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Notes -
Considering how much of current American culture war debates revolve around national identity, sovereignty, and international influence, it makes me wonder: are conflicts like Russia’s move into Ukraine and China’s posture towards Taiwan fundamentally rooted in the same security dilemma, rather than pure expansionism?
I’ve been thinking about the deeper drivers behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s stance on Taiwan.
For Russia, Ukraine joining NATO would have meant that a major military alliance would sit directly on its border, severely shrinking Russia’s strategic buffer zone. Similarly, for China, the growing U.S. military presence around Taiwan raises a direct security concern.
Since U.S.-China relations have deteriorated, there has been increasing discussion about the possibility of the U.S. deploying missiles or even establishing a permanent military presence in Taiwan. Given Taiwan’s geographic position, major Chinese cities like Fuzhou, Xiamen, and even Shanghai would fall within the range of intermediate-range missiles.
This makes the Taiwan issue not purely about nationalism or ideology, but also about very tangible security calculations.
In 2024, U.S. defense reports indicated a rising focus on “hardening Taiwan” against potential Chinese action（https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/19/2003375866/-1/-1/1/2024-NDS.PDF”
China has repeatedly emphasized that foreign military deployments in Taiwan would cross a “red line”（https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-should-stop-official-exchanges-with-taiwan-2024-03-05/）
Well FWIW Peter Zeihan is a big fan of this theory. Not sure which way it weights though, given it's Peter Zeihan.
(except that the NATO part is a red herring and is usually skipped, including by Zeihan iirc)
He's not alone, Mearsheimer's famous prediction is exactly along those lines.
But not everyone agrees with the Realist priors so the idea that GPs have spheres of influence in any legitimate sense is not consensual. There are people to this day that will say that Russia's war is illegitimate because it is illegal. Or that Ukraine being in NATO doesn't matter because Poland is already in it.
I would personally file Mearsheimer under "pure expansionism, and that's not bad", taking his arguments realistically and in good faith. His justification through spheres of influence and great powers does not require any actual threat to be present.
Zeihan is lot more straightforward, he talks about very conventional military threat, in very direct conventional sense. Like actual land invasion.
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