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This is a very common failure to think on the margin; it most typically shows up when people are discussing drug prohibition. Yes, we all agree that prohibiting drugs/CP/murder is not going to actually eliminate it. Some people are still going to find a way to get drugs/CP or to murder other people. These are known as "high-value users". There are some people who will go to extreme measures to get that next hit, get that next picture, or to kill that one bastard. They may do so even if we make the (potential) costs high. (Note that there are some differences in effect of increasing direct costs vs potential costs, though legal sanctions can affect both.)
You may personally be a high-value CP user. We have high-value drug users in these threads. I don't know that we've had high-value murderers in these threads, but they do exist. We may not be successful in dissuading you from pursuing what you value so highly. We may or may not catch you and actually impose the potential costs. The societal value of making such laws does not hinge on that. This has been known for centuries.
Setting aside the other possible justifications for punishing you, specifically, there is societal value in increasing the costs for others, who might have a somewhat lower-value on the behavior than you do, perhaps to the point that they simply choose not to engage in the behavior. This comes in the form of people thinking, "Yeah, I kinda like kids, but do I really want to go to all the trouble of figuring out these VPNs, cryptocurrencies, etc., and then still run the risk of getting caught? Probably not," or, "Yeah, I kinda like drugs, but do I really want to go to all the trouble to deal with the criminal culture, pay high prices, and still run the risk of getting caught or getting an adulterated product that may kill me? I guess I'll just drink some whisky," or, "Yeah, I super super hate this guy, and if anyone ought to get killed, it's him, but do I really want to go through the trouble of trying to plan out how to do it without getting trivially caught, yet still run the risk of something going wrong and ending up behind bars for the rest of my life? Probably not."
Some people will ask themselves those questions and answer, "Yes, absolutely," instead of, "Probably not." But in the meantime, we'll have a lot less CP, a lot less drug usage, and a lot less murder. For the few of you who go ahead and do it, we can figure out what mix of the other justifications for punishment will be most beneficial to you and society.
Okay but I wasn't asking about CP prohibitions (which I'm mostly against for other reasons, but I recognize your argument). Isn't the availability of fictional sexualized content of children like lolicon one of the methods you speak of to increase costs of CP consumption (as it's less justifiable and thus more costly to pursue it at risk if there's a semi-decent substitute with far less risk attached)?
My point is that if you pursue lolicon as content to be eliminated like you pursue CP, then you completely eliminate that benefit to whatever degree you pursue it (same for legal but sexualized content of actual children, but I understand there are different arguments involved there), which doesn't make much sense given that they're fictional characters with zero genuine need for emotional/physical/etc. protection in any case.
That is, even the diehard anti-CP advocate has little reason to attack it.
Almost all CP is distributed freely so you would almost never have to figure this out unless you want really new/rare/etc. stuff. I just thought I'd make a note of that.
There's no economic argument for how it would increase the cost of CP consumption. It simply lessens the cost of something that some might consider a substitute.
In any event, another thing about drug prohibition is that science/society has basically no clue what actually causes the transition to being an addict (which usually comes with many harms, to oneself and others). Obviously, we know that if you never try a drug, you don't become an addict. Some portion of folks who try don't become addicted, but some portion does (this can happen via an intermediate, legal drug, too, like prescription opioids). Best as we can tell, it's pretty much a Poisson process. That means that it scales with the number of people who start using. Also, once a person transitions to being an addict, it seems that we have basically no clue how to rehabilitate them. (See Scott's old old old post about how abysmal rehab programs are.) There is a very reasonable end conclusion that we should simply reduce the number of initial users. It just seems implausible that we could flood the market with cheap, legal opioids and somehow not cause some folks to get addicted.
Similarly, lots of folks find it pretty implausible that we can flood the market with cheap fake child porn and not cause some number of people, who wouldn't have ever even started wanking down that path, to end up abusing kids.
IF we could just isolate people who were already going to consume CP and, in a targeted fashion, with no spillover effects, provide fake CP as a substitute, then sure, that'd be a plausible thing to try. That would be the like, "Give people methadone at rehab," kind of solution, not the, "Give out prescription opioids like candy to the masses," kind of solution.
