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Notes -
So Trump had a fun day on the golf course.
While golfing yesterday, he got the news that Colombia will not be accepting two jets full of repatriated criminals. So he goes on TruthSocial and posts that, immediately, Colombia will get slapped with 25% tariffs, as well as visa revocations for ruling party members.
This causes an immediate reaction from Petro, the unpopular socialist leader of Colombia, who offers to fly convicts back to Colombia in his Presidential jet.
There is much celebration and dunking from Trump supporters.
Not so fast. It turns out Petro might have been drunk, because he later goes on to post this insane rant on Twitter and then threatens the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs.
Now the Democrats are celebrating (because obviously it's good to hurt Trump even if it's bad for America). We are driving Colombians into the arms of China! Who will work our coffee fields? That kind of stuff.
The evening goes on. Trump finishes golfing. Petro sobers up and probably gets some, um, interesting phone calls from prominent Colombians who will have to pull their daughters from American finishing schools. Petro apparently caves, as the White House posts this, announcing that Colombia will accept unlimited flights. No tariffs for now, but the visa restrictions remain in force until Colombia follows through.
It's hard not to see this as a massive win for Trump and for America as a whole. He accomplished more in a few minutes, while golfing, than a normal administration would in weeks. Sometimes you can just do stuff.
MSN reported it like this: Donald Trump starts massive diplomatic crisis with Colombia while playing round of golf.
Was there ever any non-fake disagreement between Colombia and the US here?
Per centrist Twitter, deportation flights to Colombia had been running smoothly in civilian planes, Trump switched to using military planes without asking permission, Colombia turned the planes round due to lack of permission, Trump asked for permission (impolitely), Trump got permission, and everything will continue in an orderly way, apart for both sides spending the length of a round of golf trolling each other on social media.
Whether this is a win for America depends on whether you think being gratuitously boorish when you can get away with it is good diplomacy (because it makes you look tough and dangerous) or bad diplomacy (because it makes you look like a boor). This is a point of genuine partisan disagreement in 21st century America.
Fake disagreements are Trump's go-to for domestic performances. He likes to present himself as a tough, ruthless dealmaker, but like much of Trump's image that is mostly kayfaybe. E.g. during his first term he renegotiated NAFTA, supposedly to get a better deal for the US. This produced the USMCA, a trade agreement that looked an awful lot like NAFTA with some minor tweaks.
This might be a 'win' for Trump domestically insofar as he gets to say he won a pissing match and a certain kind of voter eats that up, but as far as Trump being an effective president this seems like further vindication of the view that he is all hat and no cattle.
As somebody who is solidly on team "don't be a dick", the position is more substantial than trying to avoid looking boorish. It's the view that the US derives a great deal of its power/influence from its network of allies, and gratuitously alienating friendly nations for the sake of tough guy posturing degrades US power by making them less likely to cooperate in the future. (And more generally that shakedown diplomacy is extremely short-sighted and signals that you're an untrustworthy partner).
The view, expressed elsewhere in this thread (not by you), that the naysayers are simply being prissy is a remarkable failure to model the thought processes of people who disagree. We may, of course, be wrong, but the core complaint is not that Trump is being uncouth. The US has neither the interest nor the ability to force everyone to fall in line, so cashing in goodwill in order to entertain domestic audiences is hurting America for minimal benefit.
Strong agree. I think the actual cost to US-Colombian relations is small because Colombian elites were able to participate in the kayfabe - my guess is that Petro gained rather than lost in his domestic politics as a result.
If there is a cost, it is that it makes it harder for the rest of the world to take Trump seriously when he isn't running kayfabe, which he mostly shouldn't be.
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