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Notes -
Do it.
Please.
I beg you.
Run the numbers on it all.
Give me some evidence that counteracts what appears to be a very clear trend.
Also, your criteria probably excludes 95+% of the black male population.
I'll caveat right away that these numbers are coming from Grok (and Grok is pulling from academic sources that are worse than just an LLM); I don't trust them, you shouldn't trust them, yada yada. two links, because I derped on setting up the first (yes, I shouldn't have asked about the felony one first; everything else got obsessed with race.).
"Thus, 35-45% of 52-68% yields an estimate of 18-31% of American men aged 19-30 having both an income above $50,000 and stable employment."
"To estimate the percentage of American men aged 19-30 who are both emotionally stable and have no history of interpersonal or domestic violence:[...] Assuming independence (a simplification, as mental health issues like PTSD or substance abuse can correlate with IPV perpetration), we multiply the probabilities: 0.80 × 0.70 to 0.85 × 0.75 = 56-64%. If we account for correlation (e.g., mental distress increasing IPV likelihood), the range might be slightly lower, around 50-60%."
"Thus, an estimated 16.4 to 18.2 million American men aged 19–30 are not obese [ed: 60%], based on recent data."
"Approximately 80–89% of American men aged 19–30 would not cheat in a relationship given the opportunity, based on reported infidelity rates and adjusted for hypothetical temptation." [ed: I told you I don't trust the LLM]
"Approximately 40–60% of American men aged 19–30 are fiscally responsible, defined as regularly saving, budgeting, and managing debt without significant financial strain. This range accounts for the variability in financial independence and literacy among young adults."
"Approximately 65–75% of American men aged 19–30 have not fathered a child."
"Approximately 65–75% of American men aged 19–30 have not had more than five previous real-life sexual partners, based on CDC data, General Social Survey findings, and recent trends in sexual inactivity"
One that pidgeon didn't cover, but I think you are motioning around:
Add them together, and Grok says:
[caveat: it did so with the formula "0.65 × 0.30 × 0.80 × 0.60 × 0.80 × 0.40 × 0.65 × 0.65 ≈ 0.0092". Don't trust LLMs!]
And this doesn't include stuff like orientation (despite what you'd think from the yaoi fans, there's a lot of distrust of actual bi guys among women) or student debt or willingness-to-have-kids or whether they're already married. It still leaves a gender gap, but given that the 'seekers' approach was comparing two decades of men against one decade of women, that's not really surprising.
I think that's bad in a different sense; having the vast majority of both gender 'not count' suggests that we're measuring the wrong thing.
((And I think this sort of button-pushing is itself dangerous, in the sense that it's letting both of us do harder statistical analysis without the gut-level integration of the knowledge that adding multiple filters after each other breaks apart comparisons.))
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I went and fed the initial criteria I listed through Gemma 3, had to correct it for one misunderstanding it made. It gave between 4.3% and 11.2% of the US male population.I fed it through a Deepseek R1 Distill to see if a reasoning model went about it a different way. The reasoning chain, the way it tried to guesstimate, was wild. Still, it came up with 5-10%, so roughly similar.
Strikethrough: Sorry, just realised I also forgot to tell it this is of SINGLE men, so the numbers are probably significantly lower. I'll prompt again.
And I'm sure I could add criteria. I forgot to ask them for cishet men, I forgot to tell them to exclude men above a certain age.
If you want to put a ceiling on body count for women, it'd be fair to put a floor on it for men; at least 1 partner; virginity is not attractive for men, it's lack of social proof. Maybe if we wanted to be more fair we could put a specific age to them. A floor of 1 partner for men after 20, a ceiling of 5 partners for women before 25.
*SUBSEQUENT EDIT: I reran the numbers with SINGLE men and cishet, and it gave less than 2% of men fulfilling these criteria. Note that I don't trust AI estimates for these since it uses extremely simplistic analysis and can't really account for correlation between criteria appropriately, and tends to mix specifics in ways they shouldn't (compared US-wide salaries to rents in highly inflated high cost of living areas) but I think for both men and women, with my and your criteria, we're probably both in single digit percentages.
If you want to see this as a blackpill, go ahead, but I think both criteria sets probably are too restrictive. Women probably shouldn't be looking only for men who are financially capable of being single income breadwinners, men probably shouldn't be looking at education debt and >5 body count as dealbreakers.
As for the large contingent who fall short of these criteria, they'll end up matching with one another.
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