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The chances of Germany attacking the USSR prior to 1941 was very high. The evidence was that Germans thought of themselves as higher race and it was only a question of time when they would attack all other countries, including the USSR.

The strength of the evidence can vary – from very weak to very strong. I wouldn't be able to predict anything without strong evidence. You try to confuse absence of evidence with evidence of absence.

My Bayesian sense says that you are a Russian troll.

The following evidence is present:

  1. new account, not much engagement

  2. you write very confusing things, do not stay on topic and then demand (yes, you demand) – “please explain this or that”.

  3. you support extreme point of view

  4. your answers are being regularly downvoted

Any evidence against?

motteposting has been around for a while. You may not find his arguments convincing, and I suppose it's possible Russia actually pays people to shitpost on small obscure message boards as well as reddit, but I find your "Bayesian reasoning" extremely weak and I'm going to ask you not call people Russian trolls without stronger evidence than "you have extreme views and get downvoted a lot" (which would apply to many posters here). Even if, hypothetically, you are right, what do you think calling someone out as a Russian troll does? He'll unmask and say "Curses! I'd have gotten away with it if not for you!" like a Scooby Doo villain? All it does is increase the antagonism. If you genuinely think someone is a troll, downvote them, report their posts (if you can point to rulebreaking conduct), and do not engage.

I am sorry for what I said. Will stop engaging and will try to avoid from this behaviour in the future. Thanks for the advice.

Never thought I’d see the day on this site when someone would say, “you’re wrong because you’re being downvoted.” I doubt that any further engagement here would be productive.

(And I’d been posting for years under this same name on the original subreddit, thank you very much.)

Wrong? No, it was that you are likely a troll. That's the downvoting is for, it's intended purpose to show which comments are worse than others.

Neither follows from my being downvoted, so that seems like a distinction without a difference.