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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 16, 2025

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How is convincing western populations not to do this going?

You say this as if there is some consensus effort to try to convince them of this. The reality is that for quite a while now, the dominant consensus has been trying to accomplish the opposite. Unless you think this is just a fully-general argument against any sort of minority view. Like, communism must be wrong, not because it's conceptually wrong or anything, but because it hasn't convinced enough westerners to be communist, for example. This seems like a very strange claim.

My claim is that anyone who says "we should simply tell them to not have sex" as a method of preventing unwanted babies is being willfully ignorant of the fact it's been conclusively demonstrated not to work

anyone who says "we should simply tell them to not have sex"

Good thing I'm not doing that. Perhaps I need to repeat my claims?

We did a bit of a dosey do here.

I responded to a guy (who I now realize is not you) who was saying "don't have premarital sex" by being snippy, then you responded to my response with something that I actually agree with but was kind of different than what I was saying, so I felt slightly confused and restated what I was going at to clarify.

I don't think society is pushing "don't have premarital sex" , it obviously isn't. My point is that saying something like "our society should push not having premarital sex" is stupid because it doesn't work. It's basically "Santa Clause for Christmas I'd like a pony" level of policy discussion.

My point is that saying something like "our society should push not having premarital sex" is stupid because it doesn't work.

I'm not sure how I would analyze that. Someone in the past might have said that it was similarly stupid to push not smoking. Yet, we did, and major changes occurred. There are all sorts of mechanisms by which a society could push such a thing. Those various mechanisms might have different effects. It's pretty strange to me to lump them all together carelessly. It seems to be actively missing the point to lump them all under "we should simply tell them to not have sex", as if they're all actually equivalent to that. I think it would have been similarly stupid to say that all methods of pushing to reduce smoking are equivalent to "simply telling people to not smoke".

My main point is that it's doubly difficult to analyze how effective various methods could be, given a society that has been pushing for ubiquitous premarital sex for decades. It's just seriously difficult to reason about, and flippant takes like yours are not even really serious attempts at doing so.

EDIT: I will note that my original response was with respect to your statement:

How is convincing western populations not to do this going?

Again, this makes it sound like this is a thing that is actively being pursued. That's sort of the opposite of reality.

Again, this makes it sound like this is a thing that is actively being pursued. That's sort of the opposite of reality.

It has been actively pursued for decades by a small subset of people (Evangelical Christians) who genuinely believe in it. They were ignored because they were a minority who were unsuccessful in convincing others. Which is rather the point here.

Which is rather the point here.

Sorry, I don't get what is rather the point here. Can you spell it out?

Well, the argument seems to be that we should try pushing abstinence (though social pressure and/or government policy) programs. The first hurdle is convincing enough of the public to join you in lobbying for it. Evangelical Christians have tried promoting abstinence since more or less forever, but over time they've largely lost relevance socially and politically. Their failure to gain support is some amount of evidence that that abstinence is truly the unfavored social position.

Abstinence has historically been promoted through shame. And as progressives seem to be currently finding out, the minority can't effectively shame the majority.

Right, so the opposite is currently being pursued by the majority, as I was saying.

The argument, as I understand it, was originally some form of:

  1. Abstinence is currently being heavily pushed by society. (This assumption was hidden and turns out to be wrong.)
  2. This heavy push is failing for reasons. ("How's that going?")
  3. Therefore, the idea is conceptually flawed, for reasons.

You and I seem to agree that the first premise is false. I'm not really sure what other point you have. Perhaps it's this bit:

The first hurdle is convincing enough of the public to join you in lobbying for it.

Sure. Obviously, that's a challenge. But it's sort of irrelevant to the original discussion? Unless you view this as a fully-general argument against any sort of minority view? Like, sure, any minority view on any topic has a hurdle of convincing enough of the public to join you in lobbying for it. That's not particularly novel or useful to discuss. Communists and libertarians and trans activists and neoluddites and... and... are all aware that they have minority views that they would like to promote more widely.

Evangelical Christians have tried promoting abstinence since more or less forever, but over time they've largely lost relevance socially and politically. Their failure to gain support is some amount of evidence that that abstinence is truly the unfavored social position.

Various minority views have had upswings and downswings. The slavery abolitionists, the anti-alcohol folks, the pro-alcohol folks, the anti-smoking folks, the eugenics folks, the pro/anti-police/surveillance folks, the free marketers and the regulators, etc. Sometimes it's hard to tell whether it's an issue that will shift, won't shift, will stay perpetually divisive (e.g. abortion), or whatever. Duly noted and agreed that the predominant swing for several decades has been pro-premarital sex (and a variety of related issues). That was actually my point.

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