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Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 11, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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How many people are persuaded by watching a debate?

Popular streamer Destiny once remarked that in a public debate, only 20% are open to having their minds changed (though you can also seed doubt in your opposition's supporters), and he targets the audience with that figure in mind. Pew suggests that only 10% of people in the 2016 election decided their votes during/just after the presidential debates, but 25% said the debates were very important in helping decide who to vote for.

It seems to me that a lot of people have opinions on how large or decisive this group is without actually knowing how many people are in it.

An individual debate isn't a single event that either changes minds or doesn't, it's a part of a larger-scale process - you might hear some ideas in a debate, disagree with them - maybe hear them many times over the next year, argue against them yourself, agree with some parts but not others, observe some of your friends or people you follow on social media agree - and only then come around a bit. Almost nobody changes their mind over one debate, and even when a particular event changes someone's mind, it's almost always building on years of other things.

So it depends on the 'debate'! A public political debate between candidate X and Y serves a different role than e.g. the serial debates destiny engages in. One might want to get one's ideas and name out there in a "debate", one might want to persuade swing voters now, etc.

So 'being persuaded directly by debate' is a very nebulous idea. Also, it'll depend a lot on how skilled and convincing participants are - you might be more persuaded by Cicero's speeches than by kamala or pence in the vp debates!

So I don't think this is a question that can be answered generally.

Of course a "debate" is one of many ways to convince people - long-form writing, jokes, influential people stating support, art or literature or other aesthetic presentations, soft or hard coercion, etc. And all of these might work together!