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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 9, 2023

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There's a concept in international relations where you can mortgage your not-yet-realized future power and wield some of it in the present. For example, Indonesia has 275 million inhabitants, it's the 4th most populous country in the world. In theory, as countries are supposed to converge in prosperity, Indonesia should become quite powerful. So they get more influence on the basis they'll soon be stronger than they are, it would be foolish to anger them now while they're weak and then have to deal with them when they're strong.

Of course, this ignores geography, resources, political stability, organization and HBD. I think Australia is the more useful ally, Australia has gas, iron, coal, uranium, surplus agricultural production for export... Even though Australia has a smaller economy and low prospects for growth, Australia will retain greater power and influence IMO.

In addition to the size of one's economy it's important to consider how much wealth one can mobilize. 19th century Russia was a large and populous economy but couldn't mobilize most of its wealth since a lot of it was locked down in subsistence agriculture. Much of modern India's wealth is similarly locked or tied up in basic state-maintenance tasks, it can't be wielded so easily. There's a vast gulf in organization-skills between Indian military procurement and Chinese procurement. China is pumping out modern frigates and destroyers, fielding hundreds of 5th gen aircraft, India has managed 40 small 4.5 gen aircraft and has no stealth aircraft at all.

Pakistan at least has a superpower sponsor in China and nuclear weapons but I am similarly skeptical as to how the other poor countries will perform. Iran is also pretty capable, they're able to contest the West in the Middle East.