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naraburns  nihil supernum  3yr ago (text post)   33324 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022

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All this makes sense given that aircraft carriers are now more or less sitting ducks in the SCS given China's massive and rapidly growing missile inventory, many who can hit moving targets and that's even excluding hitting stationary ones such as airbases on islands,

You're operating under the premise that only China has long-range weapons and the will to use them. Possibly true for the latter part, but if you're China, do you take the bet that your A2/AD is sufficient to prevent the US from interfering with your (incredibly vulnerable) amphibious operation, or do you take the first strike and hope that whole "awakening a sleeping giant" thing was a one-off that only works against Japan?

The entire campaign will start with a blockade of Taiwan. At that point, the US can either dedicate resources to break the blockade in perpetuity or it can capitulate. If we go with the former, China would start sinking US ships in a way that is still significantly less provocative than Pearl Harbor. Regardless, there's not much the US can do short of war; and a state of war exposes US assets to China's A2/AD and must be maintained indefinitely.

An amphibious invasion can take place at a time of China's choosing and may not even be necessary; there's no particular reason to invade Taiwan while US missiles still can sink half your fleet.

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