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Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 4, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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I'm considering selling a bunch of stock tomorrow. The tariffs appear to be real and not going away super soon. Tensions tend to build and reach a fever pitch in the summer and judging by the Karmelo Anthony/Shiloh Hendrix stuff and Trump in the White House I'm expecting this summer to be a mess. My intuition is telling me things are only going down from here. Markets in Asia have already opened way down for Monday. Sell in May sounds like a great idea.

Will definitely dump my share of Amazon. Apple got an exemption from tariffs and I'm sure they make enough of their revenue from non-hardware that I'm thinking of staying with Apple and the rest of the tech companies. Kind of tempted to just dump everything else honestly because I have such a sour outlook on the economy in the short term but I'm also up so much that I don't want to pay a ton in taxes. I might hedge my bets and sell half or less of whatever I'm worried about and then try and buy once markets have crashed. I planned to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash (earning interest) but my 10% has shrunk as the rest of the portfolio has grown around it so I could always use a bit more cash.

I guess my small-scale question is how bad of an idea would it be to liquidate everything I own tomorrow?

I think it’s a terrible idea. But if you’re going to do it you should have a very specific number at which you acknowledge you were right and buy back in for cheaper (or else you’ll watch the recovery while waiting for more down movement until prices are above what you sold them for).

Then come up with a number at which you will admit you were wrong and buy back in (or else watch it run away and pray for a pullback that may never come.)

Personally I don’t think we’ll see S&P 500 below 5300 ever again. Wall Street really didn’t want it below 5500 and it took something massive like liberation day to break past it in the first place.

The temperature has gone way down on wall street since the pause, and we found Trump’s pain tolerance limit. And China cannot wait us out—our economy is just better.