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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025

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Identities are a basic check to make sure you're not getting something totally wrong. If you think the government deficit is a bad thing that should be reduced, you have to explain why you think that of the non-government surplus as well. It is quite literally the same thing. As Kelton said in that presentation, people goof up on this all the time. The WSJ in the late clinton years proudly proclaiming in one column "isn't this wonderful? This is the longest sustained budget surplus since 1929!" while the next column over is hand-wringing "this is very worrying, the private sector savings are plummeting!".

Private savings don't have to be in T-Bills. To the extent the market is flooded with them, they crowd out private investment and savings in private instruments.

Still, the real reason government deficits are bad is that the bulk of government spending is bad. Transfer programs for the poor and elderly, government schools, subsidies for corn farmers, etc. When you spend money on these things you are buying fairly useless products, employing people in positions where they would be better for the country if they were employed elsewhere, etc. So even if some amount of T-bill generation each year is actually good, it would be best achieved by funding courts and police and setting taxes near to zero.

Private savings don't have to be in T-Bills. To the extent the market is flooded with them, they crowd out private investment and savings in private instruments.

There's no crowding out there, it's just a price effect. The government sets the risk-free rate, and others price risk premiums on top of that. Finance is infinitely available: price not quantity.

So even if some amount of T-bill generation each year is actually good, it would be best achieved by funding courts and police and setting taxes near to zero.

That's exactly right, that's why we fight (politically) for our preferred outcomes. It's just a mistake to say the deficit has anything to do with the size of government or what we prioritize doing in the public sector. The size of the government deficit & debt have to do with the savings desires of the populace. So it's just the wrong target to look at.