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I am a person who tends to resist conspiracy theories - could be described as other in this thread have said as a "nothing-ever-happens" guy. So I'll just go through some of your points and talk about why they don't seem dispositive of much to me.
With respect to the guards, very easy for me to chalk this up to an American prison system that doesn't really care about the well-being of its inmates and is content to hire low-paid grunts to perform thankless security work.
As for the cameras being down, I'm not aware of how extensive that problem was. Were only the cameras in front of his cell down? Was there a more systematic issue throughout the prison? Had this been happening for months, or were the cameras fine until the night of his death? I'm not sure I've seen people come with data about these questions. So I don't have much to do with the cameras being down absent that further context.
It's suspicious for sure. But I guess I find some kind of nightly reset that happens at 11:59 every night plausible. Of course if that is well known, it's also the perfect time to do something nefarious - but the video also isn't even an angle that is very relevant to Epstein's cell and I believe I've read that there were hallways into Epstein's cell that wouldn't require going through this camera angle, so why would it matter anyway.
Epstein claiming he's calling his dead mother sounds like the behavior of somebody going through severe mental anguish that might ultimately lead them to suicide. What would be the reason he claimed he called his mother in the scenario where he had no plans to kill himself? It's some kind of coded signal that means "I'm perfectly well and have no plans hang myself?" Why not just say that directly?
Lawyers gonna lawyer. They can always find an expert witness to defend their side of the case. I don't know how the legal payments work, but could they just be extracting more money from the Epstein estate for as long as they are able to? With respect to the actual facts, I have no idea whether they are more likely to indicate homicide or strangulation.
A little sus, but the essence of what happened here is that a Republican US District Attorney for South Florida was elevated to a cabinet level position by a Republican politician from South Florida.
This doesn't make any sense to me. If he was going to distance himself, why not leave the administration well before Epstein was even arrested again. And it's not a coincidence he left around that time - he left directly because of Epstein's arrest and the public's subsequent heightened awareness of the 2008 sweetheart deal he made.
Very easy for me to chalk this up to Bondi being a populist buffoon who had been either convinced that there definitely was a there there and was confident she would find something, or she might have just wanted to sound really confident and cool on her Fox News hit. I watched that live while at the gym and that's what I thought at the time; it did not give me any impression that files with any new substance would actually be released. She just fucked up because she wanted to deliver something to the part of Trump's base that really cares about this.
The connections to Mossad through Maxwell are somewhat odd. But he seemed to very publicly have these connections, right? His friendship with Maxwell seems to have been no secret, nor are Maxwell's father's connections to Mossad. I'm not claiming anybody that interacted with them knew of these connections (though they probably could have if they were powerful people and did any bit of research on the people they were going to engage in sketchy behavior with), only claiming that Epstein would not exactly be the most subtle Mossad agent of all time. The connections were there in plain sight for anybody with interest to do so to discover.
I don't know how to answer this question. Definitely video footage of people strangling Epstein would convince me. Anybody (prison guards, Alex Acosta) going on record claiming knowledge or evidence of the conspiracy. But it is tough to know exactly would tip the scales short of those things.
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