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Notes -
American midterm election predictions?
Does anyone wish to use this space to register predictions for outcomes in tomorrow's American midterm elections?
Personally, I take a kind of efficient markets approach to this stuff, so I'll defer to the betting consensus. But if you want your time-stamped judgment registered as part of the official Motte record, here's your chance!
Mods - please feel free to remove if you don't think this is a good fit for the space.
House: GOP win. As a matter of policy for the next two years, I don't really think the precise number of seats will matter much. Despite Dem's thin margin right now, I don't recall any crucial vote being held up by a handful of Congressmen the House over the last two years. Of course, having a larger buffer may make keeping the House easier in 2024 due to incumbent advantages, but policy-wise I expect all that matters is which party wins it and not by how much.
Senate: 70% 51 GOP, 30% Dem keep with 50-50 seats. I laugh at prediction markets that bet on 53, 54, or even more GOP seats. I mean yes, it's possible, but the realm of possible also includes 48 or 49 GOP seats. Senate control will matter tremendously for confirmations. If a SCOTUS justice dies or somehow retires before 2024, I expect a GOP Senate to refuse a hearing, unless Biden appointed a truly middle-of-the-road swing vote justice, which I expect he would not do, given he has shown very little inclination to moderation so far into his presidency. Appellate court appointees will probably get hearings, but I expect Biden would be forced to nominate center-left rather than left judges to these posts to ensure timely confirmation.
Governorship and state houses: Net gain for GOP. Besides favorable national environment, the GOP tended to invest more in state and local races. I don't have enough insight to predict how much the gain is or specifically where.
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