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Notes -
My personal copium is that Russia is focused on debilitating Ukraine’s economy, then killing their troops at a higher rate than they kill Russian troops, while implementing cheap drones in combat. This is the most cost effective way to win the war. Russia has to pay for a few hundred thousand troops next door, while NATO has to pay for all of Ukraine’s military plus some significant part of twenty million citizens still in Ukraine. Russia gets to knock the electricity in Kyiv and elsewhere to prevent a semblance of a modern economy, and harass in other costly ways. For every dollar Russia spends, NATO will have to pay 10 to 30. The limiting factor of Ukraine is the economy and men. In this sense it’s in Russia’s interests to make Ukraine disperse their soldiers across the whole territory.
A withdrawal from Kherson would have the exact opposite effect, as falling back behind the natural boundary of the Dnieper will effectively shorten the front and enable both sides to redistribute any forces West of the Zaporizhzhia-Melitopol axis.
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