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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 14, 2025

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Prediction- the GOP retains and increases its dominance at the national level due to a confluence of factors, some structural-constitutional and some by being blessed with insane enemies. Their performance in government is consistently lackluster; the solution to the exploding debt continues to be inflation and lying, the ideologues migrate to state level politics and the national US government becomes increasingly corrupt due to one party dominance. The long term trend in by-group TFR continues where the red tribe takes, and holds long term, status as the highest-TFR major group. US population peaks in the 2040's, and social security's decline in real dollar amounts becomes unfixable. This leads to a real estate price decline as seniors tap into their sources of wealth.

The labor market remains strong for blue collar workers but experiences ups and downs, and slow wage growth, for white collar workers. The population concentrates in a relatively smaller number of cities; for status seekers, this timeline sucks. For second tier cities, it's awesome.