By July Ukraine’s pre-war Army was effectively defeated
and
Ukrainian soldiers, supplemented by western mercenaries, have been trained in the UK and Poland and formed into fresh units. The ability to field high quality formations , trained, equipped, and largely commanded by NATO
So the pre-war Army defeated and there are fresh units trained in the past 6-8 months that supplanted the pre-war army? That is not how armies work, The pre-war army is still the Ukrainian Army.
I do see the perspective that the maneuver defense in the Kherson region has prevented large scale encirclement and reduction of Russian Ground Forces in Kherson, it seems to be leading to the eventual RGF withdrawal west of the Dnieper into a sustained linear defense along a significant piece of hydrology, as opposed to a transition to the offensive.
Rasputitsa will slow a Ukrainian offensive, and perhaps devolve the southern theater into an urban war in Kherson, but it remains to be seen how the Russians will turn any slowing in Ukrainian tempo into an advantage, as the Ukrainians will be focused on consolidating gains in territory that was essentially Ukrainian-controlled up until Feb 2022.
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Notes -
These two comments don't seem to square:
and
So the pre-war Army defeated and there are fresh units trained in the past 6-8 months that supplanted the pre-war army? That is not how armies work, The pre-war army is still the Ukrainian Army.
I do see the perspective that the maneuver defense in the Kherson region has prevented large scale encirclement and reduction of Russian Ground Forces in Kherson, it seems to be leading to the eventual RGF withdrawal west of the Dnieper into a sustained linear defense along a significant piece of hydrology, as opposed to a transition to the offensive.
Rasputitsa will slow a Ukrainian offensive, and perhaps devolve the southern theater into an urban war in Kherson, but it remains to be seen how the Russians will turn any slowing in Ukrainian tempo into an advantage, as the Ukrainians will be focused on consolidating gains in territory that was essentially Ukrainian-controlled up until Feb 2022.
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