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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   18861 thread views

USA Election Day 2022 Megathread

Tuesday November 8, 2022 is Election Day in the United States of America. In addition to Congressional "midterms" at the federal level, many state governors and other more local offices are up for grabs. Given how things shook out over Election Day 2020, things could get a little crazy.

...or, perhaps, not! But here's the Megathread for if they do. Talk about your local concerns, your national predictions, your suspicions re: election fraud and interference, how you plan to vote, anything election related is welcome here. Culture War thread rules apply, with the addition of Small-Scale Questions and election-related "Bare Links" allowed in this thread only (unfortunately, there will not be a subthread repository due to current technical limitations).

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The vibe I'm getting is that the red wave isn't happening. The republicans might not even get the senate. I'm watching /r/conservative and they are not happy with Trump, that sub has definitely taken a hard turn towards Desantis so that makes me optimistic that he can win the primary for 2024.

Yesterday I estimated 70% GOP 51 Senate and 30% 50-50 Dem keep. Looks like even that was an overestimate for GOP performance, even though I had been very skeptical of the wilder 53+ GOP Senate projections. If Dems actually pick up a Senate seat, the GOP will be left only with copium that perhaps the Senate loss will enable DeSantis to prevail over Trump in the 2024 primary and go on to produce a true red wave (especially if the economy will be stuck in a recession at that point).

I wonder if ten years from now the GOP will look back and view Trump's 2016 win was a pyrrhic victory, one that ultimately resulted in a decade+ of Dems in power. So far Trump's SCOTUS appointments still make it seem like a net win for conservatives, but that calculus likely changes if Trump wins 2024 GOP nomination and loses in the general, with at best a 5-4 conservative majority, if not 5-4 liberal one, by 2028.

i for one hope to see some Desantis vs Trump debates, i can only imagine them being entertaining.

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