As for naivety in general, I would say that we all can make wrong judgements when we step outside of our sphere of expertise. We can be wrong even in our own areas (for example, was FDA right to approve aducanumab or not) but it tends to be corrected over time. But if I tried to make judgements when it is appropriate to increase or lower taxes depending on current state of economy, I would be wrong most of the time, even if I have some superficial understanding of macroenocomics.
Or even more science-based example – someone complained that the main bridge in our city is unsafe and should be closed immediately while some city official publicly announced that it is only a rumour and the bridge is safe. Whom to believe? I wouldn't know unless I had spent really long time studying dynamics of bridge safety. It was a true case that happened 5 years ago in Latvia but the bridge is still standing and in use.
That doesn't always work because you have to make decisions sometimes. For example, to get covid vaccine or not. You may not trust doctors but without vaccine you could be fired from your job. That would make you even less to trust doctors even if you don't trust antivax particularly. Not an easy decision to make.
No, I need something to trust before I make a voluntary decision.
I mean, I can be forced to make a decision. If someone threatens me, I would comply. But to make a decision, for example, get a covid booster or not, is based on my understanding and trust in the benefit or absence of any benefit.
No, I need something to trust before I make a voluntary decision.
No, you don't.
If you are thinking about asking a woman out, do you need to trust that she will say "yes" before making the decision to ask her out?
If you are thinking on rolling dice, do you need to trust that you will get a 7 before making the decision to roll the dice?
I don't understand how people don't even realize how they make decisions. Many of the decisions you make are based on chance, not trust, and most you are not even aware that you made them.
No, my medical decisions are not like asking a woman out.
Yes they are. Rational medical decisions are based on probability, not trust.
I decided to use masks, did I trust that they would work? No.
I decided not to take any COVID-19 shot, did I trust that they weren't safe? No.
Of course, you can make them like rolling a dice but that's not the best way.
You can deny that you rolled the dice all you want, but you did. Rolling a die that has 99% chance of winning is still rolling the dice. You could have been wrong.
If you have 100% certainty that your medical decision is going to be correct, you are simply not rational.
And this is a red herring. You are basically saying "medical decisions are not black swans", but they don't have to be (even though they are), I showed you black swans. Your white swans are irrelevant. Case closed.
If I can show you 10 black swans that prove you wrong, you are just going to deny reality.
I decided not to wear masks because I had no evidence that I could trust. Sometimes I was wearing masks anyway because the state compelled me.
I was ok with taking first 2 covid shots because I trusted the evidence that I had about its effectiveness. I did not trust the evidence about booster shot effectiveness but took it anyway because the state required it for me to travel within the EU. I didn't take any subsequent boosters because the state didn't require them and I didn't trust the evidence.
That's how I operate. I don't understand about rolling a die. I can trust the evidence of the medicine with understanding that it is not 100% certainty. Especially if I know that the medicine works, for example, in 80% or 60% people taking it.
Medical decisions are not black swans because they are completely different things. Black swans are unpredicted events. Medical decision is not an event but a decision. I don't know how to compare them.
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Notes -
As for naivety in general, I would say that we all can make wrong judgements when we step outside of our sphere of expertise. We can be wrong even in our own areas (for example, was FDA right to approve aducanumab or not) but it tends to be corrected over time. But if I tried to make judgements when it is appropriate to increase or lower taxes depending on current state of economy, I would be wrong most of the time, even if I have some superficial understanding of macroenocomics.
Or even more science-based example – someone complained that the main bridge in our city is unsafe and should be closed immediately while some city official publicly announced that it is only a rumour and the bridge is safe. Whom to believe? I wouldn't know unless I had spent really long time studying dynamics of bridge safety. It was a true case that happened 5 years ago in Latvia but the bridge is still standing and in use.
If you don't know who to believe, then don't believe anyone. Why must people trust anybody?
That doesn't always work because you have to make decisions sometimes. For example, to get covid vaccine or not. You may not trust doctors but without vaccine you could be fired from your job. That would make you even less to trust doctors even if you don't trust antivax particularly. Not an easy decision to make.
You don't need to trust anyone to make a decision. Nor do you need to believe anything.
No, I need something to trust before I make a voluntary decision.
I mean, I can be forced to make a decision. If someone threatens me, I would comply. But to make a decision, for example, get a covid booster or not, is based on my understanding and trust in the benefit or absence of any benefit.
No, you don't.
If you are thinking about asking a woman out, do you need to trust that she will say "yes" before making the decision to ask her out?
If you are thinking on rolling dice, do you need to trust that you will get a 7 before making the decision to roll the dice?
I don't understand how people don't even realize how they make decisions. Many of the decisions you make are based on chance, not trust, and most you are not even aware that you made them.
No, my medical decisions are not like asking a woman out.
Of course, you can make them like rolling a dice but that's not the best way. The whole medical history has led us to this point that we don't.
Yes they are. Rational medical decisions are based on probability, not trust.
I decided to use masks, did I trust that they would work? No.
I decided not to take any COVID-19 shot, did I trust that they weren't safe? No.
You can deny that you rolled the dice all you want, but you did. Rolling a die that has 99% chance of winning is still rolling the dice. You could have been wrong.
If you have 100% certainty that your medical decision is going to be correct, you are simply not rational.
And this is a red herring. You are basically saying "medical decisions are not black swans", but they don't have to be (even though they are), I showed you black swans. Your white swans are irrelevant. Case closed.
If I can show you 10 black swans that prove you wrong, you are just going to deny reality.
I decided not to wear masks because I had no evidence that I could trust. Sometimes I was wearing masks anyway because the state compelled me.
I was ok with taking first 2 covid shots because I trusted the evidence that I had about its effectiveness. I did not trust the evidence about booster shot effectiveness but took it anyway because the state required it for me to travel within the EU. I didn't take any subsequent boosters because the state didn't require them and I didn't trust the evidence.
That's how I operate. I don't understand about rolling a die. I can trust the evidence of the medicine with understanding that it is not 100% certainty. Especially if I know that the medicine works, for example, in 80% or 60% people taking it.
Medical decisions are not black swans because they are completely different things. Black swans are unpredicted events. Medical decision is not an event but a decision. I don't know how to compare them.
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