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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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There's been a fair amount of discussion of America's military aid to Ukraine, and no few condemnations of those of us who have opposed that aid. I am informed, in fact, that this forum is overrun with Russian Propaganda, such that some no longer wish to participate. This is lamentable if true, so I thought it might help to prompt some elaboration of the pro-Ukraine case.

People who support aid to Ukraine, in whatever form, suppose that you personally are given complete control over the US government, and can set policy however you wish. What would your answers be to the following questions?

  • How much aid would you provide? Weapons? Money? No-Fly Zone? Air support? Troops on the ground? Nuclear umbrella? Something else?

  • What is the end-state your policy is aiming for? A ceasefire? Deter subsequent Russian invasion? Restoration of Ukraine's original borders? The Russian army destroyed? Putin deposed? Russia broken up? Something else?

  • Is there an end-state or a potential event in the war that you think would falsify your understanding of the war, and convince you that providing aid was a bad idea? Another way of putting it is, do you think your views on the Ukraine war are falsifiable, and if so, what evidence would be sufficient for you to consider it falsified?

...Reading comments from those arguing for Ukraine, I've noted from the start that many of the arguments presented in favor of aid appear to be mutually-exclusive. In this most recent discussion, I've seen some people arguing that we should be sending in US or NATO troops, and other people arguing that of course no US or NATO troops are needed and that sending them would be obviously crazy. This is a natural consequence of many people arguing many points of view in one forum, but it seems helpful for people to lay out their own views when possible; often, these positions are just stated as though they should be obviously true.

  • I think the Biden level of support was roughly correct. Our military-industrial base couldn't actually handle a lot more without severely depleting the reserves too much, and the fears of over-escalating via too many long-range missiles were also valid fears. Sending boots on the ground is political suicide, not necessary, not very feasible, and a bad idea besides for direct escalation reasons.
  • End goal was ideally a permanent peace, but not a restoration of original borders, as that was likely off the table in practical terms seeing as a stalemate being the best military case has been near-obvious for at least a year if not longer. I think I would have liked to see some kind of internationally administered true referendum, a binding one, in the occupied areas as to what they would like their status to be. Maybe a separate one for Crimea and one or two in the Donbas + similar areas. An acceptable non-ideal endpoint would be some kind of cease fire with deterrence in some form, specifics I really dunno. Don't care about specifically punishing Putin or anything. We want to, IN GENERAL, send the message that blatant invasions in Europe for pure conquest purposes are not OK, that's the only message I really care to send. Proportional response, right?
  • I don't think I fully understand this question. Can you elaborate? Are you asking about if aid was "too much"? I think it was the obvious response to send the above message. Now, part of the issue was that 2014 was handled poorly by almost everyone, but outright invasion I think literally cannot be accepted. Or are you asking if there's some event that would convince me that Ukraine was the "bad guy" or a "worse guy" all along?

Part of this is that I feel very strongly that NATO is and would still have remained (and still WILL remain) a fundamentally defensive alliance. I guess loosely related to your question #3 is that I have mixed feelings about the NATO expansion. Clearly, a demand is there for smaller states worried about invasion from Russia - something that even in post-Soviet times they are literally and explicitly guilty of (Georgia 2008 absolutely must be mentioned). I don't know if NATO was really the best tool, but the need was there. So I guess I could say that concrete signs that NATO would consider an offensive, counter-Russia action would be notable, but they do not in reality exist. For example, strong evidence in favor of this is how NATO has promised and still does not station nuclear weapons in any former Warsaw Pact nations. This idea that Russia was somehow 'goaded' into attacking I view as almost explicit Russian propaganda - at least, explicitly spread, I don't think it's intrinsically faulty, though of course it is I believe factually false.

For example, large military exercises near Russia's borders are seen as provocative, and of course they might send a political/diplomatic message, but in no conceivable scenario are they actually threats. The idea behind military exercises being threats is that they can sometimes mask real invasions. Russia, obviously, just used this excuse for its own attack. But the structure of NATO, and the nature of the alliance and its countries (democracies) almost literally prevents NATO from ever declaring a surprise invasion or offensive action. Similarly, missile defense systems being deployed in Poland, etc. are I think a little more understandable, but again, NATO is almost never going to initiate shit, much less a nuclear initiation, so again this isn't a legitimate reason to be afraid of NATO. The only actual NATO offensive action was Yugoslavia, and even that was telegraphed far in advance, was explicitly humanitarian in an already-war situation, so I fail to see how it would ever serve as a template for Russia to be worried.

For example, large military exercises near Russia's borders are seen as provocative, and of course they might send a political/diplomatic message, but in no conceivable scenario are they actually threats.

If you establish military alliances with countries along the borders of a rival, ship your soldiers there, and "send messages" by marching them around, then that rival is going to interpret your actions in a threatening light. Expecting otherwise is flatly ludicrous and wildly out of touch. NATO is America and its lackeys, and America does whatever it wants. America blew up Iraq just because it felt like it, and then just went "oops lol" and shrugged when it turned out that the entire casus belli was completely made up.