verified accounts to spam. (Also, you're assuming they'd disable 8/mo blue check accounts' ability to rename. I'm not sure they would do that - maybe they do not currently, see the recent examples of famous people changing name and pfp to 'elon musk' (many now [are]https://twitter.com/zoo_bear/status/1588834121308307456) apparently suspended, but that happens to spam accounts anyway so lol), but that is orthogonal to the utility of paying 8/mo for them. Almost all of the security improvements you're positing will either not actually happen, or come from changes that could be easily made without adding paid bluechecks!)

Anyway, you don't seem to disagree that the cost of spamming has gone up.

I disagree that the appreciable cost of spamming will be increased in by the blue checkmark change. Non-verified account spamming, which is afaict the dominant kind, won't be affected at all. (unless they implement your 'blue checkmark replies get massive priority boosts over non bluecheck replies' theory - which would only hurt it a bit - a 20% or 50% boost or something would not make a difference here, - they probably will not do that, even if they did it would seriously harm the twitter product experience) Spamming with verified accounts would become, probably, easier, or maybe stay the same.

edit: just saw here they will be removing bluechecks on name changes. Also says "will suspend accounts that impersonate without clearly specifying parody", which i assume refers to all accounts? That kinda sucks tbh, and is not very free speech.

I'm not "trusting" musk. I'm saying that from my perspective as a professional in the field, the things he has said he plans to do - when given as executive direction to a competent security team - can result in a bunch of very clear changes that have clear mechanisms that might reduce or at least bury spam.

As in, if I were evaluating projects for my team to do from the perspective of "can they work", these would get onto the roadmap.

Also, you're assuming they'd disable 8/mo blue check accounts' ability to rename. I'm not sure they would do that

Yes, I'm evaluating the projects he's proposing from the perspective that details which don't fit into a tweet will be thought through by competent teams of professionals, rather than from the perspective of an Elon hater who assumes it won't work. (Just like electric cars, rocket ships, and sending payments on the internet without getting destroyed by fraudsters won't work.)

Almost all of the security improvements you're positing will either not actually happen, or come from changes that could be easily made without adding paid bluechecks!)

Feel free to specify a mechanism for verifying people at scale without charging.

I don't have anything for or against musk,

...

Also says "will suspend accounts that impersonate without clearly specifying parody", which i assume refers to all accounts? That kinda sucks tbh, and is not very free speech.

Lol, the first statement very much seems plausible.

https://twitter.com/HeheWaitWhut/status/1590489781502611458 https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/11/09/verified-accounts-ben-shapiro/

I mean, it's incredibly funny and dramapilled, but it doesn't really accomplish the 'reduced spam' and 'reducing misinformation' goals i think

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