I would be interested to know more about how this works. Seems like great risk to share, and so folks would want something in return. The indictments I have read support this, as most sites in those indictments make access contingent on regularly uploading fresh content.
Lessening the cost of a (partial) substitute is essentially the inverse of/same as raising the (relative, which is always relative) cost of its competitor. If competitor A lowers its price from $10 to $5, then competitor B still at $10 costs more (again relatively, but that's how people reason) even though it hasn't changed its price at all.
I don't think this opioid analogy works at all. The widespread distribution of opioids is dangerous because a response to them is universally built into the human brain. They don't become dangerous because they're widespread and your brain doesn't get "propagandized" or incentivized via a mere exposure effect/bias into liking them; they simply are effective because they directly target basic human neurology. You can not know what an opioid is at all and still be affected by it. You can think it looks dumb, smells dumb, whatever, and still be affected by it. It's not like media exposure.
Let me ask you, if there were more widespread distribution of (fake or otherwise) positive/indulgent depictions of the brutal murder of puppies, do you think people would:
A. be horrified or at least strongly disapprove of it, no matter how long this campaign went on.
B. be slowly convinced via exposure that maybe murdering puppies might be fun.
(You could also use (literally) eating shit, being castrated, and any other fully unpleasant phenomenon as an example to plug in to the same formula.)
I think the answer is obviously A. Media becomes/is widespread (in the absence of exogenous manipulation) fundamentally because it appeals to inherent preferences, not because it alters them via being more and more widespread itself in a cyclical effect. (I think it can do this especially in the immediate to some degree, but the effects are indirect and obviously limited based on the example. I wrote some other replies on this that might elaborate more.)
That is, nobody is ever worried that depictions of animal violence are going to suddenly explode in popularity and cause a wave of animal cruelty. Why is this? It seems pretty clear to me that it's because we all know there's not really any widespread desire in the general population to randomly do innocent animals harm that is just waiting to be unlocked. So why would we be worried about sexual depictions of minors if, like those who commit animal cruelty, those who are attracted to them are only a small, sick, and twisted minority...? The implication is obvious: they're not.
And given that, perhaps instead of trying to offload the issue into a matter of exposure (which is obviously an artificial excuse given the above puppy murder example), we should reckon with the clear, strong, and inherent preferences of the general population that are subtly revealed by our own fear of them. That is, we should stop living in fantasy land and address the underlying issue, which is why I think your whole point is really orthogonal to the truth because it is based in a fundamental self-deception.
Mostly how you works is that you sign up to a forum (with a username, password, maybe a fake e-mail address (if the admins are too lazy to find out how to disable this requirement in their forum software)) using standard forum software and there it all is in various categories/threads (uploaded to Javascript-free filehosters that tend to take it down, so it may not all actually be there, but the latest posted stuff usually is). It's pretty simple once you get on Tor and find the URLs (the hardest part, though you only need to find one directory URL that links everything else). You're not getting the absolute newest or rarest stuff this way usually but with a decades-long history of content there's plenty on offer.
It's not much of a risk (legally a bit more sure, but that only applies if you get caught) unless you're the one in it. If you're anonymizing your connection, then uploading is no different than downloading (that is, there's no technically reason to believe that one is more easily detectable).
Some sites do this, or have subsections accessible only for consistent uploaders and/or producers, and my explanation for this being more common in indictments is that those who regularly upload "fresh content" (that is, in many cases content potentially containing identifiable information about themselves) are far more likely to get caught.
No. This is econ 101. In fact, in the most simplistic case of substitutes, the price of B actually goes down. There is literally no sense in which its price goes up. ("Relatively" doesn't count.)
You present this as if it would be an advertising campaign. That probably wouldn't work, but that's not how it would work, anyway. What would work is slowly normalizing it through the marginal people. The ones who are already a little off, a little predisposed to violence and weird, twisted shit. And if you forcibly make the people who want to shut that down desist (while simultaneously running a propaganda campaign in universities about how we should maybe be more sensitive to the reasonable needs of such people), then you're brewing a recipe for disaster.
So yeah, if we flood the market with cheap puppy murder, we're going to get more puppy murder. Some people will obviously be horrified, but so long as your propaganda campaign can at least prevent them from taking political action against the flood of cheap puppy murder, we're gonna get more puppy murder. I don't understand how else you can possibly think this would work.
