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It's not so much motivated reasoning as trusting your gut, and a big part of making your gut reliable is being able to tell the difference between what you think is true, and what you want to be true. While at this point I do have some ego invested in this, I think being right would be worse for me than being wrong. All I win if I'm right is an ego boost, but I lose one of the biggest social media platforms that single-handedly turned the socio-political tide away from a thousand years of darkness that I was foreseeing. If l'm wrong all I lose is some ego, but gain the ability to go on a moon fly-by cruise, or some crazy shit like this.
Now you may say that your decision is also not motivated, and you're just trusting your gut. That's fine, may the best gut win.
It's not about "Elon Time", it's about "Elon Hype". The problem with the Hyperloop wasn't the timing, it was that the idea was retarded. Same with the Cybertruck. The Boring Company might have been cool, if it actually delivered super-cheap tunnels, but I don't think they really outperformed anyone on the matter of costs. Tesla has a whole bunch of products in the pipeline now that were announced as revolutionary, just as the Cybertruck was, and are likely tu suffer a similar fate. A Robotaxi that needs a worker constantly holding his hand at an emergency shutdown trigger is no Robotaxi. This stuff is going to keep repeating with FSD, Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus.
Now maybe, just maybe, SpaceX still has the mojo, but I'm not counting on it.
Yeah, that's my preferred way of dealing with it as well, for privacy reasons.
That's an interesting take, I suppose it would explain why he keeps making these "Mars update" speeches. OTOH, I don't think there's a lot things that could demotivate you more, as working for someone who keeps promising insane achievements are just around the corner, while being the grunt charged with actually achieving them, and who knows exactly how far away you actually are from it. Ask me how I know.
That kinda makes me think that the buyback was about maintaining control, rather than any sort of investment (and strictly speaking, how could it be otherwise? They've spent money that could have gone on development, in order to buy paper).
Isn't that underperforming relative to what was promised to investors? I think I heard the somewhere it should have been 20 million by now.
We've got a deal, then! See you in 2029 (other geopolitical events, the existence of TheMotte, etc, willing). Want to let me know a "default" charity pick for if and when you win, in case I can't track you down then?
In an estimate from ten years ago, when they were trying to round up a bunch of investment at a $12B valuation? Yeah, they're behind that schedule, but it's hardly a promise. Investors who want a promise 10 years out are currently happy to buy T-bills at 4.25%. Probably some investors gave up during the latest ($400B valuation) buyback, and have had to dry their tears with wads of $50s instead of $100s.
That said, I'm not a SpaceX investor (except indirectly via Alphabet) and don't plan to be; I'm just refuting the idea that they're dependent on continuing investment for continuing R&D funding. Their investment over their whole history appears to be less than their revenue in 2024 alone.
Right now it would either be Genspect or Themis Resource Fund, I think the latter should stay relevant even if, god willing, the whole trans mania finally blows over. If not, some kind of uncucked Free Software org, but I don't have specific recommendations here, since they tend to be subject to corporate and progressive takeovers.
You?
I'll say Helen Keller International; if for some reason I win but neither they nor I are around then go ahead and take your pick of Free Software orgs.
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