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I do not have statistics, and I am also not sure if anyone who is not blatantly partisan has collected statistics.
Anecdotally, I think that there is a minority but significant fraction of men who assume that anyone with tits in a men's bathroom is looking for cock (and not just avoiding the queue in front of the women's bathroom). Some of these men will be willing to fuck anything which resembles a female with a pulse.
Well, I'd say whatever argument for preventing that from happening by not letting cis mes into the same room with trans women, applies to not letting trans women into the same room with cis women.
If the argument for forcing establishments, by law, to let trans women into women's bathrooms, is "well, where there really that many rapes?", that same argument should apply to just letting them go to the men's bathroom to begin with.
If you're just going to say "I don't trust either side's statistics on this", then we need a different argument entirely.
While I think that nobody deserves to get raped, I will also say that in most cultures, the behavior of a person does empirically affect their odds of being victimized. Ideally, a woman could walk naked through a biker bar without getting any unsolicited comments, but that is just not the world we are living in.
We do have strong norms against men going into the women's bathroom. We do not have strong norms against men sexualizing a person which is somewhat passing as female in the men's bathroom. Imagine a cis-he-said vs cis-she-said rape trial about some sex in a bathroom whose consent is in dispute. If it happened in the women's room, the prosecution is going to argue that the defendant is a sex pest who was intruding into women safe spaces to rape. If it happened in the men's room, then the defense is going to argue that the alleged victim clearly intruded into a space where she does not belong looking for sexual adventure. This might not decide the case -- clearly some men have consensual sex with women in the women's bathroom, and clearly some women get raped when they go into the men's bathroom just to avoid the queue, but without ironclad evidence either way, it will likely influence the jury's verdict.
Personally, I would give any m2f who is passing at more than about 50% probationary access to the women's bathroom, with the understanding that they are expected to be on their very best behavior. If you hit on people in there, flash them, masturbate in the stall, or try to look over or under the stall walls, you are out. (Incidentally, I think these are generally sane rules to enforce also for cis people in their respective bathrooms.)
Or one could tie m2f bathroom privileges to the testosterone level. Presumably, that hormone is correlated with the likelihood of someone raping, and someone on T blockers will be a lot less likely to rape than the median man. (On priors, I would expect that 80% of the men accused of rape would be in the top 50% of male T levels.)
At the end of the day, the other thing about bathroom segregation is enforcement. We probably don't want to declare any man who is in a women's bathroom a sex offender. Based on priors, the likeliest explanation is that a man who walks into a women's bathroom was just absent-minded or blackout drunk and got the wrong door, if we crucify all the men (and -- for fairness -- women in men's bathrooms) who do this this would make a massive dent in our population. So we can't get rid of the sex pests the moment we catch them in the wrong bathroom for the first time. Sure, there are certainly some sex pests who claim that they are trans and use that to annoy women in their bathroom (and we should not let them get away with that!), but I think that the median would-be rapist in a women's bathroom will not try that argue that they deserve to be there (which would entail waiting for the police, making the argument and leaving a paper trail), but simply say "oops, terribly sorry, I thought this was the men's room" and get lost.
But trans activists were arguing (and for quite a few years were very successful) for a significant exception to the norms against men going to the women's bathroom. The original interpretation of the GRA even made it illegal to refuse certain men access to the bathroom. You originally phrased your objection as one based on liberty and skepticism of solving the issue through law, and I find it odd you're glossing over this aspect now.
Maybe the pre-existing norms make it less likely for women to be raped by MTFs, then for MTFs to be raped by men, but the argument is completely speculative, while your original objection was:
So is this a practical concern for MTF GRC holders being raped by men, or is this a moral panic? I think you should answer the question the way it was asked, or concede that it was not a valid argument to begin with.
Personally, if they really feel unsafe in the men's bathroom, I'd say they can use the disabled ones. There's plenty of them, and new buildings are mandated to have them.
Sure. I think it's enough if women get to be able to scream "Eeeeek! A man!", and have the nearest security guard or concerned citizen kick the interloper out, and for establishments to be able to ban repeat offenders from their premises without exposing themselves to lawsuits.
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