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I agree that Vance has the status of "most likely endorsee" now, but Trump is not known for sticking with decisions in the face of events. Trump could decide to endorse a dynastic successor, he could try to run for a third term (which Vance would have to discredit himself with the median voter by playing along with until Trump agreed the game was up). More likely, they could just have a falling out. Trump switching his endorsement to Rubio because Vance didn't clap loudly enough is totally in character.
My wild-ass guess probabilities, conditional on Trump not being dead or unconcealably senile by summer 2028 are:
I agree with you that if an apparently-compos mentis Trump endorses a non-family member then the Republican primary is basically sown up. DeSantisism is right-populist substance but without the reality-TV sideshows Trump generates, and there is no appetite for it among Red tribers in the country. I think this applies even if the endorsee is an obscure MAGA state legislator or a TV personality with no political experience. Even if Trump does endorse a family member, I think the MAGA vote is strong enough that the endorsee still has a >50% chance of winning a Republican primary.
A significant part of the upside for Vance is the chance that he will become President because Trump (who will be 82 when he leaves office) dies or has a disqualifying medical event that can't be covered up leading to the 25th being invoked. This is a good enough shot at the White House that an ambitious politician would take it even if there was zero chance of a 2028 run.
No, Desantis is incredibly popular. He just ran a bad campaign.
He may be popular, but his popularity didn't open up any political space for a non-Trump right-populist candidate. The MAGA voter base appear to want the aesthetics of Trumpery as much as they want the right-populist policy substance.
In a hypothetical open field (say Trump had a heart attack in 2021), I think De Santis was the clear favourite in 2024. He is still a serious candidate (I think Abbott would be a narrow favourite) in the hypothetical where there is somehow an open Republican primary in 2028. But the question in this thread is whether he has any chance against a Trump-endorsed candidate, or an incumbent JD Vance if Trump is dead. He didn't run a good campaign in 2024 because there was no good campaign a right-populist could run with Trump in the race. And I think he faces the same lack of political space against any serious Trump-endorsed candidate in 2028.
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