So if Wendy's halves its prices, then the relative cost of choosing McDonald's instead doesn't go up? If paper towel brand A halves its price, there is no increase in the cost, psychological, opportunity, however you want to frame it, of buying paper towel brand B at the same old price of both instead?
I'm not sure what "econ 101" you took (certainly not the same as mine) but it has zero relevance to how people actually behave in the real world. Or economics for that matter. Economics is all about resource allocation, which is all about behavior, which means relative comparisons always matter. Denying this is about the same as denying that the sky is blue.
I don't believe this, or at least I don't believe it will work equivalently. As I pointed out in another comment:
If both taboos are equally ripe for normalization in the same fashion, then how do you explain the disparity in their "natural" popularity?
"Relative" doesn't count. The cost of McDonald's stays the same or possibly goes down in response.
Did you literally just skip the part of the course on substitute goods?
"Igneous rocks are fucking bullshit." It always surprises me to see that people willingly choose to just deny the mathematics of economics when it conflicts with their political commitments. It probably shouldn't, but it still does.
Who claimed this? I didn't.
The relative cost (as in to the consumer)/price does not stay the same, as it is, well, relative and thus incapable of staying the same in relation to another changing quantity (that is, changes in relative comparisons here are not consensually initiated, same as in every other area). McDonald's does quite potentially have a natural incentive to lower their own prices as a result, but it is not a part of the hypothetical that it does. (Keep in mind that in the original point of the analogy "McDonald's" actually represents real child porn here, which is legally incapable of lowering its "cost/price" (in terms of risk etc.) on its own initiative.)
Did you? I mean there are dozens of ways I could phrase what you're blatantly wrong about in econ 101 terms: that McDonald's and Wendy's share a cross-price elasticity which means that the price of one naturally affects the demand of the other, that Wendy's lowering its price means that the opportunity cost of eating at McDonald's has gone up and the marginal utility of each dollar spent at Wendy's has also gone up, etc., but there's not really any point to that, since, again, it's basic logic, and also basic economics, that a reduction in price increases the quantity demanded.
Relative cost/price is just one way of recognizing this effect in relation to competitors (which again is barely even economic in character as relative comparisons are, also again, basic matters of logical and quantitative analysis that even Fat Tony understands when he does his grocery shopping). (So if I have stated the case previously in less economic terms that seem to superficially contradict the previous, it is only because such a basic issue quite frankly does not require the application of economic reasoning to be resolved.)
I normally simply link Wikipedia articles here to go "Remember this thing?" as opposed to actually recommending them for reading, but I think you might be genuinely served by reading this Wikipedia article as you seem to severely misunderstand the concept.
Or maybe this graph can explain:
Is that clear enough?
This would be a fine remark if what you were saying here wasn't actually what blatantly denied the "mathematics of economics". I will definitely await you finding an economist to endorse your quite frankly bizarre perspective that ratios (which I always considered a pretty well-accepted and established expressions of quantity, self-proving as they are) either don't exist or somehow magically aren't relevant to the consumer optimization that helps generate demand curves, but I have a feeling that I will be waiting a long time.
But yes, it surprises me too, especially on a forum like this, especially when there doesn't seem to be much of a rhetorical point other than... illogic? Innumeracy? I'm genuinely not trying to be uncharitable but I don't know how else to characterize your denial of basic a priori reality here. Seriously, what's going on big guy? How did you develop this odd misconception that prices cannot be compared relatively or that the comparison is behaviorally/economically meaningless and that this is all in fact somehow backed up by academic economics? Who managed to convince you that relative comparison is irrelevant to economics, and what was their reasoning? I'm genuinely curious. Perhaps I'm being trolled? Or you were? Those aren't rhetorical questions. I seriously don't know.
To me, you seemed to be claiming it. In any case I'm glad we agree then.
What happens to the actual cost?
This is not true. There are a whole host of things that can be done. Not least of which is to frustrate legal sanctions through the difficulty of distinguishing real from fake.
Making up a position that I never claimed and then seeing that I don't claim it does not imply that we agree.
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