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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   18882 thread views

USA Election Day 2022 Megathread

Tuesday November 8, 2022 is Election Day in the United States of America. In addition to Congressional "midterms" at the federal level, many state governors and other more local offices are up for grabs. Given how things shook out over Election Day 2020, things could get a little crazy.

...or, perhaps, not! But here's the Megathread for if they do. Talk about your local concerns, your national predictions, your suspicions re: election fraud and interference, how you plan to vote, anything election related is welcome here. Culture War thread rules apply, with the addition of Small-Scale Questions and election-related "Bare Links" allowed in this thread only (unfortunately, there will not be a subthread repository due to current technical limitations).

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I don't pretend to understand the electoral details, but PredictIt prices for Republicans taking the senate seem to have dipped from 82¢ to 66¢ in the past three hours. (See the 24h tab.) So the early results are not as red as expected, or maybe bettors are reacting to Maricopa county situation.

EDIT: Down to 38¢ as of 11:13 EST. Obviously still a fluid situation, but it's looking like the DNC's strategy of drumming on abortion and calling their enemies semi-fascists basically worked.

This seems to be the biggest news from early voting, besides Florida seeing an overwhelming GOP victory.

Betting market odds for Democrat control of the Senate went from roughly 20% to roughly 40% in a few hours. The surge seems to have paused or plateaued, and the GOP is still favored to win control of the Senate, but it's definitely worth paying attention to. Tonight promises to be a nail-biter.

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