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A few years ago I would have predicted this. China would offer to Taiwan what Hong Kong gets: limited local rule and also some CCP oversight. But now the CCP has cracked down on Hong Kong. So Taiwanese people know what kind of repression they face if they peaceably submit.
There's either some brilliant 4D chess going on here or the CCP doesn't have a sensible plan. This may be some scorpion and the frog situation in which the CCP can't resist ugly crackdowns even when it would be to their advantage.
Edit: Fresh Hong Kong news today. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/10/asia/jimmy-lai-hong-kong-prison-intl-hnk This is the future of Taiwanese elite if they peaceably join the mainland. Assets seized, businesses shut down, reasons found to imprison them, etc. The peaceful option is being thoroughly destroyed.
That’s what we said about Russia re Ukraine, then Putin just went Leroy Jenkins on them.
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