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You are asking for non-public numbers that being a non-public company SpaceX is under no obligation to provide. The current best guess is that Starlink (and its defense version Starshield) account for roughly 2/3rds of the company's revenue, and since most of that is for actual services rather than hardware it probably has a decent profit margin, but everyone has their own assumptions.
I know Musk is one of the richest people on Earth, but even he doesn't have unlimited cash to throw at a failing endevour. Jeff Bezos is also one of the richest people on Earth, and his rocket company Blue Origin is actually older, but has done far, far less in that same timeframe. If I get to invest my own cash, I'd put it 100% with SpaceX.
I know, that's my point. My entire argument is that he's setting money on fire for gimmicks, and that if said gimmicks won't provide an actual return on investment, the parts of his companies that are bringing in revenue won't be enough to cover for the losses. To that I'm met with an endless stream of "but look at all the launches" arguments, that never actually show said launches are bringing enough profit to bailout projects like Starship, let alone the decline of Tesla.
Even though they're not selling a lot of hardware, they still need to make a lot of it to maintain the service. Starlink satelites have a 5 year lifespan. They need to keep making, and putting them into orbit. If launching them with Falcon was enough to justify the company's existence, I doubt he'd be trying to make Starship the Next Big Thing so quickly.
Correct, this is why I called him "a dead man walking".
Okay, but let me turn the argument around- prove that the launches are not making a profit. You say they are just setting money on fire. I say that is a ridiculously high number of launches to just burn piles of money on, it's an order of magnitude more than their nearest commercial competitor, and if they were not making money there is no way that even Musk could bankroll it. A handful of launches to prove concepts? Sure, its an investment. But you need paying customers within about your first 5 or 10 rockets, and you need to be making money not too long after that.
We have examples of what vanity space companies funded by billionaires look like- Virgin Galactic is one, Blue Origin another. SpaceX does not look very much like these companies. It does look a lot more like actually profitable commercial space launch entities like ULA and ATK, except with what appears to be far superior design and operations.
I professionally walk in aerospace circles, and while I dont work for SpaceX, I've worked with them on some stuff, and they by and large come off as an incredibly serious, cost-focused entity. Far more so than even "legacy space" they are beating the pants off of at the moment.
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